Short-term variability of solar wind number density, speed and dynamic pressure as a function of the interplanetary magnetic field components: A survey over two solar cycles

The variability of hourly values of solar wind number density, number density variation, speed, speed variation and dynamic pressure with IMF Bz and magnitude |B| has been examined for the period 1965–1986. We wish to draw attention to a strong correlation in number density and number density fluctuation with IMF Bz characterised by a symmetric increasing trend in these quantities away from Bz = 0 nT. The fluctuation level in solar wind speed is found to be relatively independent of Bz. We infer that number density and number density variability dominate in controlling solar wind dynamic pressure and dynamic pressure variability. It is also found that dynamic pressure is correlated with each component of IMF and that there is evidence of morphological differences between the variation with each component. Finally, we examine the variation of number density, speed, dynamic pressure and fluctuation level in number density and speed with IMF magnitude |B|. Again we find that number density variation dominates over solar wind speed in controlling dynamic pressure

Estimating the frequency of extremely energetic solar events, based on solar, stellar, lunar, and terrestrial records

The most powerful explosions on the Sun [...] drive the most severe space-weather storms. Proxy records of flare energies based on SEPs in principle may offer the longest time base to study infrequent large events. We conclude that one suggested proxy, nitrate concentrations in polar ice cores, does not map reliably to SEP events. Concentrations of select radionuclides measured in natural archives may prove useful in extending the time interval of direct observations up to ten millennia, but as their calibration to solar flare fluences depends on multiple poorly known properties and processes, these proxies cannot presently be used to help determine the flare energy frequency distribution. Being thus limited to the use of direct flare observations, we evaluate the probabilities of large-energy solar explosions by combining solar flare observations with an ensemble of stellar flare observations. We conclude that solar flare energies form a relatively smooth distribution from small events to large flares, while flares on magnetically-active, young Sun-like stars have energies and frequencies markedly in excess of strong solar flares, even after an empirical scaling with the mean activity level of these stars. In order to empirically quantify the frequency of uncommonly large solar flares extensive surveys of stars of near-solar age need to be obtained, such as is feasible with the Kepler satellite. Because the likelihood of flares larger than approximately X30 remains empirically unconstrained, we present indirect arguments, based on records of sunspots and on statistical arguments, that solar flares in the past four centuries have likely not substantially exceeded the level of the largest flares observed in the space era, and that there is at most about a 10% chance of a flare larger than about X30 in the next 30 years.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures (in press as of 2012/06/18); Journal of Geophysical Research (Space Physics), 201

A bear’s biography: hybrid warfare and the more-than-human battlespace

This paper makes an intervention highlighting the animal dimension of military geographies as an overlooked yet illuminating aspect of the hybrid nature of warfare. By bringing animal geographies into dialogue with critical military geographies and with a focus on relational ethics, the processes, performance and consequences of the more-than-human nature of the battlespace are examined through a vignette of Wojtek the bear. Wojtek was a mascot, pet and officially enlisted soldier of the Polish Army in the Second World War who travelled the desert plains, helped to fight at the Battle of Monte Cassino, before being demobbed with his fellow Polish comrades in the UK, eventually ending his civilian days in Edinburgh Zoo. Although a well-known figure Wojtek and his biography have predominately been used as a means to explore the Polish soldiers’ experience of the Second World War with the result that the bear as an animal is absent. This paper, therefore, puts the bear back into his biography in order to acknowledge the role and lived experience of animals in the military. Further, it suggests that exploring the place of animals in the military requires geographers to articulate the hybrid nature of warfare and also to explore the ethico-political relations this produces

Probabilistic solar wind and geomagnetic forecasting using an analogue ensemble or "Similar Day" approach

