A model of Black Sea circulation with strait exchange (2008–2018)

The Bosphorus exchange is of critical importance for hydrodynamics and hydroclimatology of the Black Sea. In this study, we report on the development of a medium-resolution circulation model of the Black Sea, making use of surface atmospheric forcing with high space and time resolution, climatic river fluxes and strait exchange, enabled by adding elementary details of strait and coastal topography and seasonal hydrology specified in an artificial box on the Marmara Sea side. Particular attention is given to circulation, mixing and convective water mass formation processes in the model, which are then compared with observations. Open boundary conditions relaxed to seasonal hydrology specified in the artificial box are found to enable Bosphorus exchange with a proper upper layer, lower layer and net fluxes comparable to the observed ranges. These improvements at the artificial boundary and in the interior evolution of the Black Sea allow the study to capture daily, seasonal to decadal climatic variability and change observed in the Black Sea in the last few decades.publishedVersio

Influence of sea level rise on the dynamics of salt inflows in the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is a marginal sea, located in a highly industrialized region in Central Northern Europe. Saltwater inflows from the North Sea and associated ventilation of the deep exert crucial control on the entire Baltic Sea ecosystem. This study explores the impact of anticipated sea level changes on the dynamics of those inflows. We use a numerical oceanic general circulation model covering both the Baltic and the North Sea. The model successfully retraces the essential ventilation dynamics throughout the period 1961–2007. A suite of idealized experiments suggests that rising sea level is associated with intensified ventilation as saltwater inflows become stronger, longer, and more frequent. Expressed quantitatively as a salinity increase in the deep central Baltic Sea, we find that a sea level rise of 1 m triggers a saltening of more than 1 PSU. This substantial increase in ventilation is the consequence of the increasing cross section in the Danish Straits amplified by a reduction of vertical mixin

Trivial gain of downscaling in future projections of higher trophic levels in the Nordic and Barents Seas

Downscaling physical forcing from global climate models is both time consuming and labor demanding and can delay or limit the physical forcing available for regional marine ecosystem modelers. Earlier studies have shown that downscaled physics is necessary for capturing the dynamics of primary production and lower trophic levels; however, it is not clear how higher trophic levels respond to the coarse resolution physics of global models. Here, we apply the Nordic and Barents Seas Atlantis ecosystem model (NoBa) to study the consequences of using physical forcing from global climate models versus using that from regional models. The study is therefore (i) a comparison between a regional model and its driving global model to investigate the extent to which a global climate model can be used for regional ecosystem predictions and (ii) a study of the impact of future climate change in the Nordic and Barents Seas. We found that few higher trophic level species were affected by using forcing from a global versus a regional model, and there was a general agreement in future biomass trends and distribution patterns. However, the slight difference in temperature between the models dramatically impacted Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua), which highlights how species projection uncertainty could arise from poor physical representation of the physical forcing, in addition to uncertainty in the ecosystem model parameterization.publishedVersio

Uncertainties in projections of the baltic sea ecosystem driven by an ensemble of global climate models

Many coastal seas worldwide are affected by human impacts such as eutrophication causing, inter alia, oxygen depletion, and extensive areas of hypoxia. Depending on the region, global warming may reinforce these environmental changes by reducing air-sea oxygen fluxes, intensifying internal nutrient cycling, and increasing river-borne nutrient loads. The development of appropriate management plans to effectively protect the marine environment requires projections of future marine ecosystem states. However, projections with regional climate models commonly suffer from shortcomings in the driving global General Circulation Models (GCMs). The differing sensitivities of GCMs to increased greenhouse gas concentrations affect regional projections considerably. In this study, we focused on one of the most threatened coastal seas, the Baltic Sea, and estimated uncertainties in projections due to climate model deficiencies and due to unknown future greenhouse gas concentration, nutrient load and sea level rise scenarios. To address the latter, simulations of the period 1975–2098 were performed using the initial conditions from an earlier reconstruction with the same Baltic Sea model (starting in 1850). To estimate the impacts of climate model uncertainties, dynamical downscaling experiments with four driving global models were carried out for two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and for three nutrient load scenarios, covering the plausible range between low and high loads. The results suggest that changes in nutrient supply, in particular phosphorus, control the long-term (centennial) response of eutrophication, biogeochemical fluxes and oxygen conditions in the deep water. The analysis of simulated primary production, nitrogen fixation, and hypoxic areas shows that uncertainties caused by the various nutrient load scenarios are greater than the uncertainties due to climate model uncertainties and future greenhouse gas concentrations. In all scenario simulations, a proposed nutrient load abatement strategy, i.e., the Baltic Sea Action Plan, will lead to a significant improvement in the overall environmental state. However, the projections cannot provide detailed information on the timing and the reductions of future hypoxic areas, due to uncertainties in salinity projections caused by uncertainties in projections of the regional water cycle and of the mean sea level outside the model domain.publishedVersio

