Seasonal predictions of energy-relevant climate variables through Euro-Atlantic Teleconnections

The goal of this analysis is the better understanding of how the large-scale atmospheric patterns affect the renewable resources over Europe and to investigate to what extent the dynamical predictions of the large-scale variability might be used to formulate empirical prediction of local climate conditions (relevant for the energy sector). The increasing integration of renewable energy into the power mix is making the electricity supply more vulnerable to climate variability, therefore increasing the need for skillful weather and climate predictions. Forecasting seasonal variations of energy relevant climate variables can help the transition to renewable energy and the entire energy industry to make better informed decision-making. At seasonal timescale climate variability can be described by recurring and persistent, large-scale patterns of atmospheric pressure and circulation anomalies that interest vast geographical areas. The main patterns of the North Atlantic region (Euro Atlantic Teleconnections, EATCs) drive variations in the surface climate over Europe. We analyze reanalysis dataset ERA5 and the multi-system seasonal forecast service provided by Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). We found that the observed EATC indices are strongly correlated with surface variables. However, the observed relationship between EATC patterns and surface impacts is not accurately reproduced by seasonal prediction systems. This opens the door to employ hybrid dynamical-statistical methods. The idea consists in combining the dynamical seasonal predictions of EATC indices with the observed relationship between EATCs and surface variables. We reconstructed the surface anomalies for multiple seasonal prediction systems and benchmarked these hybrid forecasts with the direct variable forecasts from the systems and also with the climatology. The analysis suggests that hybrid methodology can bring several improvements to the predictions of energy relevant Essential Climate Variables.This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [Grant Numbers. No 776787, H2020 S2S4E] and by the National Italian project PAR 2019–2021 1.8 ‘Energia dal Mare’.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Upper tropospheric ice sensitivity to sulfate geoengineering

Abstract. Aside from the direct surface cooling that sulfate geoengineering (SG) would produce, investigations of the possible side effects of this method are still ongoing, such as the exploration of the effect that SG may have on upper tropospheric cirrus cloudiness. The goal of the present study is to better understand the SG thermodynamical effects on the freezing mechanisms leading to ice particle formation. This is undertaken by comparing SG model simulations against a Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) reference case. In the first case, the aerosol-driven surface cooling is included and coupled to the stratospheric warming resulting from the aerosol absorption of terrestrial and solar near-infrared radiation. In a second SG perturbed case, the surface temperatures are kept unchanged with respect to the reference RCP4.5 case. When combined, surface cooling and lower stratospheric warming tend to stabilize the atmosphere, which decreases the turbulence and updraft velocities (−10 % in our modeling study). The net effect is an induced cirrus thinning, which may then produce a significant indirect negative radiative forcing (RF). This RF would go in the same direction as the direct effect of solar radiation scattering by aerosols, and would consequently influence the amount of sulfur needed to counteract the positive RF due to greenhouse gases. In our study, given an 8 Tg-SO2 yr−1 equatorial injection into the lower stratosphere, an all-sky net tropopause RF of −1.46 W m−2 is calculated, of which −0.3 W m−2 (20 %) is from the indirect effect on cirrus thinning (6 % reduction in ice optical depth). When surface cooling is ignored, the ice optical depth reduction is lowered to 3 %, with an all-sky net tropopause RF of −1.4 W m−2, of which −0.14 W m−2 (10 %) is from cirrus thinning. Relative to the clear-sky net tropopause RF due to SG aerosols (−2.1 W m−2), the cumulative effect of the background clouds and cirrus thinning accounts for +0.6 W m−2, due to the partial compensation of large positive shortwave (+1.6 W m−2) and negative longwave adjustments (−1.0 W m−2). When surface cooling is ignored, the net cloud adjustment becomes +0.8 W m−2, with the shortwave contribution (+1.5 W m−2) almost twice as much as that of the longwave (−0.7 W m−2). This highlights the importance of including all of the dynamical feedbacks of SG aerosols

Stratospheric Aerosols from Major Volcanic Eruptions: A Composition-Climate Model Study of the Aerosol Cloud Dispersal and e-folding Time

