Making use of the complementarity of hydropower and variable renewable energy in Latin America: A probabilistic analysis

Latin America is one of the regions most vulnerable to the effects of climate variability on hydropower generation. Hydropower is the backbone of the Latin-American power system and a key technology for ensuring low-carbon power generation in the region. Despite its importance, our understanding of the impact and likelihood of seasonal variability and of long-term phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on hydropower is limited. There is an essential need to understand how likely these effects are and to identify measures to counterbalance them. A combination of wind, solar, and hydropower offers the potential to mitigate the impact of climate variability on renewable power generation and thus improve its reliability. Here we present a modeling framework to quantify the potential benefits of such combination. The modeling framework relies on a meteorological reanalysis dataset, large-scale renewable power generation models, and statistic models. We consider the countries with the largest hydropower capacity in the region, namely Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. We examine whether the probability of a production deficit is reduced when all renewable resources are combined compared to a scenario based solely on hydropower, especially during droughts. The approach presented allows for the first time an in-depth analysis of the benefits of a combined wind, solar, and hydropower-based power generation under different geographical conditions in altered ENSO phases. Our results suggest that—depending on the country and the percentile—the hydropower generated during drought ENSO phases could be up to 50% lower than that during neutral phases. The countries most affected are Colombia and Venezuela, while the reduction is somewhat less severe in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. Combining hydropower with variable renewable energy (VRE) offers the potential to reduce the risk of a power deficit during the 10th percentile of the driest months of the year, both in drought and neutral phases. Argentina is the country with the most effective combination of resources to mitigate a power deficit, as each MW of installed VRE generates 0.218 GWh of additional power. It is followed by Brazil and Mexico with 0.185 GWh per MW of VRE and by Venezuela and Colombia with 0.128–0.098 GWh/MW of VRE, respectively. These results can contribute to informing future decisions on capacity planning and regional transmission grids

System analysis of the bio-based economy in Colombia: A bottom-up energy system model and scenario analysis

The transition to a sustainable bio‐based economy is perceived as a valid path towards low‐carbon development for emerging economies that have rich biomass resources. In the case of Colombia, the role of biomass has been tackled through qualitative roadmaps and regional climate policy assessments. However, neither of these approaches has addressed the complexity of the bio‐based economy systematically in the wider context of emission mitigation and energy and chemicals supply. In response to this limitation, we extended a bottom‐up energy system optimization model by adding a comprehensive database of novel bio‐based value chains. We included advanced road and aviation biofuels, (bio)chemicals, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and integrated biorefinery configurations. A scenario analysis was conducted for the period 2015–2050, which reflected uncertainties in the capacity for technological learning, climate policy ambitions, and land availability for energy crops. Our results indicate that biomass can play an important, even if variable, role in supplying 315–760 PJ/y of modern bio‐based products. In pursuit of a deep decarbonization trajectory, the large‐scale mobilization of biomass resources can reduce the cost of the energy system by up to 11 billion $/year, the marginal abatement cost by 62%, and the potential reliance on imports of oil and chemicals in the future. The mitigation potential of BECCS can reach 24–29% of the cumulative avoided emissions between 2015 and 2050. The proposed system analysis framework can provide detailed quantitative information on the role of biomass in low carbon development of emerging economies

Development of a Genetic Risk Score to predict the risk of overweight and obesity in European adolescents from the HELENA study

Obesity is the result of interactions between genes and environmental factors. Since monogenic etiology is only known in some obesity-related genes, a genetic risk score (GRS) could be useful to determine the genetic predisposition to obesity. Therefore, the aim of our study was to build a GRS able to predict genetic predisposition to overweight and obesity in European adolescents. A total of 1069 adolescents (51.3% female), aged 11–19 years participating in the Healthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Adolescence (HELENA) cross-sectional study were genotyped. The sample was divided in non-overweight (non-OW) and overweight/obesity (OW/OB). From 611 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) available, a first screening of 104 SNPs univariately associated with obesity (p < 0.20) was established selecting 21 significant SNPs (p < 0.05) in the multivariate model. Unweighted GRS (uGRS) was calculated by summing the number of risk alleles and weighted GRS (wGRS) by multiplying the risk alleles to each estimated coefficient. The area under curve (AUC) was calculated in uGRS (0.723) and wGRS (0.734) using tenfold internal cross-validation. Both uGRS and wGRS were significantly associated with body mass index (BMI) (p < .001). Both GRSs could potentially be considered as useful genetic tools to evaluate individual’s predisposition to overweight/obesity in European adolescents.European Commission FOOD-CT-2005-007034HELENA projectSpanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness RYC-2010-05957 RYC2011-09011Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Fisiopatología de la Obesidad y Nutrición (CIBERObn)Iberus Talent Pre-doctoral fellowships under the European Union 801586Instituto de Salud Carlos III CB15/0004

