Waveguide-based single-pixel up-conversion infrared spectrometer

A periodically poled lithium niobate (PPLN) waveguide-based single-pixel up-conversion infrared spectrometer was demonstrated. Sum-frequency generation between a 1.5 micrometer band scanning pump laser and a 1.3 micrometer band signal generated visible radiation which was detected by a silicon single-photon detector. The noise equivalent power of the upconversion spectrometer was two-orders-of-magnitude lower than that of a commercial optical spectrum analyzer.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Risk Preferences, Perceptions and Systematic Biases

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/21/06.Risk and Uncertainty,

Markov-switching generalized additive models

We consider Markov-switching regression models, i.e. models for time series regression analyses where the functional relationship between covariates and response is subject to regime switching controlled by an unobservable Markov chain. Building on the powerful hidden Markov model machinery and the methods for penalized B-splines routinely used in regression analyses, we develop a framework for nonparametrically estimating the functional form of the effect of the covariates in such a regression model, assuming an additive structure of the predictor. The resulting class of Markov-switching generalized additive models is immensely flexible, and contains as special cases the common parametric Markov-switching regression models and also generalized additive and generalized linear models. The feasibility of the suggested maximum penalized likelihood approach is demonstrated by simulation and further illustrated by modelling how energy price in Spain depends on the Euro/Dollar exchange rate

Evaluation of (non-sink) AIJ projects in developing countries (Ensadec)

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Estimating the Benefits of Bt Corn and Cost of Insect Resistance Management Ex Ante

This paper estimates farmer benefits for corn rootworm (CRW) active Bt corn and costs of complying with Environmental Protection Agency insect resistance management requirements. The estimates are obtained from farmer survey data that were collected in Minnesota in 2002, just prior to the commercial releases of CRW Bt corn. Benefit estimates range from $14 to$33.4 million, while compliance cost estimated range from $3.5 to$8.7 million depending on whether or not CRW Bt corn also controlled the European corn borer and whether of not it was approved for sale in major export markets.Bt corn, compliance costs, corn rootworm, insect resistance management, willingness to pay, Crop Production/Industries,

Nonparametric inference in hidden Markov models using P-splines

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are flexible time series models in which the distributions of the observations depend on unobserved serially correlated states. The state-dependent distributions in HMMs are usually taken from some class of parametrically specified distributions. The choice of this class can be difficult, and an unfortunate choice can have serious consequences for example on state estimates, on forecasts and generally on the resulting model complexity and interpretation, in particular with respect to the number of states. We develop a novel approach for estimating the state-dependent distributions of an HMM in a nonparametric way, which is based on the idea of representing the corresponding densities as linear combinations of a large number of standardized B-spline basis functions, imposing a penalty term on non-smoothness in order to maintain a good balance between goodness-of-fit and smoothness. We illustrate the nonparametric modeling approach in a real data application concerned with vertical speeds of a diving beaked whale, demonstrating that compared to parametric counterparts it can lead to models that are more parsimonious in terms of the number of states yet fit the data equally well

100 km secure differential phase shift quantum key distribution with low jitter up-conversion detectors

We present a quantum key distribution experiment in which keys that were secure against all individual eavesdropping attacks allowed by quantum mechanics were distributed over 100 km of optical fiber. We implemented the differential phase shift quantum key distribution protocol and used low timing jitter 1.55 um single-photon detectors based on frequency up-conversion in periodically poled lithium niobate waveguides and silicon avalanche photodiodes. Based on the security analysis of the protocol against general individual attacks, we generated secure keys at a practical rate of 166 bit/s over 100 km of fiber. The use of the low jitter detectors also increased the sifted key generation rate to 2 Mbit/s over 10 km of fiber.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure

Flexible and practical modeling of animal telemetry data: hidden Markov models and extensions

We discuss hidden Markov-type models for fitting a variety of multistate random walks to wildlife movement data. Discrete-time hidden Markov models (HMMs) achieve considerable computational gains by focusing on observations that are regularly spaced in time, and for which the measurement error is negligible. These conditions are often met, in particular for data related to terrestrial animals, so that a likelihood-based HMM approach is feasible. We describe a number of extensions of HMMs for animal movement modeling, including more flexible state transition models and individual random effects (fitted in a non-Bayesian framework). In particular we consider so-called hidden semi-Markov models, which may substantially improve the goodness of fit and provide important insights into the behavioral state switching dynamics. To showcase the expediency of these methods, we consider an application of a hierarchical hidden semi-Markov model to multiple bison movement paths

Correlated photon-pair generation in reverse-proton-exchange PPLN waveguides with integrated mode demultiplexer at 10 GHz clock

We report 10-ps correlated photon pair generation in periodically-poled reverse-proton-exchange lithium niobate waveguides with integrated mode demultiplexer at a wavelength of 1.5-um and a clock of 10 GHz. Using superconducting single photon detectors, we observed a coincidence to accidental count ratio (CAR) as high as 4000. The developed photon-pair source may find broad application in quantum information systems as well as quantum entanglement experiments.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, presented at 2007 CLEO conferenc