Effective space-weather prediction and mitigation requires accurate forecasting of near-Earth solar-wind conditions. Numerical magnetohydrodynamic models of the solar wind, driven by remote solar observations, are gaining skill at forecasting the large-scale solar-wind features that give rise to near-Earth variations over days and weeks. There remains a need for accurate short-term (hours to days) solar-wind forecasts, however. In this study we investigate the analogue ensemble (AnEn), or “similar day”, approach that was developed for atmospheric weather forecasting. The central premise of the AnEn is that past variations that are analogous or similar to current conditions can be used to provide a good estimate of future variations. By considering an ensemble of past analogues, the AnEn forecast is inherently probabilistic and provides a measure of the forecast uncertainty. We show that forecasts of solar-wind speed can be improved by considering both speed and density when determining past analogues, whereas forecasts of the out-of-ecliptic magnetic field [ BNBN ] are improved by also considering the in-ecliptic magnetic-field components. In general, the best forecasts are found by considering only the previous 6 – 12 hours of observations. Using these parameters, the AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast for solar-wind speed, density, and in-ecliptic magnetic field over lead times from a few hours to around four days. For BNBN , which is central to space-weather disturbance, the AnEn only provides a valuable forecast out to around six to seven hours. As the inherent predictability of this parameter is low, this is still likely a marked improvement over other forecast methods. We also investigate the use of the AnEn in forecasting geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp. The AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast of both indices out to around four days. We outline a number of future improvements to AnEn forecasts of near-Earth solar-wind and geomagnetic conditions

Magnetic Coordinate Systems

Geospace phenomena such as the aurora, plasma motion, ionospheric currents and associated magnetic field disturbances are highly organized by Earth's main magnetic field. This is due to the fact that the charged particles that comprise space plasma can move almost freely along magnetic field lines, but not across them. For this reason it is sensible to present such phenomena relative to Earth's magnetic field. A large variety of magnetic coordinate systems exist, designed for different purposes and regions, ranging from the magnetopause to the ionosphere. In this paper we review the most common magnetic coordinate systems and describe how they are defined, where they are used, and how to convert between them. The definitions are presented based on the spherical harmonic expansion coefficients of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) and, in some of the coordinate systems, the position of the Sun which we show how to calculate from the time and date. The most detailed coordinate systems take the full IGRF into account and define magnetic latitude and longitude such that they are constant along field lines. These coordinate systems, which are useful at ionospheric altitudes, are non-orthogonal. We show how to handle vectors and vector calculus in such coordinates, and discuss how systematic errors may appear if this is not done correctly

Observations of magnetospheric substorms occurring with no apparent solar wind/IMF trigger

An outstanding topic in magnetospheric physics is whether substorms are always externally triggered by disturbances in either the interplanetary magnetic field or solar wind, or whether they can also occur solely as the result of an internal magnetospheric instability. Over the past decade, arguments have been made on both sides of this issue. Horwitz and McPherron have shown examples of substorm onsets which they claimed were not externally triggered. However, as pointed out by Lyons, there are several problems associated with these studies that make their results somewhat inconclusive. In particular, in the McPherron et al. study, fluctuations in the B{sub y} component were not considered as possible triggers. Furthermore, Lyons suggests that the sharp decreases in the AL index during intervals of steady IMF/solar wind, are not substorms at all but rather that they are just enhancements of the convection driven DP2 current system that are often observed to occur during steady magnetospheric convection events. In the present study, we utilize a much more comprehensive dataset (consisting of particle data from the Los Alamos energetic particle detectors at geosynchronous orbit, IMP 8 magnetometer and plasma data, Viking UV auroral imager data, mid-latitude Pi2 pulsation data, ground magnetometer data and ISEE1 magnetic field and energetic particle data) to show as unambiguously as possible that typical substorms can indeed occur in the absence of an identifiable trigger in the solar wind/IMF

Aberrant over-expression of a forkhead family member, FOXO1A, in a brain tumor cell line

