Cascading failures in networks of heterogeneous node behavior

Variability in the dynamical function of nodes comprising a complex network impacts upon cascading failures that can compromise the network's ability to operate. Node types correspond to sources, sinks or passive conduits of a current ow, applicable to renewable electrical power micro-grids containing a variable number of intermittently operating generators and consumers of power. The resilience to cascading failures of ensembles of synthetic networks with di_erent topology is examined as a function of the edge current carrying capacity and mix of node types, together with exemplar real-world networks. Whilst a network with homogeneous node type can be resilient to failure, one with identical topology but heterogeneous node function can be strongly susceptible to failure. For networks with similar numbers of sources, sinks and passive nodes the mean resilience decreases as networks become more disordered. Nevertheless all network topologies have enhanced regions of resilience, accessible by manipulation of node composition and functionality

Competition, predation, and migration: individual choice patterns of Serengeti migrants captured by hierarchical models

Large-herbivore migrations occur across gradients of food quality or food abundance that are generally determined by underlying geographic patterns in rainfall, elevation, or latitude, in turn causing variation in the degree of interspecific competition and the exposure to predators. However, the role of top-down effects of predation as opposed to the bottom-up effects of competition for resources in shaping migrations is not well understood. We studied 30 GPS radio-collared wildebeest and zebra migrating seasonally in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem to ask how predation and food availability differentially affect the individual movement patterns of these co-migrating species. A hierarchical analysis of movement trajectories (directions and distances) in relation to grass biomass, high-quality food patches, and predation risk show that wildebeest tend to move in response to food quality, with little attention to predation risk. In contrast, individual zebra movements reflect a balance between the risk of predation and the access to high-quality food of sufficient biomass. Our analysis shows how two migratory species move in response to different attributes of the same landscape. Counterintuitively and in contrast to most other animal movement studies, we find that both species move farther each day when resources are locally abundant than when they are scarce. During the wet season when the quality of grazing is at its peak, both wildebeest and zebra move the greatest distances and do not settle in localized areas to graze for extended periods. We propose that this punctuated movement in highquality patches is explained by density dependency, whereby large groups of competing individuals (up to 1.65 million grazers) rapidly deplete the localized grazing opportunities. These findings capture the roles of predation and competition in shaping animal migrations, which are often claimed but rarely measured

A Model for the Analysis of Caries Occurrence in Primary Molar Tooth Surfaces

Recently methods of caries quantification in the primary dentition have moved away from summary ‘whole mouth’ measures at the individual level to methods based on generalised linear modelling (GLM) approaches or survival analysis approaches. However, GLM approaches based on logistic transformation fail to take into account the time-dependent process of tooth/surface survival to caries. There may also be practical difficulties associated with casting parametric survival-based approaches in a complex multilevel hierarchy and the selection of an optimal survival distribution, while non-parametric survival methods are not generally suitable for the assessment of supplementary information recorded on study participants. In the current investigation, a hybrid semi-parametric approach comprising elements of survival-based and GLM methodologies suitable for modelling of caries occurrence within fixed time periods is assessed, using an illustrative multilevel data set of caries occurrence in primary molars from a cohort study, with clustering of data assumed to occur at surface and tooth levels. Inferences of parameter significance were found to be consistent with previous parametric survival-based analyses of the same data set, with gender, socio-economic status, fluoridation status, tooth location, surface type and fluoridation status-surface type interaction significantly associated with caries occurrence. The appropriateness of the hierarchical structure facilitated by the hybrid approach was also confirmed. Hence the hybrid approach is proposed as a more appropriate alternative to primary caries modelling than non-parametric survival methods or other GLM-based models, and as a practical alternative to more rigorous survival-based methods unlikely to be fully accessible to most researchers

Quantifying water requirements of African ungulates through a combination of functional traits

