Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach

Psychological studies show that most people are overconfident about their own relative abilities, and unreasonably optimistic about their futures (e.g., Neil D. Weinstein, 1980; Shelly E. Taylor and J. D. Brown, 1988). When assessing their position in a distribution of peers on almost any positive trait-like driving ability (Ola Svenson, 1981), income prospects, or longevity-a vast majority of people say they are above the average, although of course, only half can be (if the trait is symmetrically distributed)

To Review or Not to Review? Limited Strategic Thinking at the Movie Box Office

Film distributors occasionally withhold movies from critics before their release. Cold openings provide a natural field setting to test models of limited strategic thinking. In a set of 856 widely released movies, cold opening produces a significant 15% increase in domestic box office revenue (though not in foreign markets and DVD sales), consistent with the hypothesis that some moviegoers do not infer low quality from cold opening. Structural parameter estimates indicate 1–2 steps of strategic thinking by moviegoers (comparable to experimental estimates). However, movie studios appear to think moviegoers are sophisticated since only 7% of movies are opened cold

Precritical calculations for the 2.9 in. pitch, twmr critical assembly

Critical loadings and precritical calculations for 2.9 inch pitch core in determining feasibility of isotopically enriched tungsten water moderated reactor for use as nuclear rocke

Precritical calculations for the 3.0 in. pitch, beryllium reflected, TWMR critical assembly

Feasibility of isotopically enriched tungsten, water moderated reactor for nuclear rocke

Boom and Bust Behavior: On the Persistence of Strategic Decision Biases and their Collective Outcome

This work discusses the boom and bust dynamics which are a common feature of a large range of different industries. especially but not only new born ones. The common managerial behavior underpinning such dynamics is aggressive capacity expansion in the boom period ultimately yielding excess capacity turning the boom into bust. This paper examines the underlying cognitive and behavioral factors responsible for strategic decisions driving boom and busts, nested in the interaction between cognitive biases and capacity adjustment delay, and together tries to identify some tentative heuristics which tend to mitigate them. At the same time, we shall conjecturally conclude, there might be a positive collective side to boom and bust behavio r fostering accumulation of knowledge and physical infrastructure, especially regarding new technological paradigms.Boom and bust; Overconfidence; Capacity adjustment; Adaptive behavior

Complexity analysis in particulate matter measurements

We investigated the complex temporal fluctuations of particulate matter data recorded in London area by using the Fisher-Shannon (FS) information plane. In the FS plane the PM10 and PM2.5 data are aggregated in two different clusters, characterized by different degrees of order and organization. This results could be related to different sources of the particulate matter

Investigating non-uniform scaling behaviour in temporal fluctuations of seismicity

Scaling behaviour in nonstationary time series can be successfully detected using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Observational time series often do not show a stable and uniform scaling behaviour, given by the presence of a unique clear scaling region. The deviations from uniform power-law scaling, which suggest the presence of changing dynamics in the system under study, can be identified and quantified using an appropriate instability index. In this framework, the scaling behaviour of the 1981–2007 seismicity in Umbria-Marche (central Italy), which is one of the most seismically active areas in Italy, was investigated. Significant deviations from uniform power-law scaling in the seismic temporal fluctuations were revealed mostly linked with the occurrence of rather large earthquakes or seismic clusters

Are Large Physiological Reactions to Acute Psychological Stress Always Bad for Health?

How we react physiologically to stress has long been considered to have implications for our health. There is now persuasive evidence that individuals who show large cardiovascular reactions to stress are at increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease, particularly hypertension. By implication, low reactivity is protective or benign. However, there is recent evidence that low reactivity may predict elevated risk for a range of adverse health outcomes, such as depression, obesity, poor self-reported health, and compromised immunity. In addition, low cortisol and cardiovascular reactivity may be a characteristic of individuals with addictions to tobacco and alcohol, as well as those at risk of addiction and those who relapse from abstinence. Our ideas about reactivity may have to be revised in the light of such findings