A conceptual approach to the use of Cost Benefit and Multi Criteria Analysis in natural hazard management

International audienceDecision-making for protection measures against natural hazards entails major complexities for final decision makers. The issue in question does not only implicate a variety of criteria that need to be considered but also scarce financial resources make the allocation decision a difficult task. Furthermore, these decisions appear to be multidisciplinary in nature. Stakeholders from experts over politicians and the public are among the affected parties in making and dealing with the consequences of such decisions. In order to capture the complexity that arises when incorporating the varieties of interests as well as impacts protection measures have on the environment, the economy and society, transparent and multidisciplinary decision support techniques are needed. This paper looks at how Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA), a tool already applied to decisions concerning protective measures, and Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA), even though new to the field as such but already successfully practiced in other environmental areas, perform according to the abovementioned criteria. A conceptual overview of the methodologies will be given along with a discussion of the respective strengths and weaknesses. Looking at past applications, this overview gives an analysis about the potential of socio economics in its contribution to natural hazard research

Measurements of PM10 ions and trace gases with the online system MARGA at the research station Melpitz in Germany – A five-year study

An hourly quantification of inorganic water-soluble PM10 ions and corresponding trace gases was performed using the Monitor for AeRosols and Gases in ambient Air (MARGA) at the TROPOS research site in Melpitz, Germany. The data availability amounts to over 80% for the five-year measurement period from 2010 to 2014. Comparisons were performed for the evaluation of the MARGA, resulting in coefficients of determinations (slopes) of 0.91 (0.90) for the measurements against the SO2 gas monitor, 0.84 (0.88), 0.79 (1.39), 0.85 (1.20) for the ACSM NO3 −, SO4 2− and NH4 + measurements, respectively, and 0.85 (0.65), 0.88 (0.68), 0.91 (0.83), 0.86 (0.82) for the filter measurements of Cl−, NO3 −, SO4 2− and NH4 +, respectively. A HONO comparison with a batch denuder shows large scatter (R2 = 0.41). The MARGA HNO3 is underestimated compared to a batch and coated denuder with shorter inlets (slopes of 0.16 and 0.08, respectively). Less NH3 was observed in coated denuders for high ambient concentrations. Long-time measurements show clear daily and seasonal variabilities. Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis indicates the emission area of particulate ions Cl−, NO3 −, SO4 2−, NH4 +, K+ and gaseous SO2 to lie in eastern European countries, predominantly in wintertime. Coarse mode sea salt particles are transported from the North Sea to Melpitz. The particles at Melpitz are nearly neutralised with a mean molar ratio of 0.90 for the five-year study. A slight increase of the neutralization ratio over the last three years indicates a stronger decrease of the anthropogenically emitted NO3 − and SO4 2− compared to NH4 +

Higher Activity of the Inducible Nitric Oxide Synthase Contributes to Very Early Onset Inflammatory Bowel Disease

OBJECTIVES: The NOS2 gene encodes for the inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS), responsible for nitric oxide (NO) production, which contributes to antimicrobial and antipathogenic activities. Higher levels of both iNOS and NO-induced damage have been observed in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients. NOS2 may have a role in a specific subset of IBD patients with severe and/or extensive colitis. Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine the role of NOS2 in such a subset, very early onset IBD (VEO-IBD). METHODS: Seventeen tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the NOS2 gene were successfully genotyped in VEO-IBD patients. Genetic associations were replicated in an independent VEO-IBD cohort. Functional analysis for iNOS activity was performed on the most significantly associated functional variant. RESULTS: The NOS2 rs2297518 SNP was found to be associated in VEO-IBD in two independent cohorts. Upon combined analysis, a coding variant (S608L) showed the strongest association with VEO-IBD (Pcombined=1.13 × 10−6, OR (odds ratio)=3.398 (95% CI (confidence interval) 2.02–5.717)) as well as associations with VEO-Crohn's disease and VEO-ulcerative colitis (UC). This variant also showed an association with UC diagnosed between 11 and 17 years of age but not with adult-onset IBD (>17 years). B-cell lymphoblastoid cell lines genotyped for the risk variant as well as Henle-407 cells transfected with a plasmid construct with the risk variant showed higher NO production. Colonic biopsies of VEO-IBD patients showed higher immunohistochemical staining of nitrotyrosine, indicating more nitrosative stress and tissue damage. CONCLUSIONS: These studies suggest the importance of iNOS in genetic susceptibility to younger IBD presentation due to higher NO production

Legislation of direct-to-consumer genetic testing in Europe: a fragmented regulatory landscape

Despite the increasing availability of direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic testing, it is currently unclear how such services are regulated in Europe, due to the lack of EU or national legislation specifically addressing this issue. In this article, we provide an overview of laws that could potentially impact the regulation of DTC genetic testing in 26 European countries, namely Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Emphasis is placed on provisions relating to medical supervision, genetic counselling and informed consent. Our results indicate that currently there is a wide spectrum of laws regarding genetic testing in Europe. There are countries (e.g. France and Germany) which essentially ban DTC genetic testing, while in others (e.g. Luxembourg and Poland) DTC genetic testing may only be restricted by general laws, usually regarding health care services and patients’ rights

Heavy metal and nitrogen concentrations in mosses are declining across Europe whilst some “hotspots” remain in 2010

