3,004 research outputs found
Uncertainty Analysis of the Adequacy Assessment Model of a Distributed Generation System
Due to the inherent aleatory uncertainties in renewable generators, the
reliability/adequacy assessments of distributed generation (DG) systems have
been particularly focused on the probabilistic modeling of random behaviors,
given sufficient informative data. However, another type of uncertainty
(epistemic uncertainty) must be accounted for in the modeling, due to
incomplete knowledge of the phenomena and imprecise evaluation of the related
characteristic parameters. In circumstances of few informative data, this type
of uncertainty calls for alternative methods of representation, propagation,
analysis and interpretation. In this study, we make a first attempt to
identify, model, and jointly propagate aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in
the context of DG systems modeling for adequacy assessment. Probability and
possibility distributions are used to model the aleatory and epistemic
uncertainties, respectively. Evidence theory is used to incorporate the two
uncertainties under a single framework. Based on the plausibility and belief
functions of evidence theory, the hybrid propagation approach is introduced. A
demonstration is given on a DG system adapted from the IEEE 34 nodes
distribution test feeder. Compared to the pure probabilistic approach, it is
shown that the hybrid propagation is capable of explicitly expressing the
imprecision in the knowledge on the DG parameters into the final adequacy
values assessed. It also effectively captures the growth of uncertainties with
higher DG penetration levels
Citizen participation and awareness raising in coastal protected areas. A case study from Italy
In this chapter, part of the research carried out within the SECOA project
(www.projectsecoa.eu) is presented. Attention is devoted to methods and tools used for
supporting the participatory process in a case of environmental conflict related to the definition
of boundaries of a coastal protected area: the Costa Teatina National Park, in Abruzzo, central
Italy. The Costa Teatina National Park was established by the National Law 93/2001. Its territory
includes eight southern Abruzzo municipalities and covers a stretch of coastline of approximately
60 km. It is a coastal protected area, which incorporates land but not sea, characterized by the
presence of important cultural and natural assets. The Italian Ministry of Environment (1998)
defines the area as “winding and varied, with the alternation of sandy and gravel beaches, cliffs,
river mouths, areas rich in indigenous vegetation and cultivated lands (mainly olives), dunes and
forest trees”. The park boundaries were not defined by the law that set it up, and their
determination has been postponed to a later stage of territorial negotiation that has not ended yet
(Montanari and Staniscia, 2013). The definition of the park boundaries, indeed, has resulted in an
intense debate between citizens and interest groups who believe that environmental protection
does not conflict with economic growth and those who believe the opposite. That is why the
process is still in act and a solution is far from being reached. In this chapter, the methodology
and the tools used to involve the general public in active participation in decision making and to
support institutional players in conflict mitigation will be presented. Those tools have also proven
to be effective in the dissemination of information and transfer of knowledge. Results obtained
through the use of each instrument will not be presented here since this falls outside the purpose
of the present essay. The chapter is organized as follows: in the first section the importance of the
theme of citizen participation in decision making will be highlighted; the focus will be on
participation in the processes of ICZM, relevant to the management of coastal protected areas. In
the second section a review of the most commonly used methods in social research is presented;
advantages and disadvantages of each of them will be highlighted. In particular, the history and
the evolution of the Delphi method and its derivatives are discussed; focus will be on the
dissemination value of the logic underlying such iterative methods. In the third section the tools
used in the case of the Costa Teatina National Park will be presented; strengths and weaknesses
will be highlighted and proposals for their improvement will be advanced. Discussion and
conclusions follow
INTEGRATED DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC SAFETY ANALYSIS: CONCEPTS, CHALLENGES, RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
International audienceIntegrated deterministic and probabilistic safety analysis (IDPSA) is conceived as a way to analyze the evolution of accident scenarios in complex dynamic systems, like nuclear, aerospace and process ones, accounting for the mutual interactions between the failure and recovery of system components, the evolving physical processes, the control and operator actions, the software and firmware. In spite of the potential offered by IDPSA, several challenges need to be effectively addressed for its development and practical deployment. In this paper, we give an overview of these and discuss the related implications in terms of research perspectives
Prognostics and Health Management of Industrial Equipment
ISBN13: 9781466620957Prognostics and health management (PHM) is a field of research and application which aims at making use of past, present and future information on the environmental, operational and usage conditions of an equipment in order to detect its degradation, diagnose its faults, predict and proactively manage its failures. The present paper reviews the state of knowledge on the methods for PHM, placing these in context with the different information and data which may be available for performing the task and identifying the current challenges and open issues which must be addressed for achieving reliable deployment in practice. The focus is predominantly on the prognostic part of PHM, which addresses the prediction of equipment failure occurrence and associated residual useful life (RUL)
Multiobjective Reliability Allocation in Multi-State Systems: Decision Making by Visualization and Analysis of Pareto Fronts and Sets
ISBN 978-1-4471-2206-7Reliability-based design, operation and maintenance of multi-state systems lead to multiobjective (multicriteria) optimization problems whose solutions are represented in terms of Pareto Fronts and Sets. Among these solutions, the decision maker must choose the ones which best satisfy his\her preferences on the objectives of the problem. Visualization and analysis of the Pareto Fronts and Sets can help decision makers in this task. In this view, a recently introduced graphical representation, called Level Diagrams, is here used in support of the analysis of Pareto Fronts and Sets aimed at reducing the number of non-dominated solutions to be considered by the decision maker. Each objective and design parameter is represented on separate "synchronized" diagrams which position the Pareto front points according to their proximity to ideal preference points and on the basis of this representation a two-step front reduction procedure is proposed. An application to a redundancy allocation problem of literature concerning a multi-state system is used to illustrate the analysis
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