Remineralization rate of terrestrial DOC as inferred from CO2 supersaturated coastal waters

Coastal seas receive large amounts of terrestrially derived organic carbon (OC). The fate of this carbon, and its impact on the marine environment, is however poorly understood. Here we combine underway CO2 partial pressure (pCO(2)) measurements with coupled 3-D hydrodynamical-biogeochemical modelling to investigate whether remineralization of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (tDOC) can explain CO2 supersaturated surface waters in the Gulf of Bothnia, a subarctic estuary. We find that a substantial remineralization of tDOC and a strong tDOC-induced light attenuation dampening the primary production are required to reproduce the observed CO2 supersaturated waters in the nearshore areas. A removal rate of tDOC of the order of 1 year, estimated in a previous modelling study in the same area, gives a good agreement between modelled and observed pCO(2). The remineralization rate is on the same order as bacterial degradation rates calculated from published incubation experiments, suggesting that bacteria has the potential to cause this degradation. Furthermore, the observed high pCO(2) values during the ice-covered season argue against photochemical degradation as the main removal mechanism. All of the remineralized tDOC is outgassed to the atmosphere in the model, turning the northernmost part of the Gulf of Bothnia into a source of CO2 to the atmosphere.peerReviewe

Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates

The Baltic Sea is a shallow, semi-enclosed brackish sea suffering like many other coastal seas from eutrophication caused by human impact. Hence, nutrient load abatement strategies are intensively discussed. With the help of a high-resolution, coupled physical-biogeochemical circulation model we investigate the combined impact of changing nutrient loads from land and changing climate during the 21st century as projected from a global climate model regionalized to the Baltic Sea region. Novel compared to previous studies are an extraordinary spin-up based upon historical reconstructions of atmospheric, nutrient load and runoff forcing, revised nutrient load scenarios and a comparison of nutrient load scenario simulations with and without changing climate. We found in almost all scenario simulations, with differing nutrient inputs, reduced eutrophication and improved ecological state compared to the reference period 1976–2005. This result is a long-lasting consequence of ongoing nutrient load reductions since the 1980s. Only in case of combined high-end nutrient load and climate scenarios, eutrophication is reinforced. Differences compared to earlier studies are explained by the experimental setup including nutrient loads during the historical period and by the projected nutrient loads. We found that the impact of warming climate may amplify the effects of eutrophication and primary production. However, effects of changing climate, within the range of considered greenhouse gas emission scenarios, are smaller than effects of considered nutrient load changes, in particular under low nutrient conditions. Hence, nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan will lead to improved environmental conditions independently of future climate change.publishedVersio

Pan-Arctic suitable habitat model for Greenland halibut

Deep-sea marine fishes support important fisheries but estimates of their distributions are often incomplete as the data behind them may reflect fishing practices, access rights, or political boundaries, rather than actual geographic distributions. We use a simple suitable habitat model based on bottom depth, temperature, and salinity to estimate the potential distribution of Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides). A large presence-only dataset is examined using multivariate kernel densities to define environmental envelopes, which we link to spatial distribution using a pan-Arctic oceanographic model. Occurrences generally fit the model well, although there were gaps in the predicted circum-Arctic distribution likely due to limited survey activity in many of the ice-covered seas around the Arctic Ocean. Bottom temperature and depth were major factors defining model fit to observations, but other factors, such as ecosystem interactions and larval drift could also influence distribution. Model predictions can be tested by increasing sampling effort in poorly explored regions and by studying the connectivity of putative populations. While abundances of Greenland halibut in the High Arctic are currently low, some areas are predicted to be suitable habitat for this species, suggesting that on-going sea-ice melt may lead to fisheries expansion into new areas

Long-term characteristics of simulated ice deformation in the Baltic Sea (1962–2007)

[1] The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is a frequently used measure for the mean winter conditions in Northern Europe. A positive, high index is associated with strong westerlies and anomalous warm temperatures. The effects on sea ice conditions in the Baltic Sea are twofold. Warm temperatures prevent sea ice formation. If ice is present nevertheless, the strong winds can promote the formation of ice ridges which hinders ship traffic. We use an ocean-sea ice model to investigate the NAO impact on the ridged ice area fraction in the Baltic during 1962–2007. Our simulations indicate that in the northern Bothnian Bay, a high NAO index is related to an anomalous accumulation of ridges, while in the rest of the Baltic Sea, the relationship is contrary. The NAO explains locally at most only 20–25% of the ridged ice fraction interannual variability which indicates the systems complexity. However, we find high skill with local correlations around 0.8 for annually averaged ridged ice fraction reconstructed from multilinear regression using winter averaged wind extremes, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST). This suggests that the amount of ridged ice in late winter can be derived from these routinely measured quantities. In large parts of the basin, it is sufficient to use the atmospheric parameters as a predictor, while in the eastern Bothnian Bay and southern Gulf of Finland, the SST is required to reconstruct the bulk of the ridged ice fraction