Indigenous fire management and cross-scale fire-climate relationships in the Southwest United States from 1500 to 1900 CE

Prior research suggests that Indigenous fire management buffers climate influences on wildfires, but it is unclear whether these benefits accrue across geographic scales. We use a network of 4824 fire-scarred trees in Southwest United States dry forests to analyze up to 400 years of fire-climate relationships at local, landscape, and regional scales for traditional territories of three different Indigenous cultures. Comparison of fire-year and prior climate conditions for periods of intensive cultural use and less-intensive use indicates that Indigenous fire management weakened fire-climate relationships at local and landscape scales. This effect did not scale up across the entire region because land use was spatially and temporally heterogeneous at that scale. Restoring or emulating Indigenous fire practices could buffer climate impacts at local scales but would need to be repeatedly implemented at broad scales for broader regional benefits. &nbsp;</p

The North American tree-ring fire-scar network

Fire regimes in North American forests are diverse and modern fire records are often too short to capture important patterns, trends, feedbacks, and drivers of variability. Tree-ring fire scars provide valuable perspectives on fire regimes, including centuries-long records of fire year, season, frequency, severity, and size. Here, we introduce the newly compiled North American tree-ring fire-scar network (NAFSN), which contains 2562 sites, >37,000 fire-scarred trees, and covers large parts of North America. We investigate the NAFSN in terms of geography, sample depth, vegetation, topography, climate, and human land use. Fire scars are found in most ecoregions, from boreal forests in northern Alaska and Canada to subtropical forests in southern Florida and Mexico. The network includes 91 tree species, but is dominated by gymnosperms in the genus Pinus. Fire scars are found from sea level to >4000-m elevation and across a range of topographic settings that vary by ecoregion. Multiple regions are densely sampled (e.g., >1000 fire-scarred trees), enabling new spatial analyses such as reconstructions of area burned. To demonstrate the potential of the network, we compared the climate space of the NAFSN to those of modern fires and forests; the NAFSN spans a climate space largely representative of the forested areas in North America, with notable gaps in warmer tropical climates. Modern fires are burning in similar climate spaces as historical fires, but disproportionately in warmer regions compared to the historical record, possibly related to under-sampling of warm subtropical forests or supporting observations of changing fire regimes. The historical influence of Indigenous and non-Indigenous human land use on fire regimes varies in space and time. A 20th century fire deficit associated with human activities is evident in many regions, yet fire regimes characterized by frequent surface fires are still active in some areas (e.g., Mexico and the southeastern United States). These analyses provide a foundation and framework for future studies using the hundreds of thousands of annually- to sub-annually-resolved tree-ring records of fire spanning centuries, which will further advance our understanding of the interactions among fire, climate, topography, vegetation, and humans across North America

Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration. © 2023 the Author(s)

The Early Growth Genetics (EGG) and EArly Genetics and Lifecourse Epidemiology (EAGLE) consortia : design, results and future prospects

The impact of many unfavorable childhood traits or diseases, such as low birth weight and mental disorders, is not limited to childhood and adolescence, as they are also associated with poor outcomes in adulthood, such as cardiovascular disease. Insight into the genetic etiology of childhood and adolescent traits and disorders may therefore provide new perspectives, not only on how to improve wellbeing during childhood, but also how to prevent later adverse outcomes. To achieve the sample sizes required for genetic research, the Early Growth Genetics (EGG) and EArly Genetics and Lifecourse Epidemiology (EAGLE) consortia were established. The majority of the participating cohorts are longitudinal population-based samples, but other cohorts with data on early childhood phenotypes are also involved. Cohorts often have a broad focus and collect(ed) data on various somatic and psychiatric traits as well as environmental factors. Genetic variants have been successfully identified for multiple traits, for example, birth weight, atopic dermatitis, childhood BMI, allergic sensitization, and pubertal growth. Furthermore, the results have shown that genetic factors also partly underlie the association with adult traits. As sample sizes are still increasing, it is expected that future analyses will identify additional variants. This, in combination with the development of innovative statistical methods, will provide detailed insight on the mechanisms underlying the transition from childhood to adult disorders. Both consortia welcome new collaborations. Policies and contact details are available from the corresponding authors of this manuscript and/or the consortium websites.Peer reviewe

Landscape Fire History and Age Structure Patterns in the Sky Islands of Southeastern Aizona

