Simple methods for improving the communication of uncertainty in species’ temporal trends

Temporal trends in species occupancy or abundance are a fundamental source of information for ecology and conservation. Model-based uncertainty in these trends is often communicated as frequentist confidence or Bayesian credible intervals, however, these are often misinterpreted in various ways, even by scientists. Research from the science of information visualisation indicates that line ensemble approaches that depict multiple outcomes compatible with a fitted model or data may be superior for the clear communication of model-based uncertainty. The discretisation of continuous probability information into frequency bins has also been shown to be useful for communicating with non-specialists. We present a simple and widely applicable approach that combines these two ideas, and which can be used to clearly communicate model-based uncertainty in species trends (or composite indicators) to stakeholders. We also show how broader ontological uncertainty can be communicated via trend plots using risk-of-bias visualisation approaches developed in other disciplines. The techniques are demonstrated using the example of long-term plant distributional change in Britain, but are applicable to any temporal data consisting of averages and associated uncertainty measures. Our approach supports calls for full transparency in the scientific process by clearly displaying the multiple sources of uncertainty that can be estimated by researchers

Demonstration of laser pulse amplification by stimulated Brillouin scattering

The energy transfer by stimulated Brillouin backscatter from a long pump pulse (15 ps) to a short seed pulse (1 ps) has been investigated in a proof-of-principle demonstration experiment. The two pulses were both amplified in different beamlines of a Nd:glass laser system, had a central wavelength of 1054 nm and a spectral bandwidth of 2 nm, and crossed each other in an underdense plasma in a counter-propagating geometry, off-set by 10∘. It is shown that the energy transfer and the wavelength of the generated Brillouin peak depend on the plasma density, the intensity of the laser pulses, and the competition between two-plasmon decay and stimulated Raman scatter instabilities. The highest obtained energy transfer from pump to probe pulse is 2.5%, at a plasma density of 0.17ncr, and this energy transfer increases significantly with plasma density. Therefore, our results suggest that much higher efficiencies can be obtained when higher densities (above 0.25ncr) are used

From thermal rectifiers to thermoelectric devices

We discuss thermal rectification and thermoelectric energy conversion from the perspective of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics and dynamical systems theory. After preliminary considerations on the dynamical foundations of the phenomenological Fourier law in classical and quantum mechanics, we illustrate ways to control the phononic heat flow and design thermal diodes. Finally, we consider the coupled transport of heat and charge and discuss several general mechanisms for optimizing the figure of merit of thermoelectric efficiency.Comment: 42 pages, 22 figures, review paper, to appear in the Springer Lecture Notes in Physics volume "Thermal transport in low dimensions: from statistical physics to nanoscale heat transfer" (S. Lepri ed.

Immunohistochemical and molecular characterizations in urothelial carcinoma of bladder in patients less than 45 years

Bladder tumours in early-onset patients are rare and seem to exhibit unique clinicopathological features. Only few studies have investigated somatic alterations in this specific age of onset group and evidence is accumulating of a distinct molecular behaviour of early-onset bladder tumours. We collected the largest cohort of early-onset tumours of patients 45 years old or younger and aimed to test genomic alterations typically found in bladder cancer. Tumours of 118 early-onset patients were compared with a consecutive group of 113 cases. Immunohistochemistry of TP53, CK20 and Ki-67 was carried out. Molecular analysis was conducted to test for loss of heterozygosity of chromosome 9 and 17, as well as TP53 and FGFR3 mutations. Fisheŕs exact and chi-squared test were appropriately used. No differences in grade/stage characteristics were observed. Overexpressed TP53 was differentially distributed between the two groups. TP53 nuclear accumulation was significantly more frequent in early-onset papillomas, PUNLMPs and pTa low-grade tumours compared to the consecutive cohort (p=0.005). Moreover, chromosome 9 deletions (29.5% vs. 44.6%) and FGFR3 mutations (34.5% vs. 63.7%) were less often detected in early-onset patients (p=0.05 and p<0.0001). By comparing the largest cohort of early-onset bladder cancer patients with an unselected group, we demonstrated that the typical molecular features are not independent of age at diagnosis. Our study supports the hypothesis of a distinct biological behaviour in early-onset tumours

