Extent of partial ice cover due to carbon cycle feedback in a zonal energy balance model

International audienceA global carbon cycle is introduced into a zonally averaged energy balance climate model. The physical model components are similar to those of Budyko (1969) and Sellers (1969). The new carbon components account for atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and the terrestrial and oceanic storage of carbon. Prescribing values for the sum of these carbon components, it is found that inclusion of a closed carbon cycle reduces the range of insolation over which stable partial ice cover solutions may occur. This highly simplified climate model also predicts that the estimated release of carbon from fossil fuel burning over the next hundred years could result in the eventual melting of the ice sheets. Keywords: climate, carbon cycle,zonal model, earth system modellin

Vectors with autonomy: what distinguishes animal-mediated nutrient transport from abiotic vectors?

Animal movements are important drivers of nutrient redistribution that can affect primary productivity and biodiversity across various spatial scales. Recent work indicates that incorporating these movements into ecosystem models can enhance our ability to predict the spatio-temporal distribution of nutrients. However, the role of animal behaviour in animal-mediated nutrient transport (i.e. active subsidies) remains under-explored. Here we review the current literature on active subsidies to show how the behaviour of active subsidy agents makes them both ecologically important and qualitatively distinct from abiotic processes (i.e. passive subsidies). We first propose that animal movement patterns can create similar ecological effects (i.e. press and pulse disturbances) in recipient ecosystems, which can be equal in magnitude to or greater than those of passive subsidies. We then highlight three key behavioural features distinguishing active subsidies. First, organisms can transport nutrients counter-directionally to abiotic forces and potential energy gradients (e.g. upstream). Second, unlike passive subsidies, organisms respond to the patterns of nutrients that they generate. Third, animal agents interact with each other. The latter two features can form positive- or negative-feedback loops, creating patterns in space or time that can reinforce nutrient hotspots in places of mass aggregations and/or create lasting impacts within ecosystems. Because human-driven changes can affect both the space-use of active subsidy species and their composition at both population (i.e. individual variation) and community levels (i.e. species interactions), predicting patterns in nutrient flows under future modified environmental conditions depends on understanding the behavioural mechanisms that underlie active subsidies and variation among agents' contributions. We conclude by advocating for the integration of animal behaviour, animal movement data, and individual variation into future conservation efforts in order to provide more accurate and realistic assessments of changing ecosystem function

Carbon budget for 1.5 and 2oC targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks

Methane emissions from natural wetlands and carbon release from permafrost thaw have a positive feedback on climate, yet are not represented in most state-of-the-art climate models. Furthermore, a fraction of the thawed permafrost carbon is released as methane, enhancing the combined feedback strength. We present simulations with an intermediate complexity climate model which follow prescribed global warming pathways to stabilisation at 1.5°C or 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100, and that incorporates a state-of-the-art global land surface model with updated descriptions of wetland and permafrost carbon release. We demonstrate that the climate feedbacks from those two processes are substantial. Specifically, permissible anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 emission budgets are reduced by 17-23% (47-56 GtC) for stabilisation at 1.5°C, and 9-13% (52-57 GtC) for 2.0°C stabilisation. In our simulations these feedback processes respond faster at temperatures below 1.5°C, and the differences between the 1.5°C and 2°C targets are disproportionately small. This key finding is due to our interest in transient emission pathways to the year 2100 and does not consider the longer term implications of these feedback processes. We conclude that natural feedback processes from wetlands and permafrost must be considered in assessments of transient emission pathways to limit global warming

The global carbon budget 1959-2011

Accurate assessments of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. Finally, the global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms. For the last decade available (2002–2011), EFF was 8.3 ± 0.4 PgC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1PgC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 PgC yr−1. For year 2011 alone, EFF was 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, 3.0 percent above 2010, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, approximately constant throughout the decade; GATM was 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.7 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. GATM was low in 2011 compared to the 2002–2011 average because of a high uptake by the land probably in response to natural climate variability associated to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 391.31 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011. We estimate that EFF will have increased by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of gross world product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future

Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change

It has been argued that climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. The extreme high temperatures of the summer of 2003 were associated with up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe. Previous studies have attributed the meteorological event to the human influence on climate, or examined the role of heat waves on human health. Here, for the first time, we explicitly quantify the role of human activity on climate and heat-related mortality in an event attribution framework, analysing both the Europe-wide temperature response in 2003, and localised responses over London and Paris. Using publicly-donated computing, we perform many thousands of climate simulations of a high-resolution regional climate model. This allows generation of a comprehensive statistical description of the 2003 event and the role of human influence within it, using the results as input to a health impact assessment model of human mortality. We find large-scale dynamical modes of atmospheric variability remain largely unchanged under anthropogenic climate change, and hence the direct thermodynamical response is mainly responsible for the increased mortality. In summer 2003, anthropogenic climate change increased the risk of heat-related mortality in Central Paris by ~70% and by ~20% in London, which experienced lower extreme heat. Out of the estimated ~315 and ~735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris. Such an ability to robustly attribute specific damages to anthropogenic drivers of increased extreme heat can inform societal responses to, and responsibilities for, climate change

