Cosmological Time in Quantum Supergravity

The version of supergravity formulated by Ogievetsky and Sokatchev is almost identical to the conventional $N=1$ theory, except that the cosmological constant $\Lambda$ appears as a dynamical variable which is constant only by virtue of the field equations. We consider the canonical quantisation of this theory, and show that the wave function evolves with respect to a dynamical variable which can be interpreted as a cosmological time parameter. The square of the modulus of the wave function obeys a set of simple conservation equations and can be interpreted as a probability density functional. The usual problems associated with time in quantum gravity are avoided.Comment: 12 pages, LaTe

Surface modification of mild steel using a combination of laser and electrochemical processes

Traditional methods for achieving hierarchical surface structures include highly specified, deterministic approaches to create features to meet design intention. In this study microstructural alteration was undertaken using laser apparatus and secondary texturing was achieved via succeeding electrochemical processes. Electrochemical jet machining (EJM) was performed on mild steel subjected to laser pre-treatment using power densities of 4167 and 5556 W/cm2 with pulse durations from 0.3 - 1.5 seconds. Results show that in combination, laser pre-treatment and EJM can alter the exposed surface textures and chemistries. Here, machined surface roughness (Sa) was shown to increase from approximately 0.45 µm for untreated surfaces to approximately 18 µm for surfaces subjected to extreme laser pretreatments. After pre-treatments materials were characterised to appraise microstructural changes, shown to be martensite formation, reinforced by complementary simulation data, and significant increases in observable hardness from approximately 261 HV for the asreceived material to over 700 HV after pre-treatment. The greater hardness was retained after EJM. Exposed martensitic lath structures at machined surfaces are shown to be partially responsible for surface roughness increases. The surfaces were explored with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) and Raman spectroscopy demonstrating changes in apparent surface chemistry. This analysis revealed increasing oxide formation at the surface of the pre-treated EJM surface, a further contributory factor to surface roughness increases. This new process chain will be of interest to manufacturers seeking to control surface morphology for applications including micro-injection mould/die manufacture. While demonstrated here for steel similar mechanisms are exploitable in other material systems. A new technique has been demonstrated, resulting from the models and processes presented to couple laser and electrolyte jet processing for complex surface preparation

The Cosmological Probability Density Function for Bianchi Class A Models in Quantum Supergravity

Nicolai's theorem suggests a simple stochastic interpetation for supersymmetric Euclidean quantum theories, without requiring any inner product to be defined on the space of states. In order to apply this idea to supergravity, we first reduce to a one-dimensional theory with local supersymmetry by the imposition of homogeneity conditions. We then make the supersymmetry rigid by imposing gauge conditions, and quantise to obtain the evolution equation for a time-dependent wave function. Owing to the inclusion of a certain boundary term in the classical action, and a careful treatment of the initial conditions, the evolution equation has the form of a Fokker-Planck equation. Of particular interest is the static solution, as this satisfies all the standard quantum constraints. This is naturally interpreted as a cosmological probability density function, and is found to coincide with the square of the magnitude of the conventional wave function for the wormhole state.Comment: 22 pages, Late

Prospects of Detecting Non-thermal Protons in Solar Flares via Lyman Line Spectroscopy: Revisiting the Orrall-Zirker Effect

Solar flares are efficient particle accelerators, with a substantial fraction of the energy released manifesting as non-thermal particles. While the role that non-thermal electrons play in transporting flare energy is well studied, the properties and importance of non-thermal protons is rather less well understood. This is in large part due to the paucity of diagnostics, particularly at the lower-energy (deka-keV) range of non-thermal proton distributions in flares. One means to identify the presence of deka-keV protons is by an effect originally described by \cite{1976ApJ...208..618O}. In the Orrall-Zirker effect, non-thermal protons interact with ambient neutral hydrogen, and via charge exchange produce a population of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) in the chromosphere. These ENAs subsequently produce an extremely redshifted photon in the red wings of hydrogen spectral lines. We revisit predictions of the strength of this effect using modern interaction cross-sections, and numerical models capable of self-consistently simulating the flaring non-equilibrium ionization stratification, and the non-thermal proton distribution (and, crucially, their feedback on each other). We synthesize both the thermal and non-thermal emission from \lya\ and \lyb, the most promising lines that may exhibit a detectable signal. These new predictions are are weaker and more transient than prior estimates, but the effects should be detectable in fortuitous circumstances. We degrade the \lyb\ emission to the resolution of the Spectral Imaging of the Coronal Environment (SPICE) instrument on board Solar Orbiter, demonstrating that though likely difficult, it should be possible to detect the presence of non-thermal protons in flares observed by SPICE.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa

