57 research outputs found

    Challenges for forecasting based on accelerating rates of earthquakes at volcanoes and laboratory analogues

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    International audience'Mean-field' models have been proposed as falsifiable hypotheses for the acceleration in earthquake rate and other geophysical parameters prior to laboratory rock failure and volcanic eruptions. Importantly, such models may permit forecasting failure or eruption time. However, in existing retrospective analyses it is common to find examples of inappropriate techniques for fitting these models to data. Here we test the two main competing hypotheses exponential and power-law acceleration--using maximum likelihood techniques and an information criterion for model choice, based on a Poisson process with variable rate. For examples from the laboratory and Mt Etna, the power law is clearly the best model, both in terms of the fit and the resulting error structure, which is consistent with the Poisson approximation. For examples from Kilauea and Mauna Loa the results are less clear-cut and the confidence interval underestimates the number of outliers. Deviations from the models most likely reflect local interactions and/or non-stationary loading processes not captured by the mean-field approach. In addition, we use simulations to demonstrate an inherent problem with model preference, in that a power-law model will only be preferred if failure or eruption occurs close to the singularity. Although mean-field models may well provide valuable insight into the physical process responsible for precursory accelerations in earthquake rate, our findings highlight major difficulties that must be overcome to use such models for forecasting

    Weed resistance to synthetic auxin herbicides

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    Herbicides classified as synthetic auxins have been most commonly used to control broadleaf weeds in a variety of crops and in non-cropland areas since the first synthetic auxin herbicide (SAH), 2,4-D, was introduced to the market in the mid-1940s. The incidence of weed species resistant to SAHs is relatively low considering their long-term global application with 29 broadleaf weed species confirmed resistant to date. An understanding of the context and mechanisms of SAH resistance evolution can inform management practices to sustain the longevity and utility of this important class of herbicides. A symposium was convened during the 2nd Global Herbicide Resistance Challenge (May 2017 in Denver, CO, USA) to provide an overview of the current state of knowledge of SAH resistance mechanisms including case studies of weed species resistant to SAHs and perspectives on mitigating resistance development in SAH-tolerant crops

    The Onfp Class in the Magellanic Clouds

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    The Onfp class of rotationally broadened, hot spectra was defined some time ago in the Galaxy, where its membership to date numbers only eight. The principal defining characteristic is a broad, centrally reversed He II λ\lambda4686 emission profile; other emission and absorption lines are also rotationally broadened. Recent surveys in the Magellanic Clouds (MCs) have brought the class membership there, including some related spectra, to 28. We present a survey of the spectral morphology and rotational velocities, as a first step toward elucidating the nature of this class. Evolved, rapidly rotating hot stars are not expected theoretically, because the stellar winds should brake the rotation. Luminosity classification of these spectra is not possible, because the principal criterion (He II λ\lambda4686) is peculiar; however, the MCs provide reliable absolute magnitudes, which show that they span the entire range from dwarfs to supergiants. The Onfp line-broadening distribution is distinct and shifted toward larger values from those of normal O dwarfs and supergiants with >99.99% confidence. All cases with multiple observations show line-profile variations, which even remove some objects from the class temporarily. Some of them are spectroscopic binaries; it is possible that the peculiar profiles may have multiple causes among different objects. The origin and future of these stars are intriguing; for instance, they could be stellar mergers and/or gamma-ray-burst progenitors.Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures, 2 tables; AJ accepte

    Forecasting volcanic eruptions and other material failure phenomena: An evaluation of the failure forecast method

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    International audiencePower‐law accelerations in the mean rate of strain, earthquakes and other precursors have been widely reported prior to material failure phenomena, including volcanic eruptions, landslides and laboratory deformation experiments, as predicted by several theoretical models. The Failure Forecast Method (FFM), which linearizes the power‐law trend, has been routinely used to forecast the failure time in retrospective analyses; however, its performance has never been formally evaluated. Here we use synthetic and real data, recorded in laboratory brittle creep experiments and at volcanoes, to show that the assumptions of the FFM are inconsistent with the error structure of the data, leading to biased and imprecise forecasts. We show that a Generalized Linear Model method provides higher‐quality forecasts that converge more accurately to the eventual failure time, accounting for the appropriate error distributions. This approach should be employed in place of the FFM to provide reliable quantitative forecasts and estimate their associated uncertaintie

    Altered ceramide metabolism is a feature in the extracellular vesicle-mediated spread of alpha-synuclein in Lewy body disorders

