Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World

The Aspen Economic Strategy Group's Annual Policy Volume Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World marks the group's 5th anniversary and is released against a backdrop historic economic and strategic uncertainty. The book's seven chapters, each written by leading experts and edited by AESG Director Melissa S. Kearney and Deputy Director Amy Ganz, provide a deep-dive on long-term economic headwinds confronting the country, including demographic changes—declining fertility and population aging—and what a smaller worker to population ratio means in terms of slower economic growth, reduced revenue, and lower productivity growth. Additional chapters on the US immigration system and US innovation policy highlight potential solutions for countering these trends.  Another chapter explores potential adverse impacts on local labor markets from the green energy transition and highlights policies to avoid repeating painful mistakes of the past, including the response to the decline of the coal industry and rise of globalization and automation. A final chapter highlights lessons learned from the unprecedented federal aid to state and local governments during the COVID-19 pandemic

Photosynthetic and Respiratory Responses of Two Bog Shrub Species to Whole Ecosystem Warming and Elevated CO2 at the Boreal-Temperate Ecotone

Peatlands within the boreal-temperate ecotone contain the majority of terrestrial carbon in this region, and there is concern over the fate of such carbon stores in the face of global environmental changes. The Spruce and Peatland Response Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) facility aims to advance the understanding of how such peatlands may respond to such changes, using a combination of whole ecosystem warming (WEW; +0, 2.25, 4.5, 6.75, and 9◦C) and elevated CO2 (eCO2; +500 ppm) treatments in an intact bog ecosystem. We examined photosynthetic and respiration responses in leaves of two ericaceous shrub species–leatherleaf [Chamaedaphne calyculata (L.) Moench] and bog Labrador tea [Rhododendron groenlandicum (Oeder) Kron & Judd]–to the first year of combined eCO2 and WEW treatments at SPRUCE. We surveyed the leaf N content per area (Narea), net photosynthesis (AST ) and respiration (RD25) at 25◦C and 400 ppm CO2 and net photosynthesis at mean growing conditions (AGR) of newly emerged, mature and overwintered leaves. We also measured leaf non-structural carbohydrate content (NSC) in mature leaves. The effects of WEW and eCO2 varied by season and species, highlighting the need to accommodate such variability in modeling this system. In mature leaves, we did not observe a response to either treatment of AST or RD25 in R. groenlandicum, but we did observe a 50% decrease in AST of C. calyculata with eCO2. In mature leaves under eCO2, neither species had increased AGR and both had increases in NSC, indicating acclimation of photosynthesis to eCO2 may be related to source-sink imbalances of carbohydrates. Thus, productivity gains of shrubs under eCO2 may be lower than previously predicted for this site by models not accounting for such acclimation. In newly emerged leaves, AST increased with WEW in R. groenlandicum, but not C. calyculata. Overwintered leaves exhibited a decrease in RD25 for R. groenlandicum and in AST for C. calyculata with increasing WEW, as well as an increase of AGR with eCO2 in both species. Responses in newly emerged and overwintered leaves may reflect physiological acclimation or phenological changes in response to treatments

Expressions 1985

PRODUCTION STAFFLOUISE AUSTINDANA Z. BEHRENDSENAMBER HEWITTTOSHIA SOUTHRANDY STANDLEYSHELLY WILSONhttps://openspace.dmacc.edu/expressions/1006/thumbnail.jp

A tree-based decision model to support prediction of the severity of asthma exacerbations in children

This paper describes the development of a tree-based decision model to predict the severity of pediatric asthma exacerbations in the emergency department (ED) at 2 h following triage. The model was constructed from retrospective patient data abstracted from the ED charts. The original data was preprocessed to eliminate questionable patient records and to normalize values of age-dependent clinical attributes. The model uses attributes routinely collected in the ED and provides predictions even for incomplete observations. Its performance was verified on independent validating data (split-sample validation) where it demonstrated AUC (area under ROC curve) of 0.83, sensitivity of 84%, specificity of 71% and the Brier score of 0.18. The model is intended to supplement an asthma clinical practice guideline, however, it can be also used as a stand-alone decision tool

Global transpiration data from sap flow measurements : the SAPFLUXNET database

Plant transpiration links physiological responses of vegetation to water supply and demand with hydrological, energy, and carbon budgets at the land-atmosphere interface. However, despite being the main land evaporative flux at the global scale, transpiration and its response to environmental drivers are currently not well constrained by observations. Here we introduce the first global compilation of whole-plant transpiration data from sap flow measurements (SAPFLUXNET, https://sapfluxnet.creaf.cat/, last access: 8 June 2021). We harmonized and quality-controlled individual datasets supplied by contributors worldwide in a semi-automatic data workflow implemented in the R programming language. Datasets include sub-daily time series of sap flow and hydrometeorological drivers for one or more growing seasons, as well as metadata on the stand characteristics, plant attributes, and technical details of the measurements. SAPFLUXNET contains 202 globally distributed datasets with sap flow time series for 2714 plants, mostly trees, of 174 species. SAPFLUXNET has a broad bioclimatic coverage, with woodland/shrubland and temperate forest biomes especially well represented (80 % of the datasets). The measurements cover a wide variety of stand structural characteristics and plant sizes. The datasets encompass the period between 1995 and 2018, with 50 % of the datasets being at least 3 years long. Accompanying radiation and vapour pressure deficit data are available for most of the datasets, while on-site soil water content is available for 56 % of the datasets. Many datasets contain data for species that make up 90 % or more of the total stand basal area, allowing the estimation of stand transpiration in diverse ecological settings. SAPFLUXNET adds to existing plant trait datasets, ecosystem flux networks, and remote sensing products to help increase our understanding of plant water use, plant responses to drought, and ecohydrological processes. SAPFLUXNET version 0.1.5 is freely available from the Zenodo repository (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3971689; Poyatos et al., 2020a). The "sapfluxnetr" R package - designed to access, visualize, and process SAPFLUXNET data - is available from CRAN.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016

The US Program in Ground-Based Gravitational Wave Science: Contribution from the LIGO Laboratory

Recent gravitational-wave observations from the LIGO and Virgo observatories have brought a sense of great excitement to scientists and citizens the world over. Since September 2015,10 binary black hole coalescences and one binary neutron star coalescence have been observed. They have provided remarkable, revolutionary insight into the "gravitational Universe" and have greatly extended the field of multi-messenger astronomy. At present, Advanced LIGO can see binary black hole coalescences out to redshift 0.6 and binary neutron star coalescences to redshift 0.05. This probes only a very small fraction of the volume of the observable Universe. However, current technologies can be extended to construct "3rd Generation" (3G) gravitational-wave observatories that would extend our reach to the very edge of the observable Universe. The event rates over such a large volume would be in the hundreds of thousands per year (i.e. tens per hour). Such 3G detectors would have a 10-fold improvement in strain sensitivity over the current generation of instruments, yielding signal-to-noise ratios of 1000 for events like those already seen. Several concepts are being studied for which engineering studies and reliable cost estimates will be developed in the next 5 years