Quantitative genetic modeling and inference in the presence of nonignorable missing data.

Natural selection is typically exerted at some specific life stages. If natural selection takes place before a trait can be measured, using conventional models can cause wrong inference about population parameters. When the missing data process relates to the trait of interest, a valid inference requires explicit modeling of the missing process. We propose a joint modeling approach, a shared parameter model, to account for nonrandom missing data. It consists of an animal model for the phenotypic data and a logistic model for the missing process, linked by the additive genetic effects. A Bayesian approach is taken and inference is made using integrated nested Laplace approximations. From a simulation study we find that wrongly assuming that missing data are missing at random can result in severely biased estimates of additive genetic variance. Using real data from a wild population of Swiss barn owls Tyto alba, our model indicates that the missing individuals would display large black spots; and we conclude that genes affecting this trait are already under selection before it is expressed. Our model is a tool to correctly estimate the magnitude of both natural selection and additive genetic variance

On estimation and identifiability issues of sex-linked inheritance with a case study of pigmentation in Swiss barn owl (Tyto alba)

Genetic evaluation using animal models or pedigree-based models generally assume only autosomal inheritance. Bayesian animal models provide a flexible framework for genetic evaluation, and we show how the model readily can accommodate situations where the trait of interest is influenced by both autosomal and sex-linked inheritance. This allows for simultaneous calculation of autosomal and sex-chromosomal additive genetic effects. Inferences were performed using integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA), a nonsampling-based Bayesian inference methodology. We provide a detailed description of how to calculate the inverse of the X- or Z-chromosomal additive genetic relationship matrix, needed for inference. The case study of eumelanic spot diameter in a Swiss barn owl (Tyto alba) population shows that this trait is substantially influenced by variation in genes on the Z-chromosome (sigma(2)(z) = 0.2719 and sigma(2)(a) = 0.4405). Further, a simulation study for this study system shows that the animal model accounting for both autosomal and sex-chromosome-linked inheritance is identifiable, that is, the two effects can be distinguished, and provides accurate inference on the variance components

Flexible modelling of spatial variation in agricultural field trials with the R package INLA

The objective of this paper was to fit different established spatial models for analysing agricultural field trials using the open-source R package INLA. Spatial variation is common in field trials, and accounting for it increases the accuracy of estimated genetic effects. However, this is still hindered by the lack of available software implementations. We compare some established spatial models and show possibilities for flexible modelling with respect to field trial design and joint modelling over multiple years and locations. We use a Bayesian framework and for statistical inference the integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) implemented in the R package INLA. The spatial models we use are the well-known independent row and column effects, separable first-order autoregressive ( AR1⊗AR1 ) models and a Gaussian random field (Matérn) model that is approximated via the stochastic partial differential equation approach. The Matérn model can accommodate flexible field trial designs and yields interpretable parameters. We test the models in a simulation study imitating a wheat breeding programme with different levels of spatial variation, with and without genome-wide markers and with combining data over two locations, modelling spatial and genetic effects jointly. The results show comparable predictive performance for both the AR1⊗AR1 and the Matérn models. We also present an example of fitting the models to a real wheat breeding data and simulated tree breeding data with the Nelder wheel design to show the flexibility of the Matérn model and the R package INLA

A new human challenge model for testing heat-stable toxin-based vaccine candidates for enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli diarrhea - dose optimization, clinical outcomes, and CD4+T cell responses

Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) are a common cause of diarrheal illness in young children and travelers. There is yet no licensed broadly protective vaccine against ETEC. One promising vaccine development strategy is to target strains expressing the heat-stable toxin (ST), particularly the human ST (STh), since infections with these strains are among the leading causes of diarrhea in children in low-and-middle income countries. A human challenge model based on an STh-only ETEC strain will be useful to evaluate the protective efficacy of new ST-based vaccine candidates. To develop this model, we experimentally infected 21 healthy adult volunteers with the epidemiologically relevant STh-only ETEC strain TW10722, identified a suitable dose, assessed safety, and characterized clinical outcomes and immune responses caused by the infection. Doses of 1x10(10) colony-forming units (CFU) of TW10722 gave a suitable attack risk of 67% for moderate or severe diarrhea and an overall diarrhea attack risk of 78%. Non-diarrheal symptoms were mostly mild or moderate, and there were no serious adverse events. During the first month after ingesting the challenge strain, we measured significant increases in both activated CD4+ T cells and levels of serum IgG and IgA antibodies targeting coli surface antigen 5 (CS5) and 6 (CS6), as well as the E. coli mucinase YghJ. The CS5-specific CD4+ T cell and antibody responses were still significantly elevated one year after experimental infection. In conclusion, we have developed a safe STh-only ETEC-based human challenge model which can be efficiently used in Phase 2B trials to evaluate the protective efficacy of new ST-based vaccine candidates

Actions of Calcium on Smooth Muscle a

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/72185/1/j.1749-6632.1988.tb33358.x.pd

Directed Evaluation of Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli Autotransporter Proteins as Putative Vaccine Candidates

Diarrheal diseases are responsible for more than 1.5 million deaths annually in developing countries. Enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC) are among the most common bacterial causes of diarrhea, accounting for an estimated 300,000–500,000 deaths each year, mostly in young children. There unfortunately is not yet a vaccine that can offer sustained, broad-based protection against ETEC. While most vaccine development effort has focused on plasmid-encoded finger-like ETEC adhesin structures known as colonization factors, additional effort is needed to identify conserved target antigens. Epidemiologic studies suggest that immune responses to uncharacterized, chromosomally encoded antigens could contribute to protection resulting from repeated infections. Earlier studies of immune responses to ETEC infection had identified a class of surface-expressed molecules known as autotransporters (AT). Therefore, available ETEC genome sequences were examined to identify conserved ETEC autotransporters not shared by the commensal E. coli HS strain, followed by studies of the immune response to these antigens, and tests of their utility as vaccine components. Two chromosomally encoded ATs, identified in ETEC, but not in HS, were found to be immunogenic and protective in an animal model, suggesting that conserved AT molecules contribute to protective immune responses that follow natural ETEC infection and offering new potential targets for vaccines

Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) – a community perspective

This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through on-line media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focussed on process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come

Parameter Estimation For A Deformable Template Model

This report has URL http://www.math.ntnu.no/preprint/statistics/1999/S5-1999.p