Modelling Eurasian Beaver Foraging Habitat and Dam Suitability, for Predicting the Location and Number of Dams Throughout Catchments in Great Britain

Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) populations are expanding across Europe. Depending on location, beaver dams bring multiple benefits and/or require management. Using nationally available data, we developed: a Beaver Forage Index (BFI), identifying beaver foraging habitat, and a Beaver Dam Capacity (BDC) model, classifying suitability of river reaches for dam construction, to estimate location and number of dams at catchment scales. Models were executed across three catchments, in Great Britain (GB), containing beaver. An area of 6747 km2 was analysed for BFI and 16,739 km of stream for BDC. Field surveys identified 258 km of channel containing beaver activity and 89 dams, providing data to test predictions. Models were evaluated using a categorical binomial Bayesian framework to calculate probability of foraging and dam construction. BFI and BDC models successfully categorised the use of reaches for foraging and damming, with higher scoring reaches being preferred. Highest scoring categories were ca. 31 and 79 times more likely to be used than the lowest for foraging and damming respectively. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression showed that modelled dam capacity was significantly related (p = 0.01) to observed damming and was used to predict numbers of dams that may occur. Estimated densities of dams, averaged across each catchment, ranged from 0.4 to 1.6 dams/km, though local densities may be up to 30 dams/km. These models provide fundamental information describing the distribution of beaver foraging habitat, where dams may be constructed and how many may occur. This supports the development of policy and management concerning the reintroduction and recolonisation of beaver

Young People, Biographical Narratives and the Life Grid: Young People's Accounts of Parental Substance Use

Research into potentially sensitive issues with young people presents numerous methodological and ethical challenges. While recent studies have highlighted the advantages of task-based activities in research with young people, the literature on life history research provides few suggestions as to effective and appropriate research tools for encouraging young people to tell their stories. This paper explores the contribution that may be made to such research by the life grid, a visual tool for mapping important life events against the passage of time and prompting wide-ranging discussion. Critical advantages of the life grid in qualitative research include: its visual element which can help to engage interviewer and interviewee in a process of constructing and reflecting on a concrete life history record; its role in creating a more relaxed research encounter supportive of the respondent’s ‘voice’; and facilitating the discussion of sensitive issues. In addition, the way in which use of the grid anchors such narratives in accounts of everyday life, often revealing interesting tensions, is explored. These points are discussed with reference to an exploratory study of young people’s experience of parental substance use

Length of carotid stenosis predicts peri-procedural stroke or death and restenosis in patients randomized to endovascular treatment or endarterectomy.

BACKGROUND: The anatomy of carotid stenosis may influence the outcome of endovascular treatment or carotid endarterectomy. Whether anatomy favors one treatment over the other in terms of safety or efficacy has not been investigated in randomized trials. METHODS: In 414 patients with mostly symptomatic carotid stenosis randomized to endovascular treatment (angioplasty or stenting; n = 213) or carotid endarterectomy (n = 211) in the Carotid and Vertebral Artery Transluminal Angioplasty Study (CAVATAS), the degree and length of stenosis and plaque surface irregularity were assessed on baseline intraarterial angiography. Outcome measures were stroke or death occurring between randomization and 30 days after treatment, and ipsilateral stroke and restenosis ≥50% during follow-up. RESULTS: Carotid stenosis longer than 0.65 times the common carotid artery diameter was associated with increased risk of peri-procedural stroke or death after both endovascular treatment [odds ratio 2.79 (1.17-6.65), P = 0.02] and carotid endarterectomy [2.43 (1.03-5.73), P = 0.04], and with increased long-term risk of restenosis in endovascular treatment [hazard ratio 1.68 (1.12-2.53), P = 0.01]. The excess in restenosis after endovascular treatment compared with carotid endarterectomy was significantly greater in patients with long stenosis than with short stenosis at baseline (interaction P = 0.003). Results remained significant after multivariate adjustment. No associations were found for degree of stenosis and plaque surface. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing stenosis length is an independent risk factor for peri-procedural stroke or death in endovascular treatment and carotid endarterectomy, without favoring one treatment over the other. However, the excess restenosis rate after endovascular treatment compared with carotid endarterectomy increases with longer stenosis at baseline. Stenosis length merits further investigation in carotid revascularisation trials