Large explosive volcanic eruptions are capable of injecting considerable amounts of particles and sulfur gases above the tropopause, causing large increases in stratospheric aerosols. Five major volcanic eruptions after 1960 (i.e., Agung, St. Helens, El Chichon, Nevado del Ruiz and Pinatubo) have been considered in a numerical study conducted with a composition-climate coupled model including an aerosol microphysics code for aerosol formation and growth. Model results are compared between an ensemble of numerical simulations including volcanic aerosols and their radiative effects (VE) and a reference simulations ensemble (REF) with no radiative impact of the volcanic aerosols. Differences of VE-REF show enhanced diabatic heating rates; increased stratospheric temperatures and mean zonal westerly winds; increased planetary wave amplitude; and tropical upwelling. The impact on stratospheric upwelling is found to be larger when the volcanically perturbed stratospheric aerosol is confined to the tropics, as tends to be the case for eruptions which were followed by several months with easterly shear of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), e.g., the Pinatubo case. Compared to an eruption followed by a period of westerly QBO, such easterly QBO eruptions are quite different, with meridional transport to mid- and high-latitudes occurring later, and at higher altitude, with a consequent decrease in cross-tropopause removal from the stratosphere, and therefore longer decay timescale. Comparing the model-calculated e-folding time of the volcanic aerosol mass during the first year after the eruptions, an increase is found from 8.1 and 10.3 months for El Chichon and Agung (QBO westerly shear), to 14.6 and 30.7 months for Pinatubo and Ruiz (QBO easterly shear). The corresponding e-folding time of the global-mean radiative flux changes goes from 9.1 and 8.0 months for El Chichon and Agung, to 28.7 and 24.5 months for Pinatubo and Ruiz

Impact of Stratospheric Volcanic Aerosols on Age-of-Air and Transport of Long-Lived Species

The radiative perturbation associated to stratospheric aerosols from major explosive volcanic eruptions may induce significant changes in stratospheric dynamics. The aerosol heating rates warm up the lower stratosphere and cause a westerly wind anomaly, with additional tropical upwelling. Large scale transport of stratospheric trace species may be perturbed as a consequence of this intensified Brewer–Dobson circulation. The radiatively forced changes of the stratospheric circulation during the first two years after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (June 1991) may help explain the observed trend decline of long-lived greenhouse gases at surface stations (approximately −8 and −0.4 ppbv/year for CH4 and N2O, respectively). This decline is partly driven by the increased mid- to high-latitude downward flux at the tropopause and also by an increased isolation of the tropical pipe in the vertical layer near the tropopause, with reduced horizontal eddy mixing. Results from a climate-chemistry coupled model are shown for both long-lived trace species and the stratospheric age-of-air. The latter results to be younger by approximately 0.5 year at 30 hPa for 3–4 years after the June 1991 Pinatubo eruption, as a result of the volcanic aerosols radiative perturbation and is consistent with independent estimates based on long time series of in situ profile measurements of SF6 and CO2. Younger age of air is also calculated after Agung, El Chichon and Ruiz eruptions, as well as negative anomalies of the N2O growth rate at the extratropical tropopause layer. This type of analysis is made comparing the results of two ensembles of model simulations (1960–2005), one including stratospheric volcanic aerosols and their radiative interactions and a reference case where the volcanic aerosols do not interact with solar and planetary radiation

Sulfate Aerosols from Non-Explosive Volcanoes: Chemical-Radiative Effects in the Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

SO2 and H2S are the two most important gas-phase sulfur species emitted by volcanoes, with a global amount from non-explosive emissions of the order 10 Tg-S/yr. These gases are readily oxidized forming SO42− aerosols, which effectively scatter the incoming solar radiation and cool the surface. They also perturb atmospheric chemistry by enhancing the NOx to HNO3 heterogeneous conversion via hydrolysis on the aerosol surface of N2O5 and Br-Cl nitrates. This reduces formation of tropospheric O3 and the OH to HO2 ratio, thus limiting the oxidation of CH4 and increasing its lifetime. In addition to this tropospheric chemistry perturbation, there is also an impact on the NOx heterogeneous chemistry in the lower stratosphere, due to vertical transport of volcanic SO2 up to the tropical tropopause layer. Furthermore, the stratospheric O3 formation and loss, as well as the NOx budget, may be slightly affected by the additional amount of upward diffused solar radiation and consequent increase of photolysis rates. Two multi-decadal time-slice runs of a climate-chemistry-aerosol model have been designed for studying these chemical-radiative effects. A tropopause mean global net radiative flux change (RF) of −0.23 W·m−2 is calculated (including direct and indirect aerosol effects) with a 14% increase of the global mean sulfate aerosol optical depth. A 5–15 ppt NOx decrease is found in the mid-troposphere subtropics and mid-latitudes and also from pole to pole in the lower stratosphere. The tropospheric NOx perturbation triggers a column O3 decrease of 0.5–1.5 DU and a 1.1% increase of the CH4 lifetime. The surface cooling induced by solar radiation scattering by the volcanic aerosols induces a tropospheric stabilization with reduced updraft velocities that produce ice supersaturation conditions in the upper troposphere. A global mean 0.9% decrease of the cirrus ice optical depth is calculated with an indirect RF of −0.08 W·m−2

Predictive skill of teleconnection patterns in twentieth century seasonal hindcasts and their relationship to extreme winter temperatures in Europe