Amplified warming from physiological responses to carbon dioxide reduces the potential of vegetation for climate change mitigation

Global warming is increasing due to the ongoing rise in atmospheric greenhouse gases, and has the potential to threaten humans and ecosystems severely. Carbon dioxide, the primary rising greenhouse gas, also enhances vegetation carbon uptake, partially offsetting emissions. The vegetation physiological response to rising carbon dioxide, through partial stomatal closure and leaf area increase, can also amplify global warming, yet this is rarely accounted for in climate mitigation assessments. Using six Earth System Models, we show that vegetation physiological response consistently amplifies warming as carbon dioxide rises, primarily due to stomatal closure-induced evapotranspiration reductions. Importantly, such warming partially offsets cooling through enhanced carbon storage. We also find a stronger warming with higher leaf area and less warming with lower leaf area. Our study shows that the vegetation physiological response to elevated carbon dioxide influences local climate, which may reduce the extent of expected climate benefits offered by terrestrial ecosystems

The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts.This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios

Behavioural stress responses predict environmental perception in European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax)

Individual variation in the response to environmental challenges depends partly on innate reaction norms, partly on experience-based cognitive/emotional evaluations that individuals make of the situation. The goal of this study was to investigate whether pre-existing differences in behaviour predict the outcome of such assessment of environmental cues, using a conditioned place preference/avoidance (CPP/CPA) paradigm. A comparative vertebrate model (European sea bass, Dicentrarchus labrax) was used, and ninety juvenile individuals were initially screened for behavioural reactivity using a net restraining test. Thereafter each individual was tested in a choice tank using net chasing as aversive stimulus or exposure to familiar conspecifics as appetitive stimulus in the preferred or non preferred side respectively (called hereafter stimulation side). Locomotor behaviour (i.e. time spent, distance travelled and swimming speed in each tank side) of each individual was recorded and analysed with video software. The results showed that fish which were previously exposed to appetitive stimulus increased significantly the time spent on the stimulation side, while aversive stimulus led to a strong decrease in time spent on the stimulation side. Moreover, this study showed clearly that proactive fish were characterised by a stronger preference for the social stimulus and when placed in a putative aversive environment showed a lower physiological stress responses than reactive fish. In conclusion, this study showed for the first time in sea bass, that the CPP/CPA paradigm can be used to assess the valence (positive vs. negative) that fish attribute to different stimuli and that individual behavioural traits is predictive of how stimuli are perceived and thus of the magnitude of preference or avoidance behaviour.European Commission [265957]; Portuguese Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia (FCT) [FRH/BPD/72952/2010]; FCT [SFRH/BD/80029/2011

Variation on a Theme: Vibrational Signaling in Caterpillars of the Rose Hook-Tip Moth, Oreto rosea

Abstract Vibrational communication in hook-tip moth caterpillars is thought to be widely used and highly variable across species, but this phenomenon has been experimentally examined in only two species to date. The purpose of this study is to characterize and describe the function of vibrational signaling in a species, Oreta rosea Walker 1855 (Lepidoptera: Drepanidae), that differs morphologically from previously studied species. Caterpillars of this species produce three distinct types of vibrational signals during territorial encounters with conspecifics — mandible drumming, mandible scraping and lateral tremulation. Signals were recorded using a laser-doppler vibrometer and characterized based on temporal and spectral components. Behavioural encounters between a leaf resident and a conspecific intruder were staged to test the hypothesis that signaling functions as a territorial display. Drumming and scraping signals both involve the use of the mandibles, being hit vertically on, or scraped laterally across, the leaf surface. Lateral tremulation involves quick, short, successive lateral movements of the anterior body region that vibrates the entire leaf. Encounters result in residents signaling, with the highest rates observed when intruders make contact with the resident. Residents signal significantly more than intruders and most conflicts are resolved within 10 minutes, with residents winning 91% of trials. The results support the hypothesis that vibrational signals function to advertise leaf occupancy. Signaling is compared between species, and evolutionary origins of vibrational communication in caterpillars are discussed

Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator