Three essays in economics and politics

119 p.Esta tesis doctoral se compone de tres aplicaciones empíricas que pretenden realizar una investigación en profundidad en los campos de la Economía y la Ciencia Política.En el primer capítulo de la tesis se evalúa el impacto de la Revolución Islámica de 1978 en la economía iraní utilizando el método de control sintético. Para ello se emplean diversas técnicas de optimización, y se comparan para ver con cuál se obtienen mejores resultados en términos de bondad de ajuste. Los resultados indican que el PIB real anual per cápita en Irán disminuyó en torno al 20,15% en el periodo 1978-1980.En el segundo capítulo de la tesis se evalúan las implicaciones de la integración político-económica de Macao en la China continental utilizando y comparando las metodologías más recientes en materia de análisis de causalidad: el método de control sintético y el enfoque de datos de panel para el período 2000-2012. Más explícitamente, los efectos causales de la transición de Macao de colonia portuguesa a parte de China continental se analizan en términos de variables macroeconómicas como el PIB per cápita, el desempleo, la inversión extranjera directa per cápita, las exportaciones y las importaciones per cápita. Se concluye que el proceso de integración de Macao tuvo un efecto positivo tanto en el PIB per cápita como en la inversión extranjera directa per cápita. En cuanto a la tasa de desempleo, las exportaciones y las importaciones de bienes y servicios, los resultados varían en función de la metodología y el criterio de selección del modelo utilizado, por lo que no se pueden extraer conclusiones definitivas sobre estas variables.Finalmente, el último capítulo de la tesis se centra en la relación entre el diseño de las circunscripciones y el número de representantes elegidos por cada partido político. Se trata de una cuestión que interesa tanto a los politólogos como al público en general, ya que, dada la distribución de los votos por partido político, los diferentes diseños de las circunscripciones pueden dar lugar a un número diferente de escaños o diputados para cada partido político. Este fenómeno, también conocido como gerrymandering en la literatura, ha sido objeto de numerosos estudios, especialmente en Estados Unidos. En este capítulo se realiza una aplicación al caso de las elecciones generales de Malta de 2013 y 2017. Según los resultados de diversas pruebas estadísticas y simulaciones, en las dos últimas elecciones generales de Malta no se dieron escenarios de gerrymandering o sesgo partidista

State Estimatation in Smart Grids

Avrupa Metroloji Araştırma Programı (EMRP) altında 2013 yılında açılan “Enerji ve Çevre Çağrısı” kapsamında “ENG63 Sensor Network Metrology for the Determination of Electrical Grid Charecteristics (Elektriksel Şebeke Karakteristiklerinin Belirlenmesi İçin Sensör Ağ Metrolojisi)” isimli bir proje başlatılmıştır. Bu proje, 2013 yılında tamamlanan “Smart Electrical Grid for Metrology” isimli EMRP projesinin devamı niteliğinde bir projedir. Bu proje ile geliştirilen matematiksel ve istatiksel prosedürler ve güvenlik ölçümleri, şebekenin monitör edilmesi ve kontrolünün sağlanması amacıyla kullanılan sensör ağlarının ileri seviyede ölçümleri için gereklidir. Bu prosedürler, yüksek maliyette cihaz ihtiyacını da azaltacaktır. Ayrıca, mevcut şebekelerin yapısının belirlenmesi ve dağıtım hatları ve kontrollü yüklerde kullanımının optimize edilmesi amacıyla yeni teknikler geliştirilecektir. Proje kapsamında, TÜBİTAK UME diğer Metroloji Enstitüleri ile birlikte çeşitli iş paketlerini paylaşacak ve geliştirilecek olan şebeke durum tahmini ve sensör yerleşim algoritmalarının farklı elektrik şebekelerinde test edilmesini sağlayacaktır. Bu bildiride, “Sensor Network Metrology for the Determination of Electrical Grid Charecteristics” projesi kapsamında yapılacak olan çalışmalar hakkında bilgi verilecektir. A project named “ENG63 Sensor Network Metrology for the Determination of Electrical Grid Characteristics” has just started in the frame of Energy and Envoriment call in European Metrology Research Programme (EMRP) 2013. This project is a follow-up project of another EMRP project named "Smart Electrical Grid for Metrology" which was completed on 2013. Mathematical and statistical procedures and security measures are required for advanced measurement sensor networks used for grid monitoring and control. Such procedures will minimize the need for costly instrumentation. In addition, techniques must be developed to determine the structure of existing grids and to optimise their use of distributed generation and controllable loads. In this project, TÜBİTAK UME will colloborate in some work packages with other National Metrology Institutes and will provide testing of state estimatation and sensor placement algoritms in different distrubution grids. In this paper, the aim, need, workpages and the deliverables of the "Sensor Network Metrology for the Determination of Electrical Grid Characteristics" project will be given

