Detecting failure of climate predictions

The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055

Parental behaviour of a precocial species: implications for juvenile survival

Parents determine habitat selection for precocial young by leading their young to foraging areas until the chicks attain full independence. There are potential benefits and costs to reproductive success associated with changing habitats while caring for young. This study investigated the relationship between different types of habitats and their quality on chick survival and brood movements of a declining upland shorebird, the mountain plover Charadrius montanus.From 2004 to 2006, a total of 153 mountain plover broods were monitored on the primary breeding habitats in eastern Colorado, USA; two shortgrass prairie habitats that were either occupied or unoccupied by black-tailed prairie dogs Cynomys ludovicianus and agricultural lands. Habitat quality hypotheses were tested using newly developed statistical applications to estimate survival of chicks and brood movement patterns.Chick survival and brood movements were influenced by habitat. Chick survival over the 30-day brood-rearing period was substantially higher on nesting habitat of shortgrass occupied by prairie dogs compared with agricultural land and shortgrass unoccupied by prairie dogs. The rate of brood movement away from shortgrass with prairie dogs was lower than shortgrass without prairie dogs, but higher than agricultural lands for each year of the study.This study suggests that complex processes influence how different habitats affect brood-rearing activity of mountain plovers. Even though broods moved off nesting habitat of shortgrass occupied by prairie dogs, this habitat had the highest survival rate and is highly important to mountain plover reproductive success.Synthesis and applications. In order to develop effective conservation strategies, the provision of adequate breeding habitat should include information on patterns of habitat selection for all stages of the breeding cycle, including the nesting and dependent young periods. From a conservation perspective, understanding the habitat use of young birds is critical when population dynamics show great sensitivity to survival of young. Previous studies on mountain plovers have suggested that nest success is similar among shortgrass prairie habitats and agricultural lands. Thus, conservation measures that increase nest success may be ineffective for mountain plovers unless they are accompanied by measures promoting chick survival

Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models

We consider multi-state capture-recapture-recovery data where observed individuals are recorded in a set of possible discrete states. Traditionally, the Arnason-Schwarz model has been fitted to such data where the state process is modeled as a first-order Markov chain, though second-order models have also been proposed and fitted to data. However, low-order Markov models may not accurately represent the underlying biology. For example, specifying a (time-independent) first-order Markov process assumes that the dwell time in each state (i.e., the duration of a stay in a given state) has a geometric distribution, and hence that the modal dwell time is one. Specifying time-dependent or higher-order processes provides additional flexibility, but at the expense of a potentially significant number of additional model parameters. We extend the Arnason-Schwarz model by specifying a semi-Markov model for the state process, where the dwell-time distribution is specified more generally, using for example a shifted Poisson or negative binomial distribution. A state expansion technique is applied in order to represent the resulting semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz model in terms of a simpler and computationally tractable hidden Markov model. Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models come with only a very modest increase in the number of parameters, yet permit a significantly more flexible state process. Model selection can be performed using standard procedures, and in particular via the use of information criteria. The semi-Markov approach allows for important biological inference to be drawn on the underlying state process, for example on the times spent in the different states. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated in a simulation study, before being applied to real data corresponding to house finches where the states correspond to the presence or absence of conjunctivitis

Variations in age- and sex-specific survival rates help explain population trend in a discrete marine mammal population

Funded by Department of Energy and Climate ChangePeer reviewedPublisher PD

Long-term trends in survival of a declining population: the case of the little owl (Athene noctua) in the Netherlands

The little owl (Athene noctua) has declined significantly in many parts of Europe, including the Netherlands. To understand the demographic mechanisms underlying their decline, we analysed all available Dutch little owl ringing data. The data set spanned 35 years, and included more than 24,000 ringed owls, allowing detailed estimation of survival rates through multi-state capture–recapture modelling taking dispersal into account. We investigated geographical and temporal variation in age-specific survival rates and linked annual survival estimates to population growth rate in corresponding years, as well as to environmental covariates. The best model for estimating survival assumed time effects on both juvenile and adult survival rates, with average annual survival estimated at 0.258 (SE = 0.047) and 0.753 (SE = 0.019), respectively. Juvenile survival rates decreased with time whereas adult survival rates fluctuated regularly among years, low survival occurring about every 4 years. Years when the population declined were associated with low juvenile survival. More than 60% of the variation in juvenile survival was explained by the increase in road traffic intensity or in average temperature in spring, but these correlations rather reflect a gradual decrease in juvenile survival coinciding with long-term global change than direct causal effects. Surprisingly, vole dynamics did not explain the cyclic dynamics of adult survival rate. Instead, dry and cold years led to low adult survival rates. Low juvenile survival rates, that limit recruitment of first-year breeders, and the regular occurrence of years with poor adult survival, were the most important determinants of the population decline of the little owl

Livestock grazing alters multiple ecosystem properties and services in salt marshes: a meta-analysis

1.The far-reaching impacts of livestock grazing in terrestrial grasslands are widely appreciated, but how livestock affect the structure and functions of sensitive coastal ecosystems has hitherto lacked synthesis. Grazing-induced changes in salt marshes have the potential to alter the provision of valuable ecosystem services, such as coastal protection, blue carbon and biodiversity conservation.2.To investigate how livestock alter soil, vegetation and faunal properties in salt marshes, we conducted a global meta-analysis of ungulate grazer impacts on commonly measured ecosystem properties (498 individual responses from 89 studies). We also tested stocking density, grazing duration, grazer identity, and continent and vegetation type as potential modifiers of the grazing effect. The majority of studies were conducted in Europe (75) or the Americas (12), and investigated cattle (43) or sheep (22) grazing.3.All measures of aboveground plant material (height, cover, aboveground biomass, litter) were decreased by grazing, potentially impairing coastal protection through diminished wave attenuation.4.Soil carbon was reduced by grazing in American, but not European marshes, indicating a trade-off with climate regulation that varies geographically. Additionally, grazing increased soil bulk density, salinity and daytime temperature, and reduced redox potential.5.Biodiversity responses depended on focal group, with positive effects of grazing on vegetation species richness, but negative effects on invertebrate richness. Grazing reduced the abundance of herbivorous invertebrates, which may affect fish and crustaceans that feed in the marsh. Overall vertebrate abundance was not affected, but there was provisional evidence for increases over a longer duration of grazing, potentially increasing birdwatching and wildfowling opportunities.6.Synthesis and applications. Our results reveal that the use of salt marshes for livestock production affects multiple ecosystem properties, creating trade-offs and synergies with other ecosystem services. Grazing leads to reductions in blue carbon in the Americas but not in Europe. Grazing may compromise coastal protection and the provision of a nursery habitat for fish while creating provisioning and cultural benefits through increased wildfowl abundance. These findings can inform salt marsh grazing management, based on local context and desired ecosystem services