A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe

We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe' (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE's area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model's forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10-20yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European regio

Subsequent cultivation of chondrocytes and mesenchymal stem cells on the devitalised tissue

The regeneration of cartilage lesions still represents a major challenge. Cartilage has a tissue-specific architecture, complicating recreation by synthetic biomaterials. A novel approach for reconstruction is the use of devitalised cartilage. Treatment with high hydrostatic pressure (HHP) achieves devitalisation while biomechanical properties are remained. Therefore, in the present study, cartilage was devitalised using HHP treatment and the potential for revitalisation with chondrocytes and mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) was investigated. The devitalisation of cartilage was performed by application of 480 MPa over 10 minutes. Effective cellular inactivation was demonstrated by the trypan blue exclusion test and DNA quantification. Histology and electron microscopy examinations showed undamaged cartilage structure after HHP treatment. For revitalisation chondrocytes and MSCs were cultured on devitalised cartilage without supplementation of chondrogenic growth factors. Both chondrocytes and MSCs significantly increased expression of cartilage- specific genes. ECM stainings showed neocartilage-like structure with positive AZAN staining as well as collagen type II and aggrecan deposition after three weeks of cultivation. Our results showed that HHP treatment caused devitalisation of cartilage tissue. ECM proteins were not influenced, thus, providing a scaffold for chondrogenic differentiation of MSCs and chondrocytes. Therefore, using HHP-treated tissue might be a promising approach for cartilage repair

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE, 2009–2013). The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the “Global Earthquake Model” initiative. It might serve as a reference model for various applications, from earthquake preparedness to earthquake risk mitigation strategies, including the update of the European seismic regulations for building design (Eurocode 8), and thus it is useful for future safety assessment and improvement of private and public buildings. Although its results constitute a reference for Europe, they do not replace the existing national design regulations that are in place for seismic design and construction of buildings. The ESHM13 represents a significant improvement compared to previous efforts as it is based on (1) the compilation of updated and harmonised versions of the databases required for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (2) the adoption of standard procedures and robust methods, especially for expert elicitation and consensus building among hundreds of European experts, (3) the multi-disciplinary input from all branches of earthquake science and engineering, (4) the direct involvement of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in defining output specifications relevant for Eurocode 8 and (5) the accounting for epistemic uncertainties of model components and hazard results. Furthermore, enormous effort was devoted to transparently document and ensure open availability of all data, results and methods through the European Facility for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.​efehr.​org)

Galaxy and Mass Assembly (GAMA): Variation in Galaxy Structure Across the Green Valley

Using a sample of 472 local Universe (z < 0.06) galaxies in the stellar mass range 10.25 < log M*/MG < 10.75, we explore the variation in galaxy structure as a function of morphology and galaxy colour. Our sample of galaxies is sub-divided into red, green and blue colour groups and into elliptical and non-elliptical (disk-type) morphologies. Using KiDS and VIKING derived postage stamp images, a group of eight volunteers visually classified bars, rings, morphological lenses, tidal streams, shells and signs of merger activity for all systems. We find a significant surplus of rings (2.3σ) and lenses (2.9σ) in disk-type galaxies as they transition across the green valley. Combined, this implies a joint ring/lens green valley surplus significance of 3.3σ relative to equivalent disk-types within either the blue cloud or the red sequence. We recover a bar fraction of ∼ 44% which remains flat with colour, however, we find that the presence of a bar acts to modulate the incidence of rings and (to a lesser extent) lenses, with rings in barred disk-type galaxies more common by ∼ 20 − 30 percentage points relative to their unbarred counterparts, regardless of colour. Additionally, green valley disk-type galaxies with a bar exhibit a significant 3.0σ surplus of lenses relative to their blue/red analogues. The existence of such structures rules out violent transformative events as the primary end-of-life evolutionary mechanism, with a more passive scenario the favoured candidate for the majority of galaxies rapidly transitioning across the green valley. Key words: galaxies: elliptical and lenticular, cD – galaxies: spiral – galaxies: evo- lution – galaxies: star formation – galaxies: statistics – galaxies: structur

A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe

ISSN:0956-540XISSN:1365-246

GALAPAGOS-C : Analysis of galaxy morphologies using high-performance computing methods

We present GALAPAGOS-C, a code designed to process a complete set of survey images through automation of source detection (via SEXTRACTOR), postage stamp cutting, object mask preparation, sky background estimation and complex two-dimensional light profile Sérsic modelling (via GALFIT). GALAPAGOS-C is designed around the concept of MPI-parallelization, allowing the processing of large data sets in a quick and efficient manner. Further, GALAPAGOS-C is capable of fitting multiple-Sérsic profiles to each galaxy, each representing distinct galaxy components (e.g. bulge, disc, bar), in addition to the option to fit asymmetric Fourier mode distortions. The modelling reliability of our core single-Sérsic fitting capability is tested thoroughly using image simulations.We apply GALAPAGOS-C to the Space Telescope A901/902 Galaxy Evolution Survey to investigate the evolution of galaxy structure with cosmic time and the dependence on environment. We measure the distribution of Sérsic indices as a function of local object density in the A901/902 cluster sample to provide one of the first measures of the Sérsic index- density relation. We find that the fraction of galaxies with a high Sérsic index (2.5 < n < 7.0) is higher in denser environments (35 per cent), halving towards sparsely populated regions (15 per cent). The population of low Sérsic index galaxies (0.4 < n< 1.6) is lower in denser environments (35 per cent), increasing towards sparsely populated regions (60 per cent). The population of intermediate Sérsic index galaxies (1.6 < n < 2.5) approximately follows the trend of the high Sérsic index types.Peer reviewe

A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe

We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe’ (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE’s area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model’s forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10–20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region.EC-Research FP7-projects, SHARE, under grant agreement No. 226967 and NERA, under grant agreement No. 262330Published1159-11722T. Tettonica attiva3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischioJCR Journalrestricte