At regional scales climate patterns (e.g., interannual wet-dry cycles) result in high spatial fire synchrony among Southwest forests. However, in the "Sky Island" forests of southeastern Arizona spatial and temporal patterns of fire history and tree age structure at landscape levels (i.e., within mountain ranges) are relatively unknown and therefore the focus of this study. In the Santa Catalina Mountains we reconstructed the fire history on a 2,900-hectare study area with two distinct landscapes, Butterfly Peak (BP) and Rose Canyon (RC) using 2-hectare "points" (i.e., collection areas). The RC landscape was dominated by shallow south-facing aspects and BP was dominated by steep north-facing aspects. Within each landscape, point mean fire intervals (PMFIs) were not significantly different between aspect classes. However, pooled PMFIs were significantly shorter in RC compared to BP. These results show that the fire history at any given point (i.e., 2 hectares or less) was primarily controlled by the broad-scale topography of the encompassing landscape, rather than by the fine-scale topography at that point.Using similar methods we also reconstructed the fire history on Rincon Peak, which is a small isolated mountain range with very step topography. The fire history of the 310-hectare forest area was a mixture of frequent low severity surface fires (from AD 1648 to 1763) and infrequent mixed-severity fires (from AD 1763 to 1867). This mixed-fire regime was probably due to a combination of climatic variability, the small area and rugged topography of this mountain range, and complex fuel arrangements. The distinct fire histories from these two study areas provided natural age structure experiments that indicated tree age cohorts (i.e., higher than expected tree establishment pulses) occurred during periods of reduced fire frequencies. In some instances these periods were likely caused by climatic variability (e.g., a wet and/or cool early 1800s) creating synchronous age cohorts across the region. At other times, extended fire intervals were a function of local topography (e.g., 1763-1819 in the northern half of Rincon Peak). Overall, these studies demonstrated that landscape and climatic variations combine to produce complex spatial and temporal variations in fire history and tree age structures

Comparing Geography and Severity of Managed Wildfires in California and the Southwest USA before and after the Implementation of the 2009 Policy Guidance

Managed wildfires, i.e., naturally ignited wildfires that are managed for resource benefits, have the potential to reduce fuel loads, minimize the effects of future wildfires, and restore critical natural processes across many forest landscapes. In the United States, the 2009 federal wildland fire policy guidance was designed to provide greater flexibility in the use of managed wildfires, but the effects of this policy on wildfires in the western US are not yet fully understood. Our goal was to compare managed and full suppression wildfires and to also analyze the differences between managed wildfires across space (Arizona/New Mexico and California) and time (before and after 2009) using four metrics for each wildfire: (1) distance to wilderness, (2) distance to the wildland&ndash;urban interface (WUI), (3) the percentage of area burned with high severity, and (4) the number of land management agencies. Across the study area, we found that managed wildfires were significantly closer to wilderness areas, were farther from the WUI, had a lower percentage of area that was burned at high severity, and had fewer agencies involved in managing the fire compared to full suppression wildfires. In California, managed wildfires occurred closer to wilderness and had a larger percentage of high-severity burn area compared to those in the southwest US (Arizona and New Mexico). Within each region, however, there were no significant geographic differences between managed wildfires before and after the implementation of the 2009 policy guidance. Despite the greater flexibility of the 2009 policy guidance, the basic geographic properties of managed wildfires in these two regions have not changed. As the climate warms and droughts intensify, the use of managed wildfires will need to expand during favorable weather conditions in order to address the threat of large and uncharacteristic wildfires to people and ecosystems

Twenty years of drought‐mediated change in snag populations in mixed‐conifer and ponderosa pine forests in Northern Arizona

Abstract Background Snags (standing dead trees) are important biological legacies in forest systems, providing numerous resources as well as a record of recent tree mortality. From 1997 to 2017, we monitored snag populations in drought-influenced mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in northern Arizona. Results Snag density increased significantly in both forest types. This increase was driven largely by a pulse in snag recruitment that occurred between 2002 and 2007, following an extreme drought year in 2002, with snag recruitment returning to pre-pulse levels in subsequent time periods. Some later years during the study also were warmer and/or drier than average, but these years were not as extreme as 2002 and did not trigger the same level of snag recruitment. Snag recruitment was not equal across tree species and size classes, resulting in significant changes in species composition and size-class distributions of snag populations in both forest types. Because trees were far more abundant than snags in these forests, the effect of this mortality pulse on tree populations was far smaller than its effect on snag populations. Snag loss rates increased over time during the study, even though many snags were newly recruited. This may reflect the increasing prevalence of white fir snags and/or snags in the smaller size classes, which generally decay faster than snags of other species or larger snags. Thus, although total numbers of snags increased, many of the newly recruited snags may not persist long enough to be valuable as nesting substrates for native wildlife. Conclusions Increases in snag abundance appeared to be due to a short-term tree mortality “event” rather than a longer-term pattern of elevated tree mortality. This mortality event followed a dry and extremely warm year (2002) embedded within a longer-term megadrought. Climate models suggest that years like 2002 may occur with increasing frequency in the southwestern U.S. Such years may result in additional mortality pulses, which in turn may strongly affect trajectories in abundance, structure, and composition of snag populations. Relative effects on tree populations likely will be smaller, but, over time, also could be significant