Climate and land use change modify surface water availability in African savannas. Surface water is a key resource for both wildlife and livestock and its spatial and temporal distribution is important for understanding the composition of large herbivore assemblages in savannas. Yet, the extent to which ungulate species differ in their water requirements remains poorly quantified. Here, we infer the water requirements of 48 African ungulates by combining six different functional traits related to physiological adaptations to reduce water loss, namely minimum dung moisture, relative dung pellet size, relative surface area of the distal colon, urine osmolality, relative medullary thickness, and evaporation rate. In addition, we investigated how these differences in water requirements relate to differences in dietary water intake. We observed strong correlations between traits related to water loss through dung, urine and evaporation, suggesting that ungulates minimize water loss through multiple pathways simultaneously, which suggests that each trait can thus be used independently to predict water requirements. Furthermore, we found that browsers and grazers had similar water requirements, but browsers are expected to be less dependent on surface water because they acquire more water through their diet. We conclude that these key functional traits are a useful way to determine differences in water requirements and an important tool for predicting changes in herbivore community assembly resulting from changes in surface water availability

Developing fencing policies in dryland ecosystems

The daily energy requirements of animals are determined by a combination of physical and physiological factors, but food availability may challenge the capacity to meet nutritional needs. Western gorillas (Gorilla gorilla) are an interesting model for investigating this topic because they are folivore-frugivores that adjust their diet and activities to seasonal variation in fruit availability. Observations of one habituated group of western gorillas in Bai-Hokou, Central African Republic (December 2004-December 2005) were used to examine seasonal variation in diet quality and nutritional intake. We tested if during the high fruit season the food consumed by western gorillas was higher in quality (higher in energy, sugar, fat but lower in fibre and antifeedants) than during the low fruit season. Food consumed during the high fruit season was higher in digestible energy, but not any other macronutrients. Second, we investigated whether the gorillas increased their daily intake of carbohydrates, metabolizable energy (KCal/g OM), or other nutrients during the high fruit season. Intake of dry matter, fibers, fat, protein and the majority of minerals and phenols decreased with increased frugivory and there was some indication of seasonal variation in intake of energy (KCal/g OM), tannins, protein/fiber ratio, and iron. Intake of non-structural carbohydrates and sugars was not influenced by fruit availability. Gorillas are probably able to extract large quantities of energy via fermentation since they rely on proteinaceous leaves during the low fruit season. Macronutrients and micronutrients, but not digestible energy, may be limited for them during times of low fruit availability because they are hind-gut fermenters. We discuss the advantages of seasonal frugivores having large dietary breath and flexibility, significant characteristics to consider in the conservation strategies of endangered species

Anthropogenic modifications to fire regimes in the wider Serengeti‐Mara ecosystem

Fire is a key driver in savannah systems and widely used as a land management tool. Intensifying human land uses are leading to rapid changes in the fire regimes, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and composition. We undertake a novel analysis describing spatial patterns in the fire regime of the Serengeti‐Mara ecosystem, document multidecadal temporal changes and investigate the factors underlying these patterns. We used MODIS active fire and burned area products from 2001 to 2014 to identify individual fires; summarizing four characteristics for each detected fire: size, ignition date, time since last fire and radiative power. Using satellite imagery, we estimated the rate of change in the density of livestock bomas as a proxy for livestock density. We used these metrics to model drivers of variation in the four fire characteristics, as well as total number of fires and total area burned. Fires in the Serengeti‐Mara show high spatial variability—with number of fires and ignition date mirroring mean annual precipitation. The short‐term effect of rainfall decreases fire size and intensity but cumulative rainfall over several years leads to increased standing grass biomass and fuel loads, and, therefore, in larger and hotter fires. Our study reveals dramatic changes over time, with a reduction in total number of fires and total area burned, to the point where some areas now experience virtually no fire. We suggest that increasing livestock numbers are driving this decline, presumably by inhibiting fire spread. These temporal patterns are part of a global decline in total area burned, especially in savannahs, and we caution that ecosystem functioning may have been compromised. Land managers and policy formulators need to factor in rapid fire regime modifications to achieve management objectives and maintain the ecological function of savannah ecosystems