European winter weather is dominated by several low-frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia and Scandinavian patterns. We analyze the century-long ERA-20C reanalysis and ASF-20C seasonal hindcast datasets and find that these patterns are subject to decadal variability and fluctuations in predictive skill. Using indices for determining periods of extreme cold or warm temperatures, we establish that the teleconnection patterns are, for some regions, significantly correlated or anti-correlated to cold or heat waves. The seasonal hindcasts are however only partly able to capture these relationships. There do not seem to be significant changes to the observed links between large-scale circulation patterns and extreme temperatures between periods of higher and lower predictive skill

ESMValTool (v1.0) – a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP

A community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) has been developed that allows for routine comparison of single or multiple models, either against predecessor versions or against observations. The priority of the effort so far has been to target specific scientific themes focusing on selected essential climate variables (ECVs), a range of known systematic biases common to ESMs, such as coupled tropical climate variability, monsoons, Southern Ocean processes, continental dry biases, and soil hydrology–climate interactions, as well as atmospheric CO2 budgets, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, and tropospheric aerosols. The tool is being developed in such a way that additional analyses can easily be added. A set of standard namelists for each scientific topic reproduces specific sets of diagnostics or performance metrics that have demonstrated their importance in ESM evaluation in the peer-reviewed literature. The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community effort open to both users and developers encouraging open exchange of diagnostic source code and evaluation results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) ensemble. This will facilitate and improve ESM evaluation beyond the state-of-the-art and aims at supporting such activities within CMIP and at individual modelling centres. Ultimately, we envisage running the ESMValTool alongside the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) as part of a more routine evaluation of CMIP model simulations while utilizing observations available in standard formats (obs4MIPs) or provided by the user

Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations

We analyse simulations performed for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion caused by anthropogenic stratospheric chlorine and bromine. We consider a total of 155 simulations from 20 models, including a range of sensitivity studies which examine the impact of climate change on ozone recovery. For the control simulations (unconstrained by nudging towards analysed meteorology) there is a large spread (±20DU in the global average) in the predictions of the absolute ozone column. Therefore, the model results need to be adjusted for biases against historical data. Also, the interannual variability in the model results need to be smoothed in order to provide a reasonably narrow estimate of the range of ozone return dates. Consistent with previous studies, but here for a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 6.0, these new CCMI simulations project that global total column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2049 (with a 1σ uncertainty of 2043–2055). At Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values in 2045 (2039–2050), and at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in 2032 (2020–2044). In the polar regions, the return dates are 2060 (2055–2066) in the Antarctic in October and 2034 (2025–2043) in the Arctic in March. The earlier return dates in the Northern Hemisphere reflect the larger sensitivity to dynamical changes. Our estimates of return dates are later than those presented in the 2014 Ozone Assessment by approximately 5–17 years, depending on the region, with the previous best estimates often falling outside of our uncertainty range. In the tropics only around half the models predict a return of ozone to 1980 values, around 2040, while the other half do not reach the 1980 value. All models show a negative trend in tropical total column ozone towards the end of the 21st century. The CCMI models generally agree in their simulation of the time evolution of stratospheric chlorine and bromine, which are the main drivers of ozone loss and recovery. However, there are a few outliers which show that the multi-model mean results for ozone recovery are not as tightly constrained as possible. Throughout the stratosphere the spread of ozone return dates to 1980 values between models tends to correlate with the spread of the return of inorganic chlorine to 1980 values. In the upper stratosphere, greenhouse gas-induced cooling speeds up the return by about 10–20 years. In the lower stratosphere, and for the column, there is a more direct link in the timing of the return dates of ozone and chlorine, especially for the large Antarctic depletion. Comparisons of total column ozone between the models is affected by different predictions of the evolution of tropospheric ozone within the same scenario, presumably due to differing treatment of tropospheric chemistry. Therefore, for many scenarios, clear conclusions can only be drawn for stratospheric ozone columns rather than the total column. As noted by previous studies, the timing of ozone recovery is affected by the evolution of N2O and CH4. However, quantifying the effect in the simulations analysed here is limited by the few realisations available for these experiments compared to internal model variability. The large increase in N2O given in RCP 6.0 extends the ozone return globally by ∼15 years relative to N2O fixed at 1960 abundances, mainly because it allows tropical column ozone to be depleted. The effect in extratropical latitudes is much smaller. The large increase in CH4 given in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to RCP 6.0 also lengthens ozone return by ∼15 years, again mainly through its impact in the tropics. Overall, our estimates of ozone return dates are uncertain due to both uncertainties in future scenarios, in particular those of greenhouse gases, and uncertainties in models. The scenario uncertainty is small in the short term but increases with time, and becomes large by the end of the century. There are still some model–model differences related to well-known processes which affect ozone recovery. Efforts need to continue to ensure that models used for assessment purposes accurately represent stratospheric chemistry and the prescribed scenarios of ozone-depleting substances, and only those models are used to calculate return dates. For future assessments of single forcing or combined effects of CO2, CH4, and N2O on the stratospheric column ozone return dates, this work suggests that it is more important to have multi-member (at least three) ensembles for each scenario from every established participating model, rather than a large number of individual models