Kidney function, endothelial activation and atherosclerosis in black and white Africans with rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether kidney function independently relates to endothelial activation and ultrasound determined carotid atherosclerosis in black and white Africans with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: We calculated the Jelliffe, 5 Cockcroft-Gault equations, Salazar-Corcoran, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) estimated glomerular filtration rate (EGFR) equations in 233 (112 black) RA patients. RESULTS: The CKD-EPI eGFR was 0.1 for comparisons of AUC (SE)) for the other 8 equations. Based on optimal eGFR cutoff values with sensitivities and specificities ranging from 42 to 60% and 70 to 91% respectively, as determined in ROC curve analysis, a low eGFR increased the odds ratio for plaque 2.2 to 4.0 fold. CONCLUSION: Reduced kidney function is independently associated with atherosclerosis and endothelial activation in black and white Africans with RA, respectively. CKD is highly prevalent in black Africans with RA. Apart from the MDRD, eGFR equations are useful in predicting carotid plaque presence, a coronary heart disease equivalent, amongst black African RA patients

Pathway and network analysis of more than 2500 whole cancer genomes

The catalog of cancer driver mutations in protein-coding genes has greatly expanded in the past decade. However, non-coding cancer driver mutations are less well-characterized and only a handful of recurrent non-coding mutations, most notably TERT promoter mutations, have been reported. Here, as part of the ICGC/TCGA Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium, which aggregated whole genome sequencing data from 2658 cancer across 38 tumor types, we perform multi-faceted pathway and network analyses of non-coding mutations across 2583 whole cancer genomes from 27 tumor types compiled by the ICGC/TCGA PCAWG project that was motivated by the success of pathway and network analyses in prioritizing rare mutations in protein-coding genes. While few non-coding genomic elements are recurrently mutated in this cohort, we identify 93 genes harboring non-coding mutations that cluster into several modules of interacting proteins. Among these are promoter mutations associated with reduced mRNA expression in TP53, TLE4, and TCF4. We find that biological processes had variable proportions of coding and non-coding mutations, with chromatin remodeling and proliferation pathways altered primarily by coding mutations, while developmental pathways, including Wnt and Notch, altered by both coding and non-coding mutations. RNA splicing is primarily altered by non-coding mutations in this cohort, and samples containing non-coding mutations in well-known RNA splicing factors exhibit similar gene expression signatures as samples with coding mutations in these genes. These analyses contribute a new repertoire of possible cancer genes and mechanisms that are altered by non-coding mutations and offer insights into additional cancer vulnerabilities that can be investigated for potential therapeutic treatments

Un examen actualizado de la percepción de las barreras para la implementación de la farmacogenómica y la utilidad de los pares fármaco/gen en América Latina y el Caribe

