Mathematical modelling long-term effects of replacing Prevnar7 with Prevnar13 on invasive pneumococcal diseases in England and Wales

England and Wales recently replaced the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) with its 13-valent equivalent (PCV13), partly based on projections from mathematical models of the long-term impact of such a switch compared to ceasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccination altogether. A compartmental deterministic model was used to estimate parameters governing transmission of infection and competition between different groups of pneumococcal serotypes prior to the introduction of PCV13. The best-fitting parameters were used in an individual based model to describe pneumococcal transmission dynamics and effects of various options for the vaccination programme change in England and Wales. A number of scenarios were conducted using (i) different assumptions about the number of invasive pneumococcal disease cases adjusted for the increasing trend in disease incidence prior to PCV7 introduction in England and Wales, and (ii) a range of values representing serotype replacement induced by vaccination of the additional six serotypes in PCV13. Most of the scenarios considered suggest that ceasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine use would cause an increase in invasive pneumococcal disease incidence, while replacing PCV7 with PCV13 would cause an overall decrease. However, the size of this reduction largely depends on the level of competition induced by the additional serotypes in PCV13. The model estimates that over 20 years of PCV13 vaccination, around 5000–62000 IPD cases could be prevented compared to stopping pneumococcal conjugate vaccination altogether. Despite inevitable uncertainty around serotype replacement effects following introduction of PCV13, the model suggests a reduction in overall invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in all cases. Our results provide useful evidence on the benefits of PCV13 to countries replacing or considering replacing PCV7 with PCV13, as well as data that can be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such a switch

Protecting infants against RSV disease: an impact and cost-effectiveness comparison of long-acting monoclonal antibodies and maternal vaccination

Background: Two new products for preventing Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) in young children have been licensed: a single-dose long-acting monoclonal antibody (la-mAB) and a maternal vaccine (MV). To facilitate the selection of new RSV intervention programmes for large-scale implementation, this study provides an assessment to compare the costs of potential programmes with the health benefits accrued. Methods: Using an existing dynamic transmission model, we compared maternal vaccination to la-mAB therapy against RSV in England and Wales by calculating the impact and cost-effectiveness. We calibrated a statistical model to the efficacy trial data to accurately capture their immune waning and estimated the impact of seasonal and year-round programmes for la-mAB and MV programmes. Using these impact estimates, we identified the most cost-effective programme across pricing and delivery cost assumptions. Findings: For infants under six months old in England and Wales, a year-round MV programme with 60% coverage would avert 32% (95% CrI 22–41%) of RSV hospital admissions and a year-round la-mAB programme with 90% coverage would avert 57% (95% CrI 41–69%). The MV programme has additional health benefits for pregnant women, which account for 20% of the population-level health burden averted. A seasonal la-mAB programme could be cost-effective for up to £84 for purchasing and administration (CCPA) and a seasonal MV could be cost-effective for up to £80 CCPA. Interpretation: This modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis has shown that both the long-acting monoclonal antibodies and the maternal vaccine could substantially reduce the burden of RSV disease in the infant population. Our analysis has informed JCVI's recommendations for an RSV immunisation programme to protect newborns and infants. Funding: National Institute for Health Research

Prevalence of Streptococcus pneumoniae in conjunctival flora and association with nasopharyngeal carriage among children in a Vietnamese community.

Conjunctival pneumococcal serotypes among members of a community have not been investigated well. We determined the prevalence and association of Streptococcus pneumoniae in the nasopharynx and conjunctiva among children in a community before pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction. In October 2016, conjunctival and nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from children (< 24 months old) and nasopharyngeal swabs from mothers in Nha Trang, Vietnam. Quantitative lytA PCR and DNA microarray were performed to detect and serotype S. pneumoniae. The association between S. pneumoniae in the nasopharynx and conjunctiva was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression model. Among 698 children, 62 (8.9%, 95% CI 6.9-11.2%) were positive for S. pneumoniae in the conjunctiva. Non-encapsulated S. pneumoniae were most commonly identified, followed by serotypes 6A, 6B, and 14. Nasopharyngeal and conjunctival detection were positively associated (aOR 47.30, 95% CI 24.07-92.97). Low birth-weight, day-care attendance, and recent eye symptoms were independently associated with S. pneumoniae detection in the conjunctiva (aOR 11.14, 95% CI 3.76-32.98, aOR 2.19, 95% CI 1.45-3.31, and aOR 3.59, 95% CI 2.21-5.84, respectively). Serotypes and genotypes in the conjunctiva and nasopharynx matched in 87% of the children. Three mothers' nasopharyngeal pneumococcal samples had matched serotype and genotype with their child's in the conjunctiva and nasopharynx. S. pneumoniae presence in nasopharynx and conjunctiva were strongly associated. The high concordance of serotypes suggests nasopharyngeal carriage may be a source of transmission to the conjunctiva

Long-Term Effects of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on Nasopharyngeal Carriage of S. pneumoniae, S. aureus, H. influenzae and M. catarrhalis