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    This study was funded by the Lewy Body Society and the Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson’s Research. A.H. and B.M.B. gratefully acknowledge funding from the Knut och Alice Wallenberg Stiftelse through the Wallenberg Centre for Molecular and Translational Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Sweden. S.T., M.K.D. and P.D.W. gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the European Regional Development Fund, Scottish Funding Council and Highlands and Islands Enterprise. Newcastle University TEM Services acknowledge BBSRC support (Grant code BB/R013942/1). The Research was supported by the National Institute for Health Research Newcastle Biomedical Research Centre based at Newcastle Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Newcastle University. The Newcastle Brain Tissue Resource is supported by grants from the UK Medical Research Council and the Brains for Dementia Research, a joint venture between Alzheimer’s Society and Alzheimer’s Research UK.Mutations in glucocerebrosidase (GBA) are the most prevalent genetic risk factor for Lewy body disorders (LBD)—collectively Parkinson’s disease, Parkinson’s disease dementia and dementia with Lewy bodies. Despite this genetic association, it remains unclear how GBA mutations increase susceptibility to develop LBD. We investigated relationships between LBD-specific glucocerebrosidase deficits, GBA-related pathways, and α-synuclein levels in brain tissue from LBD and controls, with and without GBA mutations. We show that LBD is characterised by altered sphingolipid metabolism with prominent elevation of ceramide species, regardless of GBA mutations. Since extracellular vesicles (EV) could be involved in LBD pathogenesis by spreading disease-linked lipids and proteins, we investigated EV derived from post-mortem cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and brain tissue from GBA mutation carriers and non-carriers. EV purified from LBD CSF and frontal cortex were heavily loaded with ceramides and neurodegeneration-linked proteins including alpha-synuclein and tau. Our in vitro studies demonstrate that LBD EV constitute a “pathological package” capable of inducing aggregation of wild-type alpha-synuclein, mediated through a combination of alpha-synuclein–ceramide interaction and the presence of pathological forms of alpha-synuclein. Together, our findings indicate that abnormalities in ceramide metabolism are a feature of LBD, constituting a promising source of biomarkers, and that GBA mutations likely accelerate the pathological process occurring in sporadic LBD through endolysosomal deficiency.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

    A reappraisal of explosive–effusive silicic eruption dynamics: syn-eruptive assembly of lava from the products of cryptic fragmentation

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    Silicic volcanic eruptions range in style from gently effusive to highly explosive, and may switch style unpredictably during a single eruption. Direct observations of subaerial rhyolitic eruptions (Chaiten 2008, Cordón Caulle 2011–2012, Chile) challenged long-standing paradigms of explosive and effusive eruptive styles and led to the formulation of new models of hybrid activity. However, the processes that govern such hybrid explosive–effusive activity remain poorly understood. Here, we bring together observations of the well-studied 2011–2012 Cordón Caulle eruption with new textural and petrologic data on erupted products, and video and still imagery of the eruption. We infer that all of the activity – explosive, effusive, and hybrid – was fed by explosive fragmentation at depth, and that effusive behaviour arose from sticking and sintering, in the shallow vent region, of the clastic products of deeper, cryptic fragmentation. We use a scaling approach to determine that there is sufficient time available, during emplacement, for diffusive pyroclast degassing and sintering to produce a degassed plug that occludes the shallow conduit, feeding clastogenic, apparently effusive, lava-like deposits. Based on evidence from Cordón Caulle, and from other similar eruptions, we further argue that hybrid explosive–effusive activity is driven by episodic gas-fracking of the occluding lava plug, fed by the underlying pressurized ash- and pyroclast-laden region. The presence of a pressurized pocket of ash-laden gas within the conduit provides a mechanism for generation of harmonic tremor, and for syn-eruptive laccolith intrusion, both of which were features of the Cordón Caulle eruption. We conclude that the cryptic fragmentation models is more consistent with available evidence than the prevailing model for effusion of silicic lava that assume coherent non-fragmental rise of magma from depth to the surface without wholesale explosive fragmentation

    Unconscious Agendas in the Etiology of Refractory Obesity and the Role of Hypnosis in their Identification and Resolution

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    Hypnosis has long been recognized as an effective tool for producing behavioral change in the eating disorders anorexia and bulimia. Despite many studies from the latter half of the last century suggesting that hypnosis might also be of value in managing obesity situations, the efficacy of hypnotherapy for weight reduction has received surprisingly little formal research attention since 2000. This review presents a brief history of early clinical studies using hypnosis for weight reduction and describes a hypnotherapeutic approach within which a combination of instructional/pedagogic and exploratory therapeutic sessions can work together synergistically to maximize the potential for sustained weight loss. Hypnotic modulation of appetite- and satiation-associated peptides and hormone levels may yield additional physiological benefits in Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes
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