On the skill of raw and post-processed ensemble seasonal meteorological forecasts in Denmark

This study analyzes the quality of the raw and post-processed seasonal forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System 4. The focus is given to Denmark, located in a region where seasonal forecasting is of special difficulty. The extent to which there are improvements after post-processing is investigated. We make use of two techniques, namely linear scaling or delta change (LS) and quantile mapping (QM), to daily bias correct seasonal ensemble predictions of hydrologically relevant variables such as precipitation, temperature and reference evapotranspiration (ET0). Qualities of importance in this study are the reduction of bias and the improvement in accuracy and sharpness over ensemble climatology. Statistical consistency and its improvement is also examined. Raw forecasts exhibit biases in the mean that have a spatiotemporal variability more pronounced for precipitation and temperature. This variability is more stable for ET0 with a consistent positive bias. Accuracy is higher than ensemble climatology for some months at the first month lead time only and, in general, ECMWF System 4 forecasts tend to be sharper. ET0 also exhibits an underdispersion issue, i.e., forecasts are narrower than their true uncertainty level. After correction, reductions in the mean are seen. This, however, is not enough to ensure an overall higher level of skill in terms of accuracy, although modest improvements are seen for temperature and ET0, mainly at the first month lead time. QM is better suited to improve statistical consistency of forecasts that exhibit dispersion issues, i.e., when forecasts are consistently overconfident. Furthermore, it also enhances the accuracy of the monthly number of dry days to a higher extent than LS. Caution is advised when applying a multiplicative factor to bias correct variables such as precipitation. It may overestimate the ability that LS has in improving sharpness when a positive bias in the mean exists.</p

Impact of urban geology on model simulations of shallow groundwater levels and flow paths

This study examines the impact of urban geology and spatial discretization on the simulation of shallow groundwater levels and flow paths at the city scale. The study uses an integrated hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE code that couples surface water and 3D groundwater simulations with a leaky sewer system. The effect of the geological configuration was analyzed by applying three geological models to an otherwise identical hydrological model. The effect of spatial discretization was examined by using two different horizontal discretizations for the hydrological models of 50 and 10 m, respectively. The impact of the geological configuration and spatial discretization was analyzed based on model calibration, simulations of high water levels, and particle tracking. The results show that a representation of the subsurface infrastructure, and near-terrain soil types, in the geological model impacts the simulation of the high water levels when the hydrological model is simulated in a 10 m discretization. This was detectable even though the difference between the geological models only occurs in 7 % of the volume of the geological models. When the hydrological model was run in a 50 m horizontal discretization, the impact of the urban geology on the high water levels was smoothed out. Results from particle tracking show that representing the subsurface infrastructure in the hydrological model changed the particles' flow paths and travel time to sinks in both the 50 and 10 m horizontal discretization of the hydrological model. It caused less recharge to deeper aquifers and increased the percentage of particles flowing to saturated-zone drains and leaky sewer pipes. In conclusion, the results indicate that even though the subsurface infrastructure and fill material only occupy a small fraction of the shallow geology, it affects the simulation of local water levels and substantially alters the flow paths. The comparison of the spatial discretization demonstrates that, to simulate this effect, the spatial discretization needs to be of a scale that represents the local variability in the shallow urban geology.</p

Component analysis of nutritionally rich chloroplasts: recovery from conventional and unconventional green plant species

A study of the literature indicates that chloroplasts synthesise a range of molecules, many of which have nutritional value for humans, but as yet no one has established the nutritional credentials of chloroplasts recovered from plant cells. Chloroplast-rich-fractions (CRFs) were prepared from green plant species and the macro- and micronutrient composition compared with the whole leaf materials (WLMs). The results indicated that, on a dry weight basis, CRF material from a range of green biomass was enriched in lipids and proteins, and in a range of micronutrients compared with the WLM. Vitamins E, pro-vitamin A, and lutein were all greater in CRF preparations. Of the minerals, iron was most notably concentrated in CRF. Spinach CRFs possessed the highest α-tocopherol (62 mg 100 g-1 , dry weight (DW)), β-carotene (336 mg 100 g- 1 DW) and lutein (341 mg 100 g-1 DW) contents, whilst grass CRFs had the highest concentration of alpha-linolenic acid (ALA) (69.5 mg g-1). The higher concentrations of α-tocopherol, β-carotene, lutein, ALA and trace minerals (Fe and Mn) in CRFs suggest their potential use as concentrated ingredients in food formulations deficient in these nutrients

The serine protease domain of MASP-3: enzymatic properties and crystal structure in complex with ecotin.

International audienceMannan-binding lectin (MBL), ficolins and collectin-11 are known to associate with three homologous modular proteases, the MBL-Associated Serine Proteases (MASPs). The crystal structures of the catalytic domains of MASP-1 and MASP-2 have been solved, but the structure of the corresponding domain of MASP-3 remains unknown. A link between mutations in the MASP1/3 gene and the rare autosomal recessive 3MC (Mingarelli, Malpuech, Michels and Carnevale,) syndrome, characterized by various developmental disorders, was discovered recently, revealing an unexpected important role of MASP-3 in early developmental processes. To gain a first insight into the enzymatic and structural properties of MASP-3, a recombinant form of its serine protease (SP) domain was produced and characterized. The amidolytic activity of this domain on fluorescent peptidyl-aminomethylcoumarin substrates was shown to be considerably lower than that of other members of the C1r/C1s/MASP family. The E. coli protease inhibitor ecotin bound to the SP domains of MASP-3 and MASP-2, whereas no significant interaction was detected with MASP-1, C1r and C1s. A tetrameric complex comprising an ecotin dimer and two MASP-3 SP domains was isolated and its crystal structure was solved and refined to 3.2 Å. Analysis of the ecotin/MASP-3 interfaces allows a better understanding of the differential reactivity of the C1r/C1s/MASP protease family members towards ecotin, and comparison of the MASP-3 SP domain structure with those of other trypsin-like proteases yields novel hypotheses accounting for its zymogen-like properties in vitro

Structure and dynamics of the active Gs-coupled human secretin receptor

The class B secretin GPCR (SecR) has broad physiological effects, with target potential for treatment of metabolic and cardiovascular disease. Molecular understanding of SecR binding and activation is important for its therapeutic exploitation. We combined cryo-electron microscopy, molecular dynamics, and biochemical cross-linking to determine a 2.3 Å structure, and interrogate dynamics, of secretin bound to the SecR:Gs complex. SecR exhibited a unique organization of its extracellular domain (ECD) relative to its 7-transmembrane (TM) core, forming more extended interactions than other family members. Numerous polar interactions formed between secretin and the receptor extracellular loops (ECLs) and TM helices. Cysteine-cross-linking, cryo-electron microscopy multivariate analysis and molecular dynamics simulations revealed that interactions between peptide and receptor were dynamic, and suggested a model for initial peptide engagement where early interactions between the far N-terminus of the peptide and SecR ECL2 likely occur following initial binding of the peptide C-terminus to the ECD