Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models:An application to consumers’ vehicle choices

A large body of transport sector-focused research recognizes the complexity of human behavior in relation to mobility. Yet, global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which are widely used to evaluate the costs, potentials, and consequences of different greenhouse gas emission trajectories over the medium-to-long term, typically represent behavior and the end use of energy as a simple rational choice between available alternatives, even though abundant empirical evidence shows that real-world decision making is more complex and less routinely rational. This paper demonstrates the value of incorporating certain features of consumer behavior in IAMs, focusing on light-duty vehicle (LDV) purchase decisions. An innovative model formulation is developed to represent heterogeneous consumer groups with varying preferences for vehicle novelty, range, refueling/recharging availability, and variety. The formulation is then implemented in the transport module of MESSAGE-Transport, a global IAM, although it also has the generic flexibility to be applied in energy-economy models with varying set-ups. Comparison of conventional and ‘behaviorally-realistic’ model runs with respect to vehicle purchase decisions shows that consumer preferences may slow down the transition to alternative fuel (low-carbon) vehicles. Consequently, stronger price-based incentives and/or non-price based measures may be needed to transform the global fleet of passenger vehicles, at least in the initial market phases of novel alternatives. Otherwise, the mitigation burden borne by other transport sub-sectors and other energy sectors could be higher than previously estimated. More generally, capturing behavioral features of energy consumers in global IAMs increases their usefulness to policy makers by allowing a more realistic assessment of a more diverse suite of policies

Synthesizing value sensitive design, responsible research and innovation, and energy justice:A conceptual review

Many academic approaches that claim to consider the broad set of social and ethical issues relevant to energy systems sit side-by-side without conversation. This paper considers three such literatures: Value Sensitive Design, Responsible Research and Innovation and the Energy Justice framework. We argue that whilst definitions of these concepts appear, on face value, to be united by a common normative goal – improving the social outcomes and mitigating sensitivities at the interface of technological energy systems and human livelihoods –, their existence in academic silos has obscured complementarities, which, once synthesized, might increase their overall academic and practical relevance. This paper fills the emergent gap of critically discussing the concepts and their strengths and challenges as well as how they could contribute to each other. It compares: (1) the things that they claim to tackle, (2) the solutions they claim to provide and (3) the points that clearly distinguish one approach from another (if any at all). Not only does this make this paper the first of its kind, but it also makes it an impactful one. With each concept gaining various degrees of support in academia and practice, our discussion reveals where tensions exist and where positive gains can be made. We identify five opportunities for collaboration and integration with implications for the achievement of energy systems that are acceptable from a societal and ethical perspective

Localizing governance of systemic risks: a case study of the Power of Siberia pipeline in Russia

For the past three decades, risk has occupied center stage in the energy discourse. Systemic risks have proven particularly challenging for government energy planners and corporate executives, as they are characterized by their complexity, uncertainty, ambiguity, and ability to causing ripple effects throughout economic, social, and political structures. In this article we analyze two approaches to governing systemic risks arising out of energy megaprojects, one mandated under the Russian legal and regulatory regime and one employed by the largely indigenous hunters, fishermen, and reindeer herders residing in the Sakha Republic. Our study focuses on the 4000-km-long natural gas transmission system "Power of Siberia" to be constructed in the sub-Arctic part of the region. We employ a complimentary and corroborative analysis of legal texts, fieldwork observations, semi-structured interviews, and transcripts of official meetings. We establish that the approach to risk taken by the people who occupy the land that the Power of Siberia traverses could provide a useful insight for handling systemic risks in connection with pipeline transportation systems. We also determine that the current Russian legal and regulatory regime fails to provide an adequate basis for governing such risks. We conclude the article by identifying four pathways for integrating valuable elements of the indigenous approach into the current legal and regulatory framework

Agri-food transitions and the “green public sphere” in China

Studies of China’s agri-food transitions have so far largely overlooked the role of the public in policymaking and practice. We argue that a deeper understanding of public perceptions of – and engagement with – agricultural innovation, is required to better understanding the dynamic responses that exist to the multiple complex and intersecting challenges facing China’s food and agriculture system. In order to demonstrate the kinds of additional evidence that might contribute to an enhanced understanding of the role of the public sphere in China’s agri-food transitions, we present findings from an exploratory project drawing on qualitative field research. Focussing in particular on public perceptions of genetically-modified crops, we suggest a number of preliminary insights that confirm, challenge or supplement earlier findings. We use this study, in the particular socio-political context of China, to shed light on the complex role of public perceptions (elsewhere in the transitions literature referred to as ‘market/ user preferences’ or ‘culture’) in agri-food transitions. This raises important questions for the governance of Chinese agri-food transitions and how future research might better inform its response to a changing public sphere

Uncertainty handling in fault tree based risk assessment: State of the art and future perspectives

YesRisk assessment methods have been widely used in various industries, and they play a significant role in improving the safety performance of systems. However, the outcomes of risk assessment approaches are subject to uncertainty and ambiguity due to the complexity and variability of system behaviour, scarcity of quantitative data about different system parameters, and human involvement in the analysis, operation, and decision-making processes. The implications for improving system safety are slowly being recognised; however, research on uncertainty handling during both qualitative and quantitative risk assessment procedures is a growing field. This paper presents a review of the state of the art in this field, focusing on uncertainty handling in fault tree analysis (FTA) based risk assessment. Theoretical contributions, aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, and integration of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty handling in the scientific and technical literature are carefully reviewed. The emphasis is on highlighting how assessors can handle uncertainty based on the available evidence as an input to FTA