BACKGROUND: Shifts in pneumococcal serotypes following introduction of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) may alter the presence of other bacterial pathogens co-inhabiting the same nasopharyngeal niche. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Nasopharyngeal prevalence rates of S. pneumoniae, S. aureus, H. influenzae and M. catarrhalis were investigated before, 3 and 4.5 years after introduction of PCV-7 in the national immunisation program in children at 11 and 24 months of age, and parents of 24-month-old children (n≈330/group) using conventional culture methods. Despite a virtual disappearance of PCV-7 serotypes over time, similar overall pneumococcal rates were observed in all age groups, except for a significant reduction in the 11-month-old group (adjusted Odds Ratio after 4.5 years 0.48, 95% Confidence Interval 0.34-0.67). Before, 3 and 4.5 years after PCV-7 implementation, prevalence rates of S. aureus were 5%, 9% and 14% at 11 months of age (3.59, 1.90-6.79) and 20%, 32% and 34% in parents (1.96, 1.36-2.83), but remained similar at 24 months of age, respectively. Prevalence rates of H. influenzae were 46%, 65% and 65% at 11 months (2.22, 1.58-3.13), 52%, 73% and 76% at 24 months of age (2.68, 1.88-3.82) and 23%, 30% and 40% in parents (2.26, 1.58-3.33), respectively. No consistent changes in M. catarrhalis carriage rates were observed over time. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In addition to large shifts in pneumococcal serotypes, persistently higher nasopharyngeal prevalence rates of S. aureus and H. influenzae were observed among young children and their parents after PCV-7 implementation. These findings may have implications for disease incidence and antibiotic treatment in the post-PCV era

Evolutionary Pathways of the Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in the UK

The emergence of the influenza (H1N1) 2009 virus provided a unique opportunity to study the evolution of a pandemic virus following its introduction into the human population. Virological and clinical surveillance in the UK were comprehensive during the first and second waves of the pandemic in 2009, with extensive laboratory confirmation of infection allowing a detailed sampling of representative circulating viruses. We sequenced the complete coding region of the haemagglutinin (HA) segment of 685 H1N1 pandemic viruses selected without bias during two waves of pandemic in the UK (April-December 2009). Phylogenetic analysis showed that although temporal accumulation of amino acid changes was observed in the HA sequences, the overall diversity was less than that typically seen for seasonal influenza A H1N1 or H3N2. There was co-circulation of multiple variants as characterised by signature amino acid changes in the HA. A specific substitution (S203T) became predominant both in UK and global isolates. No antigenic drift occurred during 2009 as viruses with greater than four-fold reduction in their haemagglutination inhibition (HI) titre (“low reactors”) were detected in a low proportion (3%) and occurred sporadically. Although some limited antigenic divergence in viruses with four-fold reduction in HI titre might be related to the presence of 203T, additional studies are needed to test this hypothesis

Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England.

Background: Predicting bed occupancy for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requires understanding of length of stay (LoS) in particular bed types. LoS can vary depending on the patient’s “bed pathway” - the sequence of transfers of individual patients between bed types during a hospital stay. In this study, we characterise these pathways, and their impact on predicted hospital bed occupancy. Methods: We obtained data from University College Hospital (UCH) and the ISARIC4C COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) on hospitalised patients with COVID-19 who required care in general ward or critical care (CC) beds to determine possible bed pathways and LoS. We developed a discrete-time model to examine the implications of using either bed pathways or only average LoS by bed type to forecast bed occupancy. We compared model-predicted bed occupancy to publicly available bed occupancy data on COVID-19 in England between March and August 2020. Results: In both the UCH and CO-CIN datasets, 82% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 only received care in general ward beds. We identified four other bed pathways, present in both datasets: “Ward, CC, Ward”, “Ward, CC”, “CC” and “CC, Ward”. Mean LoS varied by bed type, pathway, and dataset, between 1.78 and 13.53 days. For UCH, we found that using bed pathways improved the accuracy of bed occupancy predictions, while only using an average LoS for each bed type underestimated true bed occupancy. However, using the CO-CIN LoS dataset we were not able to replicate past data on bed occupancy in England, suggesting regional LoS heterogeneities. Conclusions: We identified five bed pathways, with substantial variation in LoS by bed type, pathway, and geography. This might be caused by local differences in patient characteristics, clinical care strategies, or resource availability, and suggests that national LoS averages may not be appropriate for local forecasts of bed occupancy for COVID-19. Trial registration: The ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study ISRCTN66726260 was retrospectively registered on 21/04/2020 and designated an Urgent Public Health Research Study by NIHR.</p

Search for new phenomena in high-mass diphoton final states using 37 fb−1 of proton–proton collisions collected at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Searches for new phenomena in high-mass diphoton final states with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC are presented. The analysis is based on pp collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.7 fb−1 at a centre-of-mass energy √s = 13 TeV recorded in 2015 and 2016. Searches are performed for resonances with spin 0, as predicted by theories with an extended Higgs sector, and for resonances with spin 2, using a warped extra-dimension model as a benchmark model, as well as for non-resonant signals, assuming a large extra-dimension scenario. No significant deviation from the Standard Model is observed. Upper limits are placed on the production cross section times branching ratio to two photons as a function of the resonance mass. In addition, lower limits are set on the ultraviolet cutoff scale in the large extra-dimensions model