'Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!': Effects of Streaks on Confidence and Betting in a Binary Choice Task.

This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bdm.1844/abstract.Human choice under uncertainty is influenced by erroneous beliefs about randomness. In simple binary choice tasks, such as red/black predictions in roulette, long outcome runs (e.g. red, red, red) typically increase the tendency to predict the other outcome (i.e. black), an effect labeled the "gambler's fallacy." In these settings, participants may also attend to streaks in their predictive performance. Winning and losing streaks are thought to affect decision confidence, although prior work indicates conflicting directions. Over three laboratory experiments involving red/black predictions in a sequential roulette task, we sought to identify the effects of outcome runs and winning/losing streaks upon color predictions, decision confidence and betting behavior. Experiments 1 (n = 40) and 3 (n = 40) obtained trial-by-trial confidence ratings, with a win/no win payoff and a no loss/loss payoff, respectively. Experiment 2 (n = 39) obtained a trial-by-trial bet amount on an equivalent scale. In each experiment, the gambler's fallacy was observed on choice behavior after color runs and, in experiment 2, on betting behavior after color runs. Feedback streaks exerted no reliable influence on confidence ratings, in either payoff condition. Betting behavior, on the other hand, increased as a function of losing streaks. The increase in betting on losing streaks is interpreted as a manifestation of loss chasing; these data help clarify the psychological mechanisms underlying loss chasing and caution against the use of betting measures ("post-decision wagering") as a straightforward index of decision confidence. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Wood Dust in Joineries and Furniture Manufacturing: An Exposure Determinant and Intervention Study.

: To assess wood dust exposures and determinants in joineries and furniture manufacturing and to evaluate the efficacy of specific interventions on dust emissions under laboratory conditions. Also, in a subsequent follow-up study in a small sample of joinery workshops, we aimed to develop, implement, and evaluate a cost-effective and practicable intervention to reduce dust exposures. : Personal inhalable dust (n = 201) was measured in 99 workers from 10 joineries and 3 furniture-making factories. To assess exposure determinants, full-shift video exposure monitoring (VEM) was conducted in 19 workers and task-based VEM in 32 workers (in 7 joineries and 3 furniture factories). We assessed the efficacy of vacuum extraction on hand tools and the use of vacuum cleaners instead of sweeping and dry wiping under laboratory conditions. These measures were subsequently implemented in three joinery workshops with 'high' (&gt;4 mg m-3) and one with 'low' (&lt;2 mg m-3) baseline exposures. We also included two control workshops (one 'low' and one 'high' exposure workshop) in which no interventions were implemented. Exposures were measured 4 months prior and 4 months following the intervention. : Average (geometric means) exposures in joinery and furniture making were 2.5 mg m-3 [geometric standard deviations (GSD) 2.5] and 0.6 mg m-3 (GSD 2.3), respectively. In joinery workers cleaning was associated with a 3.0-fold higher (P &lt; 0.001) dust concentration compared to low exposure tasks (e.g. gluing), while the use of hand tools showed 3.0- to 11.0-fold higher (P &lt; 0.001) exposures. In furniture makers, we found a 5.4-fold higher exposure (P &lt; 0.001) with using a table/circular saw. Laboratory efficiency experiments showed a 10-fold decrease in exposure (P &lt; 0.001) when using a vacuum cleaner. Vacuum extraction on hand tools combined with a downdraft table reduced exposures by 42.5% for routing (P &lt; 0.1) and 85.5% for orbital sanding (P &lt; 0.001). Following intervention measures in joineries, a borderline statistically significant (P &lt; 0.10) reduction in exposure of 30% was found in workshops with 'high' baseline exposures, but no reduction was shown in the workshop with 'low' baseline exposures. : Wood dust exposure is high in joinery workers and (to a lesser extent) furniture makers with frequent use of hand tools and cleaning being key drivers of exposure. Vacuum extraction on hand tools and alternative cleaning methods reduced workplace exposures substantially, but may be insufficient to achieve compliance with current occupational exposure limits.<br/