Limitations in structural identification of large constructed structures

Journal of Structural EngineeringThe objective of this paper is to discuss the limitations in structural identification of large constructed structures. These limitations arise due to the geometric complexity, uncertain boundary and continuity conditions, loading environment, and the imperfect knowledge and errors in modeling such large constructed facilities. In this paper, the writers present their studies on developing a mixed microscopic-structural element level three-dimensional finite-element FE modeling of a long-span bridge structure and its structural system identification by integrating various experimental techniques. It is shown that a reasonable level of confidence 50–90% can be achieved with a model that is calibrated using global and local structural monitoring data with a sufficiently high spatial resolution. The reliability of the global attributes, such as boundary and continuity conditions that may be identified and simulated by means of field-calibrated models using only dynamic test results globally calibrated models , may appear to be high as much as 90% . However, the reliability that should be expected for local stress fields is shown to be an entirely different matter, and a calibration based on just dynamic testing would be unable to reveal the confidence in simulated local responses. This is especially true for long-span bridges, because the resolutions of the dynamic test grids are often quite sparse due to the large size of the structures. In this paper, the writers illustrate that the density, modality, and bandwidth of experimental data should be carefully evaluated and matched to the size and complexity of a constructed system before claiming that a FE model is validated. It is also shown that even more than three dozen acceleration measurement points, two dozen strain measurements, and a continuous surveillance of wind and temperature were barely sufficient for a credible structural identification of a long-span bridge

A microsatellite marker for yellow rust resistance in wheat

Bulk segregant analysis (BSA) was used to identify molecular markers associated with yellow rust disease resistance in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). DNAs isolated from the selected yellow rust tolerant and susceptible F-2 individuals derived from a cross between yellow rust resistant and susceptible wheat genotypes were used to established a "tolerant" and a "susceptible" DNA pool. The BSA was then performed on these DNA pools using 230 markers that were previously mapped onto the individual wheat chromosomes. One of the SSR markers (Xgwm382) located on chromosome group 2 (A, B, D genomes) was present in the resistant parent and the resistant bulk but not in the susceptible parent and the susceptible bulk, suggesting that this marker is linked to a yellow rust resistance gene. The presence of Xgwm382 was also tested in 108 additional wheat genotypes differing in yellow rust resistance. This analysis showed that 81% of the wheat genotypes known to be yellow rust resistant had the Xgwm382 marker, further suggesting that the presence of this marker correlates with yellow rust resistance in diverse wheat germplasm. Therefore, Xgwm382 could be useful for marker assisted selection of yellow rust resistances genotypes in wheat breeding programs

Scoping prediction of re-radiated ground-borne noise and vibration near high speed rail lines with variable soils

This paper outlines a vibration prediction tool, ScopeRail, capable of predicting in-door noise and vibration, within structures in close proximity to high speed railway lines. The tool is designed to rapidly predict vibration levels over large track distances, while using historical soil information to increase accuracy. Model results are compared to an alternative, commonly used, scoping model and it is found that ScopeRail offers higher accuracy predictions. This increased accuracy can potentially reduce the cost of vibration environmental impact assessments for new high speed rail lines. To develop the tool, a three-dimensional finite element model is first outlined capable of simulating vibration generation and propagation from high speed rail lines. A vast array of model permutations are computed to assess the effect of each input parameter on absolute ground vibration levels. These relations are analysed using a machine learning approach, resulting in a model that can instantly predict ground vibration levels in the presence of different train speeds and soil profiles. Then a collection of empirical factors are coupled with the model to allow for the prediction of structural vibration and in-door noise in buildings located near high speed lines. Additional factors are also used to enable the prediction of vibrations in the presence of abatement measures (e.g. ballast mats and floating slab tracks) and additional excitation mechanisms (e.g. wheelflats and switches/crossings)

The Maltese single transferable vote experience: a case study of gerrymandering?

Data de publicació electrònica: 25 de febrer de 2023Re-drawing the electoral boundaries to provide benefit to one particular political party and thereby damaging the principle of representation in democracy has been a core issue in political science in the recent years. For years social scientists have been advocating the idea of measuring or preventing the potential for damage that may arise from the existence of the above-mentioned redistricting process. Following this discussion, we investigate the possible gerrymandering phenomenon that might have arisen, or whether there are any asymmetries or partisan biases due to boundary delimitation of the electoral constituencies in the case of the Maltese general elections. From the evidence of various statistical tests and simulations, our conclusion is that we find no evidence of gerrymandering in the 2013 and 2017 Maltese general elections

Modal Representations and their Role in the Learning Process: A Theoretical and Pragmatic Analysis

WOS: 000376119400005In the construction and sharing of scientific knowledge, modal representations such as text, graphics, pictures, and mathematical expressions are commonly used. Due to the increasing importance of their role in the production and communication of science, modal representations have become a topic of growing interest in science education research in recent years. Resulting from this research are indications that students who can mentally identify modal representations, understand their function in communication, and make transitions between different representation modes learn scientific concepts more easily and permanently. Furthermore, when modal representations are integrated into writing-to-learn activities, they serve as an alternative method of teaching and measurement of assessment for teachers as well as a learning tool that activates students' cognitive abilities. In this study, the concept of representation, the framework of which has not yet been clearly established in the related literature in Turkey, and the characteristics of modal representations have been addressed together. Furthermore, their role in science education and writing-tolearn activities has been explored by considering their theoretical and pragmatic dimensions

A New Empirical Method to Predict Liquefaction-Induced Lateral Spread

Liquefaction-induced lateral spreading affects large areas and causes considerable damages to overlying structures and buried lifelines at shallow depths. In this study, the world-wide lateral spreading case studies compiled from literature and available records of some institutions were re-evaluated to assess the performance of the current empirical methods and to develop a new empirical method for predicting the magnitude of lateral spreading. The probability-based four empirical models were developed using the maximum likelihood methodology for predicting displacements of (a) a sloping ground, (b) a free face, of a ground (c) with and (d) without slope and free face, and their prediction performances were compared with those of the existing models