Application of non-HDL cholesterol for population-based cardiovascular risk stratification: results from the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment. METHODS: In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol. FINDINGS: Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7-59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0-20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0-1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6-2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0-1·3 to 2·3, 2·0-2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced. INTERPRETATION: Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician-patient communication about primary prevention strategies. FUNDING: EU Framework Programme, UK Medical Research Council, and German Centre for Cardiovascular Research

Invasive Salmonellosis among Children Admitted to a Rural Tanzanian Hospital and a Comparison with Previous Studies

BACKGROUND: The importance of invasive salmonellosis in African children is well recognized but there is inadequate information on these infections. We conducted a fever surveillance study in a Tanzanian rural hospital to estimate the case fraction of invasive salmonellosis among pediatric admissions, examine associations with common co-morbidities and describe its clinical features. We compared our main findings with those from previous studies among children in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From 1 March 2008 to 28 Feb 2009, 1,502 children were enrolled into the study. We collected clinical information and blood for point of care tests, culture, and diagnosis of malaria and HIV. We analyzed the clinical features on admission and outcome by laboratory-confirmed diagnosis. Pathogenic bacteria were isolated from the blood of 156 (10%) children, of which 14 (9%) were S. typhi, 45 (29%) were NTS and 97 (62%) were other pathogenic bacteria. Invasive salmonellosis accounted for 59/156 (38%) bacteremic children. Children with typhoid fever were significantly older and presented with a longer duration of fever. NTS infections were significantly associated with prior antimalarial treatment, malarial complications and with a high risk for death. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Invasive salmonellosis, particularly NTS infection, is an important cause of febrile disease among hospitalized children in our rural Tanzanian setting. Previous studies showed considerable variation in the case fraction of S. typhi and NTS infections. Certain suggestive clinical features (such as older age and long duration of fever for typhoid whereas concomitant malaria, anemia, jaundice and hypoglycemia for NTS infection) may be used to distinguish invasive salmonellosis from other severe febrile illness

Genetic variation in CADM2 as a link between psychological traits and obesity

CADM2 has been associated with a range of behavioural and metabolic traits, including physical activity, risk-taking, educational attainment, alcohol and cannabis use and obesity. Here, we set out to determine whether CADM2 contributes to mechanisms shared between mental and physical health disorders. We assessed genetic variants in the CADM2 locus for association with phenotypes in the UK Biobank, IMPROVE, PROCARDIS and SCARFSHEEP studies, before performing meta-analyses. A wide range of metabolic phenotypes were meta-analysed. Psychological phenotypes analysed in UK Biobank only were major depressive disorder, generalised anxiety disorder, bipolar disorder, neuroticism, mood instability and risk-taking behaviour. In UK Biobank, four, 88 and 172 genetic variants were significantly (p &lt;1 x 10(-5)) associated with neuroticism, mood instability and risk-taking respectively. In meta-analyses of 4 cohorts, we identified 362, 63 and 11 genetic variants significantly (p &lt;1 x 10(-5)) associated with BMI, SBP and CRP respectively. Genetic effects on BMI, CRP and risk-taking were all positively correlated, and were consistently inversely correlated with genetic effects on SBP, mood instability and neuroticism. Conditional analyses suggested an overlap in the signals for physical and psychological traits. Many significant variants had genotype-specific effects on CADM2 expression levels in adult brain and adipose tissues. CADM2 variants influence a wide range of both psychological and metabolic traits, suggesting common biological mechanisms across phenotypes via regulation of CADM2 expression levels in adipose tissue. Functional studies of CADM2 are required to fully understand mechanisms connecting mental and physical health conditions.</p