Update to the Vitamin C, Thiamine and Steroids in Sepsis (VICTAS) protocol: statistical analysis plan for a prospective, multicenter, double-blind, adaptive sample size, randomized, placebo-controlled, clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Observational research suggests that combined therapy with Vitamin C, thiamine and hydrocortisone may reduce mortality in patients with septic shock. METHODS AND DESIGN: The Vitamin C, Thiamine and Steroids in Sepsis (VICTAS) trial is a multicenter, double-blind, adaptive sample size, randomized, placebo-controlled trial designed to test the efficacy of combination therapy with vitamin C (1.5 g), thiamine (100 mg), and hydrocortisone (50 mg) given every 6 h for up to 16 doses in patients with respiratory or circulatory dysfunction (or both) resulting from sepsis. The primary outcome is ventilator- and vasopressor-free days with mortality as the key secondary outcome. Recruitment began in August 2018 and is ongoing; 501 participants have been enrolled to date, with a planned maximum sample size of 2000. The Data and Safety Monitoring Board reviewed interim results at N = 200, 300, 400 and 500, and has recommended continuing recruitment. The next interim analysis will occur when N = 1000. This update presents the statistical analysis plan. Specifically, we provide definitions for key treatment and outcome variables, and for intent-to-treat, per-protocol, and safety analysis datasets. We describe the planned descriptive analyses, the main analysis of the primary end point, our approach to secondary and exploratory analyses, and handling of missing data. Our goal is to provide enough detail that our approach could be replicated by an independent study group, thereby enhancing the transparency of the study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03509350. Registered on 26 April 2018

Event-related alpha suppression in response to facial motion

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.While biological motion refers to both face and body movements, little is known about the visual perception of facial motion. We therefore examined alpha wave suppression as a reduction in power is thought to reflect visual activity, in addition to attentional reorienting and memory processes. Nineteen neurologically healthy adults were tested on their ability to discriminate between successive facial motion captures. These animations exhibited both rigid and non-rigid facial motion, as well as speech expressions. The structural and surface appearance of these facial animations did not differ, thus participants decisions were based solely on differences in facial movements. Upright, orientation-inverted and luminance-inverted facial stimuli were compared. At occipital and parieto-occipital regions, upright facial motion evoked a transient increase in alpha which was then followed by a significant reduction. This finding is discussed in terms of neural efficiency, gating mechanisms and neural synchronization. Moreover, there was no difference in the amount of alpha suppression evoked by each facial stimulus at occipital regions, suggesting early visual processing remains unaffected by manipulation paradigms. However, upright facial motion evoked greater suppression at parieto-occipital sites, and did so in the shortest latency. Increased activity within this region may reflect higher attentional reorienting to natural facial motion but also involvement of areas associated with the visual control of body effectors. © 2014 Girges et al

What Is a Group? : Young Children’s Perceptions of Different Types of Groups and Group Entitativity

To date, developmental research on groups has focused mainly on in-group biases and intergroup relations. However, little is known about children’s general understanding of social groups and their perceptions of different forms of group. In this study, 5- to 6-year-old children were asked to evaluate prototypes of four key types of groups: an intimacy group (friends), a task group (people who are collaborating), a social category (people who look alike), and a loose association (people who coincidently meet at a tram stop). In line with previous work with adults, the vast majority of children perceived the intimacy group, task group, and social category, but not the loose association, to possess entitativity, that is, to be a ‘real group.’ In addition, children evaluated group member properties, social relations, and social obligations differently in each type of group, demonstrating that young children are able to distinguish between different types of in-group relations. The origins of the general group typology used by adults thus appear early in development. These findings contribute to our knowledge about children's intuitive understanding of groups and group members' behavior

Divergence in Sex Steroid Hormone Signaling between Sympatric Species of Japanese Threespine Stickleback

Sex steroids mediate the expression of sexually dimorphic or sex-specific traits that are important both for mate choice within species and for behavioral isolation between species. We investigated divergence in sex steroid signaling between two sympatric species of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus): the Japan Sea form and the Pacific Ocean form. These sympatric forms diverge in both male display traits and female mate choice behaviors, which together contribute to asymmetric behavioral isolation in sympatry. Here, we found that plasma levels of testosterone and 17β-estradiol differed between spawning females of the two sympatric forms. Transcript levels of follicle-stimulating hormone-β (FSHβ) gene were also higher in the pituitary gland of spawning Japan Sea females than in the pituitary gland of spawning Pacific Ocean females. By contrast, none of the sex steroids examined were significantly different between nesting males of the two forms. However, combining the plasma sex steroid data with testis transcriptome data suggested that the efficiency of the conversion of testosterone into 11-ketotestosterone has likely diverged between forms. Within forms, plasma testosterone levels in males were significantly correlated with male body size, a trait important for female mate choice in the two sympatric species. These results demonstrate that substantial divergence in sex steroid signaling can occur between incipient sympatric species. We suggest that investigation of the genetic and ecological mechanisms underlying divergence in hormonal signaling between incipient sympatric species will provide a better understanding of the mechanisms of speciation in animals

