Correlations and forecast of death tolls in the Syrian conflict

The Syrian armed conflict has been ongoing since 2011 and has already caused thousands of deaths. The analysis of death tolls helps to understand the dynamics of the conflict and to better allocate resources and aid to the affected areas. In this article, we use information on the daily number of deaths to study temporal and spatial correlations in the data, and exploit this information to forecast events of deaths. We found that the number of violent deaths per day in Syria varies more widely than that in England in which non-violent deaths dominate. We have identified strong positive auto-correlations in Syrian cities and non-trivial cross-correlations across some of them. The results indicate synchronization in the number of deaths at different times and locations, suggesting respectively that local attacks are followed by more attacks at subsequent days and that coordinated attacks may also take place across different locations. Thus the analysis of high temporal resolution data across multiple cities makes it possible to infer attack strategies, warn potential occurrence of future events, and hopefully avoid further deaths

The intertwined geopolitics and geoeconomics of hopes/fears:China’s triple economic bubbles and the ‘One Belt One Road’ imaginary

This paper adopts a discursive-cum-material approach to China's new 'One Belt One Road' (OBOR) geostrategic imaginary and its development through the intertwining of geopolitics and geoeconomics of hopes and fears. It first contextualizes this development after the 2008 financial crisis when China promoted a vast stimulus package that inflated existing property and infrastructure bubbles and fuelled another in finance. Resulting debates over crisis management enabled an incoming President Xi to articulate a set of hope-based discourses that came to include 'China Dream', 'New Normal' and the OBOR. Familiar cartographic statecraft techniques and novel spatial metaphors were used to promote the OBOR's allegedly 'win-win' strategy discursively. The OBOR imaginary was translated materially, and importantly, into policies that promoted a grand transregional 'spatial fix' to postpone China's over-accumulation crises. This strategy is consolidating a China-oriented infrastructural mode of growth in production, finance and security. As this absorbs ever more productive and financial capital, we see the emergence of contradictions, antagonisms and conflicts, especially in the use of bilateral loan-debt contractuality to appropriate strategic infrastructure. The paper concludes with a call for an affective turn examining the intertwining of geoeconomics and geopolitics in the analysis of transregional spatial fixes

Random Convex Hulls and Extreme Value Statistics

In this paper we study the statistical properties of convex hulls of $N$ random points in a plane chosen according to a given distribution. The points may be chosen independently or they may be correlated. After a non-exhaustive survey of the somewhat sporadic literature and diverse methods used in the random convex hull problem, we present a unifying approach, based on the notion of support function of a closed curve and the associated Cauchy's formulae, that allows us to compute exactly the mean perimeter and the mean area enclosed by the convex polygon both in case of independent as well as correlated points. Our method demonstrates a beautiful link between the random convex hull problem and the subject of extreme value statistics. As an example of correlated points, we study here in detail the case when the points represent the vertices of $n$ independent random walks. In the continuum time limit this reduces to $n$ independent planar Brownian trajectories for which we compute exactly, for all $n$, the mean perimeter and the mean area of their global convex hull. Our results have relevant applications in ecology in estimating the home range of a herd of animals. Some of these results were announced recently in a short communication [Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 103}, 140602 (2009)].Comment: 61 pages (pedagogical review); invited contribution to the special issue of J. Stat. Phys. celebrating the 50 years of Yeshiba/Rutgers meeting

Can mental health treatments help prevent or reduce intimate partner violence in low- and middle-income countries? A systematic review