Transmission ecology of canine parvovirus in a multi-host, multi-pathogen system

Understanding multi-host pathogen maintenance and transmission dynamics is critical for disease control. However, transmission dynamics remain enigmatic largely because they are difficult to observe directly, particularly in wildlife. Here, we investigate the transmission dynamics of canine parvovirus (CPV) using state-space modelling of 20-years of CPV serology data from domestic dogs and African lions in the Serengeti ecosystem. We show that, although vaccination reduces the probability of infection in dogs, and despite indirect enhancement of population seropositivity as a result of vaccine shedding, the vaccination coverage achieved has been insufficient to prevent CPV from becoming widespread. CPV is maintained by the dog population and has become endemic with ~3.5-year cycles and prevalence reaching ~80%. While the estimated prevalence in lions is lower, peaks of infection consistently follow those in dogs. Dogs exposed to CPV are also more likely to become infected with a second multihost pathogen, canine distemper virus. However, vaccination can weaken this coupling raising questions about the value of monovalent versus polyvalent vaccines against these two pathogens. Our findings highlight the need to consider both pathogen- and host-level community interactions when seeking to understand the dynamics of multi-host pathogens and their implications for conservation, disease surveillance and control programmes

Anthropogenic modifications to fire regimes in the wider Serengeti-Mara ecosystem

Fire is a key driver in savannah systems and widely used as a land management tool. Intensifying human land uses are leading to rapid changes in the fire regimes, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and composition. We undertake a novel analysis describing spatial patterns in the fire regime of the Serengeti‐Mara ecosystem, document multidecadal temporal changes and investigate the factors underlying these patterns. We used MODIS active fire and burned area products from 2001 to 2014 to identify individual fires; summarizing four characteristics for each detected fire: size, ignition date, time since last fire and radiative power. Using satellite imagery, we estimated the rate of change in the density of livestock bomas as a proxy for livestock density. We used these metrics to model drivers of variation in the four fire characteristics, as well as total number of fires and total area burned. Fires in the Serengeti‐Mara show high spatial variability—with number of fires and ignition date mirroring mean annual precipitation. The short‐term effect of rainfall decreases fire size and intensity but cumulative rainfall over several years leads to increased standing grass biomass and fuel loads, and, therefore, in larger and hotter fires. Our study reveals dramatic changes over time, with a reduction in total number of fires and total area burned, to the point where some areas now experience virtually no fire. We suggest that increasing livestock numbers are driving this decline, presumably by inhibiting fire spread. These temporal patterns are part of a global decline in total area burned, especially in savannahs, and we caution that ecosystem functioning may have been compromised. Land managers and policy formulators need to factor in rapid fire regime modifications to achieve management objectives and maintain the ecological function of savannah ecosystems.Natural Environment Research Council, Grant/Award Number: JZG10015; Leverhulme Trust, Grant/Award Number: IN‐2014‐022; Vetenskapsrådet; Sida and Formas, Grant/Award Number: 2016‐06355.http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/gcbhj2019Zoology and Entomolog

Cross-boundary human impacts compromise the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem

Protected areas provide major benefits for humans in the form of ecosystem services, but landscape degradation by human activity at their edges may compromise their ecological functioning. Using multiple lines of evidence from 40 years of research in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem, we find that such edge degradation has effectively “squeezed” wildlife into the core protected area and has altered the ecosystem’s dynamics even within this 40,000-square-kilometer ecosystem. This spatial cascade reduced resilience in the core and was mediated by the movement of grazers, which reduced grass fuel and fires, weakened the capacity of soils to sequester nutrients and carbon, and decreased the responsiveness of primary production to rainfall. Similar effects in other protected ecosystems worldwide may require rethinking of natural resource management outside protected areas