Molecular Adaptations for Sensing and Securing Prey and Insight into Amniote Genome Diversity from the Garter Snake Genome

Colubridae represents the most phenotypically diverse and speciose family of snakes, yet no well-assembled and annotated genome exists for this lineage. Here, we report and analyze the genome of the garter snake, Thamnophis sirtalis, a colubrid snake that is an important model species for research in evolutionary biology, physiology, genomics, behavior, and the evolution of toxin resistance. Using the garter snake genome, we show how snakes have evolved numerous adaptations for sensing and securing prey, and identify features of snake genome structure that provide insight into the evolution of amniote genomes. Analyses of the garter snake and other squamate reptile genomes highlight shifts in repeat element abundance and expansion within snakes, uncover evidence of genes under positive selection, and provide revised neutral substitution rate estimates for squamates. Our identification of Z and W sex chromosome-specific scaffolds provides evidence for multiple origins of sex chromosome systems in snakes and demonstrates the value of this genome for studying sex chromosome evolution. Analysis of gene duplication and loss in visual and olfactory gene families supports a dim-light ancestral condition in snakes and indicates that olfactory receptor repertoires underwent an expansion early in snake evolution. Additionally, we provide some of the first links between secreted venom proteins, the genes that encode them, and their evolutionary origins in a rear-fanged colubrid snake, together with new genomic insight into the coevolutionary arms race between garter snakes and highly toxic newt prey that led to toxin resistance in garter snakes

Step-wise evolution of complex chemical defenses in millipedes: a phylogenomic approach

With fossil representatives from the Silurian capable of respiring atmospheric oxygen, millipedes are among the oldest terrestrial animals, and likely the first to acquire diverse and complex chemical defenses against predators. Exploring the origin of complex adaptive traits is critical for understanding the evolution of Earth’s biological complexity, and chemical defense evolution serves as an ideal study system. The classic explanation for the evolution of complexity is by gradual increase from simple to complex, passing through intermediate “stepping stone� states. Here we present the first phylogenetic-based study of the evolution of complex chemical defenses in millipedes by generating the largest genomic-based phylogenetic dataset ever assembled for the group. Our phylogenomic results demonstrate that chemical complexity shows a clear pattern of escalation through time. New pathways are added in a stepwise pattern, leading to greater chemical complexity, independently in a number of derived lineages. This complexity gradually increased through time, leading to the advent of three distantly related chemically complex evolutionary lineages, each uniquely characteristic of each of the respective millipede groups

Interleukin-6 Receptor Antagonists in Critically Ill Patients with Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of interleukin-6 receptor antagonists in critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is unclear. METHODS: We evaluated tocilizumab and sarilumab in an ongoing international, multifactorial, adaptive platform trial. Adult patients with Covid-19, within 24 hours after starting organ support in the intensive care unit (ICU), were randomly assigned to receive tocilizumab (8 mg per kilogram of body weight), sarilumab (400 mg), or standard care (control). The primary outcome was respiratory and cardiovascular organ support-free days, on an ordinal scale combining in-hospital death (assigned a value of -1) and days free of organ support to day 21. The trial uses a Bayesian statistical model with predefined criteria for superiority, efficacy, equivalence, or futility. An odds ratio greater than 1 represented improved survival, more organ support-free days, or both. RESULTS: Both tocilizumab and sarilumab met the predefined criteria for efficacy. At that time, 353 patients had been assigned to tocilizumab, 48 to sarilumab, and 402 to control. The median number of organ support-free days was 10 (interquartile range, -1 to 16) in the tocilizumab group, 11 (interquartile range, 0 to 16) in the sarilumab group, and 0 (interquartile range, -1 to 15) in the control group. The median adjusted cumulative odds ratios were 1.64 (95% credible interval, 1.25 to 2.14) for tocilizumab and 1.76 (95% credible interval, 1.17 to 2.91) for sarilumab as compared with control, yielding posterior probabilities of superiority to control of more than 99.9% and of 99.5%, respectively. An analysis of 90-day survival showed improved survival in the pooled interleukin-6 receptor antagonist groups, yielding a hazard ratio for the comparison with the control group of 1.61 (95% credible interval, 1.25 to 2.08) and a posterior probability of superiority of more than 99.9%. All secondary analyses supported efficacy of these interleukin-6 receptor antagonists. CONCLUSIONS: In critically ill patients with Covid-19 receiving organ support in ICUs, treatment with the interleukin-6 receptor antagonists tocilizumab and sarilumab improved outcomes, including survival. (REMAP-CAP ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02735707.)