AD51B in Familial Breast Cancer

Common variation on 14q24.1, close to RAD51B, has been associated with breast cancer: rs999737 and rs2588809 with the risk of female breast cancer and rs1314913 with the risk of male breast cancer. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of RAD51B variants in breast cancer predisposition, particularly in the context of familial breast cancer in Finland. We sequenced the coding region of RAD51B in 168 Finnish breast cancer patients from the Helsinki region for identification of possible recurrent founder mutations. In addition, we studied the known rs999737, rs2588809, and rs1314913 SNPs and RAD51B haplotypes in 44,791 breast cancer cases and 43,583 controls from 40 studies participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) that were genotyped on a custom chip (iCOGS). We identified one putatively pathogenic missense mutation c.541C&gt;T among the Finnish cancer patients and subsequently genotyped the mutation in additional breast cancer cases (n = 5259) and population controls (n = 3586) from Finland and Belarus. No significant association with breast cancer risk was seen in the meta-analysis of the Finnish datasets or in the large BCAC dataset. The association with previously identified risk variants rs999737, rs2588809, and rs1314913 was replicated among all breast cancer cases and also among familial cases in the BCAC dataset. The most significant association was observed for the haplotype carrying the risk-alleles of all the three SNPs both among all cases (odds ratio (OR): 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11–1.19, P = 8.88 x 10−16) and among familial cases (OR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.16–1.32, P = 6.19 x 10−11), compared to the haplotype with the respective protective alleles. Our results suggest that loss-of-function mutations in RAD51B are rare, but common variation at the RAD51B region is significantly associated with familial breast cancer risk

Physics with the KLOE-2 experiment at the upgraded DAϕ\phiNE

Investigation at a $\phi$--factory can shed light on several debated issues in particle physics. We discuss: i) recent theoretical development and experimental progress in kaon physics relevant for the Standard Model tests in the flavor sector, ii) the sensitivity we can reach in probing CPT and Quantum Mechanics from time evolution of entangled kaon states, iii) the interest for improving on the present measurements of non-leptonic and radiative decays of kaons and eta/eta$^\prime$ mesons, iv) the contribution to understand the nature of light scalar mesons, and v) the opportunity to search for narrow di-lepton resonances suggested by recent models proposing a hidden dark-matter sector. We also report on the $e^+ e^-$ physics in the continuum with the measurements of (multi)hadronic cross sections and the study of gamma gamma processes.Comment: 60 pages, 41 figures; added affiliation for one of the authors; added reference to section

New insights into the genetic etiology of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias.

Characterization of the genetic landscape of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related dementias (ADD) provides a unique opportunity for a better understanding of the associated pathophysiological processes. We performed a two-stage genome-wide association study totaling 111,326 clinically diagnosed/'proxy' AD cases and 677,663 controls. We found 75 risk loci, of which 42 were new at the time of analysis. Pathway enrichment analyses confirmed the involvement of amyloid/tau pathways and highlighted microglia implication. Gene prioritization in the new loci identified 31 genes that were suggestive of new genetically associated processes, including the tumor necrosis factor alpha pathway through the linear ubiquitin chain assembly complex. We also built a new genetic risk score associated with the risk of future AD/dementia or progression from mild cognitive impairment to AD/dementia. The improvement in prediction led to a 1.6- to 1.9-fold increase in AD risk from the lowest to the highest decile, in addition to effects of age and the APOE ε4 allele

Vulnerable newborn types: analysis of subnational, population-based birth cohorts for 541 285 live births in 23 countries, 2000–2021

Objective: To examine prevalence of novel newborn types among 541 285 live births in 23 countries from 2000 to 2021. Design: Descriptive multi-country secondary data analysis. Setting: Subnational, population-based birth cohort studies (n = 45) in 23 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) spanning 2000–2021. Population: Liveborn infants. Methods: Subnational, population-based studies with high-quality birth outcome data from LMICs were invited to join the Vulnerable Newborn Measurement Collaboration. We defined distinct newborn types using gestational age (preterm [PT], term [T]), birthweight for gestational age using INTERGROWTH-21st standards (small for gestational age [SGA], appropriate for gestational age [AGA] or large for gestational age [LGA]), and birthweight (low birthweight, LBW [<2500 g], nonLBW) as ten types (using all three outcomes), six types (by excluding the birthweight categorisation), and four types (by collapsing the AGA and LGA categories). We defined small types as those with at least one classification of LBW, PT or SGA. We presented study characteristics, participant characteristics, data missingness, and prevalence of newborn types by region and study. Results: Among 541 285 live births, 476 939 (88.1%) had non-missing and plausible values for gestational age, birthweight and sex required to construct the newborn types. The median prevalences of ten types across studies were T+AGA+nonLBW (58.0%), T+LGA+nonLBW (3.3%), T+AGA+LBW (0.5%), T+SGA+nonLBW (14.2%), T+SGA+LBW (7.1%), PT+LGA+nonLBW (1.6%), PT+LGA+LBW (0.2%), PT+AGA+nonLBW (3.7%), PT+AGA+LBW (3.6%) and PT+SGA+LBW (1.0%). The median prevalence of small types (six types, 37.6%) varied across studies and within regions and was higher in Southern Asia (52.4%) than in Sub-Saharan Africa (34.9%). Conclusions: Further investigation is needed to describe the mortality risks associated with newborn types and understand the implications of this framework for local targeting of interventions to prevent adverse pregnancy outcomes in LMICs.The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, grant 2004-04670. The funders had no role in the study design, data collection, analysis or interpretation of the paper