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The mammalian FOXO (forkhead box, O subclass) proteins are a family of pleiotropic transcription factors involved in the regulation of a broad range of cellular processes critical for survival. Despite the essential and diverse roles of the FOXO family members in human cells and their involvement in tumor pathogenesis, the regulation of <it>FOXO </it>expression remains poorly understood. We have addressed the mechanisms underlying the high level of expression of the <it>FOXO1A </it>gene in a cell line, PER-453, derived from a primitive neuroectodermal tumor of the central nervous system (CNS-PNET).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The status of the <it>FOXO1A </it>locus in the PER-453 CNS-PNET cell line was investigated by Southern blotting and DNA sequence analysis of the proximal promoter, 5'-UTR, open reading frame and 3'-UTR. FOXO1A expression was assessed by conventional and quantitative RT-PCR, Northern and Western blotting.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Quantitative real-time RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) data indicated that after normalization to <it>ACTB </it>mRNA levels, canonical <it>FOXO1A </it>mRNA expression in the PER-453 cell line was 124-fold higher than the average level of five other CNS-PNET cell lines tested, 24-fold higher than the level in whole fetal brain, and 3.5-fold higher than the level in fetal brain germinal matrix cells. No mutations within the <it>FOXO1A </it>open reading frame or gross rearrangements of the <it>FOXO1A </it>locus were detected. However, a single nucleotide change within the proximal promoter and several nucleotide changes within the 3'-UTR were identified. In addition, two novel <it>FOXO1A </it>transcripts were isolated that differ from the canonical transcript by alternative splicing within the 3'-UTR.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The CNS-PNET cell line, PER-453, expresses <it>FOXO1A </it>at very high levels relative to most normal and cancer cells from a broad range of tissues. The <it>FOXO1A </it>open reading frame is wild type in the PER-453 cell line and the abnormally high <it>FOXO1A </it>mRNA expression is not due to mutations affecting the 5'-UTR or proximal promoter. Over expression of <it>FOXO1A </it>may be the result of PER-453 specific epimutations or imbalances in regulatory factors acting at the promoter and/or 3'-UTR.</p

DMSO and Betaine Greatly Improve Amplification of GC-Rich Constructs in De Novo Synthesis

In Synthetic Biology, de novo synthesis of GC-rich constructs poses a major challenge because of secondary structure formation and mispriming. While there are many web-based tools for codon optimizing difficult regions, no method currently exists that allows for potentially phenotypically important sequence conservation. Therefore, to overcome these limitations in researching GC-rich genes and their non-coding elements, we explored the use of DMSO and betaine in two conventional methods of assembly and amplification. For this study, we compared the polymerase (PCA) and ligase-based (LCR) methods for construction of two GC-rich gene fragments implicated in tumorigenesis, IGF2R and BRAF. Though we found no benefit in employing either DMSO or betaine during the assembly steps, both additives greatly improved target product specificity and yield during PCR amplification. Of the methods tested, LCR assembly proved far superior to PCA, generating a much more stable template to amplify from. We further report that DMSO and betaine are highly compatible with all other reaction components of gene synthesis and do not require any additional protocol modifications. Furthermore, we believe either additive will allow for the production of a wide variety of GC-rich gene constructs without the need for expensive and time-consuming sample extraction and purification prior to downstream application

Development of Space Weather Reasonable Worst-Case Scenarios for the UK National Risk Assessment

Severe space weather was identified as a risk to the UK in 2010 as part of a wider review of natural hazards triggered by the societal disruption caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in April of that year. To support further risk assessment by government officials, and at their request, we developed a set of reasonable worst-casescenarios and first published them as a technical report in 2012(current version published in 2020). Each scenario focused on a space weather environment that could disrupt a particular national infrastructure such as electric power or satellites, thus enabling officials to explore the resilience of that infrastructure against severe space weather through discussions with relevant experts from other parts of government and with the operators of that infrastructure. This approach also encouraged us to focus on the environmental features that are key to generating adverse impacts. In this paper,we outline the scientific evidence that we have used to develop these scenarios,and therefinements made to them as new evidence emerged. We show how these scenarios are also considered as an ensemble so that government officials can prepare for a severe space weather event, during which many or all of the different scenarios will materialise. Finally,we note that this ensemble also needs to include insights into how public behaviour will play out during a severe space weather event and hence the importance of providing robust, evidence-basedinformation on space weather and its adverse impacts