In recent decades, naturally growing mosses have been used successfully as biomonitors of atmospheric deposition of heavy metals and nitrogen. Since 1990, the European moss survey has been repeated at five-yearly intervals. In 2010, the lowest concentrations of metals and nitrogen in mosses were generally found in northern Europe, whereas the highest concentrations were observed in (south-)eastern Europe for metals and the central belt for nitrogen. Averaged across Europe, since 1990, the median concentration in mosses has declined the most for lead (77%), followed by vanadium (55%), cadmium (51%), chromium (43%), zinc (34%), nickel (33%), iron (27%), arsenic (21%, since 1995), mercury (14%, since 1995) and copper (11%). Between 2005 and 2010, the decline ranged from 6% for copper to 36% for lead; for nitrogen the decline was 5%. Despite the Europe-wide decline, no changes or increases have been observed between 2005 and 2010 in some (regions of) countries

Permian high-temperature metamorphism in the Western Alps (NW Italy)

During the late Palaeozoic, lithospheric thinning in part of the Alpine realm caused high-temperature low-to-medium pressure metamorphism and partial melting in the lower crust. Permian metamorphism and magmatism has extensively been recorded and dated in the Central, Eastern, and Southern Alps. However, Permian metamorphic ages in the Western Alps so far are constrained by very few and sparsely distributed data. The present study fills this gap. We present U/Pb ages of metamorphic zircon from several Adria-derived continental units now situated in the Western Alps, defining a range between 286 and 266 Ma. Trace element thermometry yields temperatures of 580-890°C from Ti-in-zircon and 630-850°C from Zr-in-rutile for Permian metamorphic rims. These temperature estimates, together with preserved mineral assemblages (garnet-prismatic sillimanite-biotite-plagioclase-quartz-K-feldspar-rutile), define pervasive upper-amphibolite to granulite facies conditions for Permian metamorphism. U/Pb ages from this study are similar to Permian ages reported for the Ivrea Zone in the Southern Alps and Austroalpine units in the Central and Eastern Alps. Regional comparison across the former Adriatic and European margin reveals a complex pattern of ages reported from late Palaeozoic magmatic and metamorphic rocks (and relics thereof): two late Variscan age groups (~330 and ~300 Ma) are followed seamlessly by a broad range of Permian ages (300-250 Ma). The former are associated with late-orogenic collapse; in samples from this study these are weakly represented. Clearly, dominant is the Permian group, which is related to crustal thinning, hinting to a possible initiation of continental rifting along a passive margin

Spatially valid data of atmospheric deposition of heavy metals and nitrogen derived by moss surveys for pollution risk assessments of ecosystems

For analysing element input into ecosystems and associated risks due to atmospheric deposition, element concentrations in moss provide complementary and time-integrated data at high spatial resolution every 5 years since 1990. The paper reviews (1) minimum sample sizes needed for reliable, statistical estimation of mean values at four different spatial scales (European and national level as well as landscape-specific level covering Europe and single countries); (2) trends of heavy metal (HM) and nitrogen (N) concentrations in moss in Europe (1990–2010); (3) correlations between concentrations of HM in moss and soil specimens collected across Norway (1990–2010); and (4) canopy drip-induced site-specific variation of N concentration in moss sampled in seven European countries (1990–2013). While the minimum sample sizes on the European and national level were achieved without exception, for some ecological land classes and elements, the coverage with sampling sites should be improved. The decline in emission and subsequent atmospheric deposition of HM across Europe has resulted in decreasing HM concentrations in moss between 1990 and 2010. In contrast, hardly any changes were observed for N in moss between 2005, when N was included into the survey for the first time, and 2010. In Norway, both, the moss and the soil survey data sets, were correlated, indicating a decrease of HM concentrations in moss and soil. At the site level, the average N deposition inside of forests was almost three times higher than the average N deposition outside of forests

Modelling and mapping heavy metal and nitrogen concentrations in moss in 2010 throughout Europe by applying Random Forests models

Objective: This study explores the statistical relations between the concentration of nine heavy metals(HM) (arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb),vanadium (V), zinc (Zn)), and nitrogen (N) in moss and potential explanatory variables (predictors)which were then used for mapping spatial patterns across Europe. Based on moss specimens collected in 2010 throughout Europe, the statistical relation between a set of potential predictors (such as the atmospheric deposition calculated by use of two chemical transport models (CTM), distance from emission sources, density of different land uses, population density, elevation, precipitation, clay content of soils) and concentrations of HMs and nitrogen (N) in moss (response variables) were evaluated by the use of Random Forests (RF) and Classification and Regression Trees (CART). Four spatial scales were regarded: Europe as a whole, ecological land classes covering Europe, single countries participating in the European Moss Survey (EMS), and moss species at sampling sites. Spatial patterns were estimated by applying a series of RF models on data on potential predictors covering Europe. Statistical values and resulting maps were used to investigate to what extent the models are specific for countries, units of the Ecological Land Classification of Europe (ELCE), and moss species. Results: Land use, atmospheric deposition and distance to technical emission sources mainly influence the element concentration in moss. The explanatory power of calculated RF models varies according to elements measured in moss specimens, country, ecological land class, and moss species. Measured and predicted medians of element concentrations agree fairly well while minima and maxima show considerable differences. The European maps derived from the RF models provide smoothed surfaces of element concentrations (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, N, Ni, Pb, Hg, V, Zn), each explained by a multivariate RF model and verified by CART, and thereby more information than the dot maps depicting the spatial patterns of measured values. Conclusions: RF is an eligible method identifying and ranking boundary conditions of element concentrations in moss and related mapping including the influence of the environmental factors