Background Epidemiological research suggests an interrelationship between mental health problems and the (re)occurrence of intimate partner violence (IPV). However, little is known about the impact of mental health treatments on IPV victimization or perpetration, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Methods We conducted a systematic review to identify prospective, controlled studies of mental health treatments in LMIC. We defined ‘mental health treatment’ as an intervention for individuals experiencing mental ill health (including substance misuse) including a substantial psychosocial or pharmacological component. Studies had to measure a mental health and IPV outcome. We searched across multi-disciplinary databases using a structured search strategy. Screening of title/abstracts and full-text eligibility assessments were conducted by two researchers independently, data were extracted using a piloted spreadsheet, and a narrative synthesis was generated. Results We identified seven studies reported in 11 papers conducted in five middle-income countries. With the exception of blinding, studies overall showed acceptable levels of risk of bias. Four of the seven studies focused on dedicated mental health treatments in various populations, including: common mental disorders in earthquake survivors; depression in primary care; alcohol misuse in men; and alcohol misuse in female adult sex workers. The dedicated mental health treatments targeting depression or alcohol misuse consistently reduced levels of these outcomes. The two studies targeting depression also reduced short-term IPV, but no IPV benefits were identified in the two alcohol-focused studies. The other three studies evaluated integrated interventions, in which a focus on substance misuse was part of efforts to reduce HIV/AIDS and violence against particularly vulnerable women. In contrast to the dedicated mental health interventions, the integrated interventions did not consistently reduce mental ill health or alcohol misuse compared to control conditions. Conclusions Too few studies have been conducted to judge whether mental health treatments may provide a beneficial strategy to prevent or reduce IPV in LMIC. Key future research questions include: whether promising initial evidence on the effects of depression interventions on reducing IPV hold more broadly, the required intensity of mental health components in integrated interventions, and the identification of mechanisms of IPV that are amenable to mental health intervention

Engagement of Fusiform Cortex and Disengagement of Lateral Occipital Cortex in the Acquisition of Radiological Expertise

The human visual pathways that are specialized for object recognition stretch from lateral occipital cortex (LO) to the ventral surface of the temporal lobe, including the fusiform gyrus. Plasticity in these pathways supports the acquisition of visual expertise, but precisely how training affects the different regions remains unclear. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to measure neural activity in both LO and the fusiform gyrus in radiologists as they detected abnormalities in chest radiographs. Activity in the right fusiform face area (FFA) correlated with visual expertise, measured as behavioral performance during scanning. In contrast, activity in left LO correlated negatively with expertise, and the amount of LO that responded to radiographs was smaller in experts than in novices. Activity in the FFA and LO correlated negatively in experts, whereas in novices, the 2 regions showed no stable relationship. Together, these results suggest that the FFA becomes more engaged and left LO less engaged in interpreting radiographic images over the course of training. Achieving expert visual performance may involve suppressing existing neural representations while simultaneously developing others

Feasibility and efficacy of bypassing the right ventricle and pulmonary circulation to treat right ventricular failure: an experimental study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Right ventricular failure (RVF) and -support is associated with poor results. We aimed for a new approach of right - sided assistance bypassing the right ventricle and pulmonary circulation in order to better decompress the right ventricle and optimize left ventricular filling.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>From a microaxial pump (Abiomed), a low resistance oxygenator (Maquet and Novalung) and two cannulas (28 and 27 Fr) a system was set up and evaluated in an ovine model (n = 7). Connection with the heart was the right and left atrium. One hour the system was operated without RVF and turned of again. Then a RVF was induced and the course with the system running was evaluated. Complete hemodynamic monitoring was performed as well as echocardiography, flow measurement and blood gas analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The overall performance of the system was reliable. Without RVF no relevant changes of hemodynamics occurred; blood gases were supra normal. In RVF a cardiogenic shock developed (MAP 35 ± 13 mmHg, CO 1,1 ± 0,7 l/min). Immediately after starting the system the circulation normalized (significant increase of MAP to 85 ± 13 mmHg, of CO to 4,5 ± 1,9). Echocardiography also revealed right ventricular recovery. After stopping the system, RVF returned.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Bypassing the right ventricle and pulmonary circulation with an oxygenating assist device, which may offer the advantages of enhanced right ventricular decompression and augmented left atrial filling, is feasible and effective in the treatment of acute RVF. Long time experiments are needed.</p

The role of emotions and physiological arousal in modulating impulsive behaviour.

Impulsivity received considerable attention in the context of drug misuse and certain neuropsychiatric conditions. Because of its great health and well-being importance, it is crucial to understand factors which modulate impulsive behaviour. As a growing body of literature indicates the role of emotional and physiological states in guiding our actions and decisions, we argue that current affective state and physiological arousal exert a significant influence on behavioural impulsivity. As 'impulsivity' is a heterogeneous concept, in this paper, we review key theories of the topic and summarise information about distinct impulsivity subtypes and their methods of assessment, pointing out to the differences between the various components of the construct. Moreover, we review existing literature on the relationship between emotional states, arousal and impulsive behaviour and suggest directions for future research