La farmacogenómica (PGx) se considera un campo emergente en los países en desarrollo. La investigación sobre PGx en la región de América Latina y el Caribe (ALC) sigue siendo escasa, con información limitada en algunas poblaciones. Por lo tanto, las extrapolaciones son complicadas, especialmente en poblaciones mixtas. En este trabajo, revisamos y analizamos el conocimiento farmacogenómico entre la comunidad científica y clínica de ALC y examinamos las barreras para la aplicación clínica. Realizamos una búsqueda de publicaciones y ensayos clínicos en este campo en todo el mundo y evaluamos la contribución de ALC. A continuación, realizamos una encuesta regional estructurada que evaluó una lista de 14 barreras potenciales para la aplicación clínica de biomarcadores en función de su importancia. Además, se analizó una lista emparejada de 54 genes/fármacos para determinar una asociación entre los biomarcadores y la respuesta a la medicina genómica. Esta encuesta se comparó con una encuesta anterior realizada en 2014 para evaluar el progreso en la región. Los resultados de la búsqueda indicaron que los países de América Latina y el Caribe han contribuido con el 3,44% del total de publicaciones y el 2,45% de los ensayos clínicos relacionados con PGx en todo el mundo hasta el momento. Un total de 106 profesionales de 17 países respondieron a la encuesta. Se identificaron seis grandes grupos de obstáculos. A pesar de los continuos esfuerzos de la región en la última década, la principal barrera para la implementación de PGx en ALC sigue siendo la misma, la "necesidad de directrices, procesos y protocolos para la aplicación clínica de la farmacogenética/farmacogenómica". Las cuestiones de coste-eficacia se consideran factores críticos en la región. Los puntos relacionados con la reticencia de los clínicos son actualmente menos relevantes. Según los resultados de la encuesta, los pares gen/fármaco mejor clasificados (96%-99%) y percibidos como importantes fueron CYP2D6/tamoxifeno, CYP3A5/tacrolimus, CYP2D6/opioides, DPYD/fluoropirimidinas, TMPT/tiopurinas, CYP2D6/antidepresivos tricíclicos, CYP2C19/antidepresivos tricíclicos, NUDT15/tiopurinas, CYP2B6/efavirenz y CYP2C19/clopidogrel. En conclusión, aunque la contribución global de los países de ALC sigue siendo baja en el campo del PGx, se ha observado una mejora relevante en la región. La percepción de la utilidad de las pruebas PGx en la comunidad biomédica ha cambiado drásticamente, aumentando la concienciación entre los médicos, lo que sugiere un futuro prometedor en las aplicaciones clínicas de PGx en ALC.Pharmacogenomics (PGx) is considered an emergent field in developing countries. Research on PGx in the Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) region remains scarce, with limited information in some populations. Thus, extrapolations are complicated, especially in mixed populations. In this paper, we reviewed and analyzed pharmacogenomic knowledge among the LAC scientific and clinical community and examined barriers to clinical application. We performed a search for publications and clinical trials in the field worldwide and evaluated the contribution of LAC. Next, we conducted a regional structured survey that evaluated a list of 14 potential barriers to the clinical implementation of biomarkers based on their importance. In addition, a paired list of 54 genes/drugs was analyzed to determine an association between biomarkers and response to genomic medicine. This survey was compared to a previous survey performed in 2014 to assess progress in the region. The search results indicated that Latin American and Caribbean countries have contributed 3.44% of the total publications and 2.45% of the PGx-related clinical trials worldwide thus far. A total of 106 professionals from 17 countries answered the survey. Six major groups of barriers were identified. Despite the region’s continuous efforts in the last decade, the primary barrier to PGx implementation in LAC remains the same, the “need for guidelines, processes, and protocols for the clinical application of pharmacogenetics/pharmacogenomics”. Cost-effectiveness issues are considered critical factors in the region. Items related to the reluctance of clinicians are currently less relevant. Based on the survey results, the highest ranked (96%–99%) gene/drug pairs perceived as important were CYP2D6/tamoxifen, CYP3A5/tacrolimus, CYP2D6/opioids, DPYD/fluoropyrimidines, TMPT/thiopurines, CYP2D6/tricyclic antidepressants, CYP2C19/tricyclic antidepressants, NUDT15/thiopurines, CYP2B6/efavirenz, and CYP2C19/clopidogrel. In conclusion, although the global contribution of LAC countries remains low in the PGx field, a relevant improvement has been observed in the region. The perception of the usefulness of PGx tests in biomedical community has drastically changed, raising awareness among physicians, which suggests a promising future in the clinical applications of PGx in LAC

An Updated Examination of the Perception of Barriers for Pharmacogenomics Implementation and the Usefulness of Drug/Gene Pairs in Latin America and the Caribbean

Pharmacogenomics (PGx) is considered an emergent field in developing countries. Research on PGx in the Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) region remains scarce, with limited information in some populations. Thus, extrapolations are complicated, especially in mixed populations. In this paper, we reviewed and analyzed pharmacogenomic knowledge among the LAC scientific and clinical community and examined barriers to clinical application. We performed a search for publications and clinical trials in the field worldwide and evaluated the contribution of LAC. Next, we conducted a regional structured survey that evaluated a list of 14 potential barriers to the clinical implementation of biomarkers based on their importance. In addition, a paired list of 54 genes/drugs was analyzed to determine an association between biomarkers and response to genomic medicine. This survey was compared to a previous survey performed in 2014 to assess progress in the region. The search results indicated that Latin American and Caribbean countries have contributed 3.44% of the total publications and 2.45% of the PGx-related clinical trials worldwide thus far. A total of 106 professionals from 17 countries answered the survey. Six major groups of barriers were identified. Despite the region’s continuous efforts in the last decade, the primary barrier to PGx implementation in LAC remains the same, the “need for guidelines, processes, and protocols for the clinical application of pharmacogenetics/pharmacogenomics”. Cost-effectiveness issues are considered critical factors in the region. Items related to the reluctance of clinicians are currently less relevant. Based on the survey results, the highest ranked (96%–99%) gene/drug pairs perceived as important were CYP2D6/tamoxifen, CYP3A5/tacrolimus, CYP2D6/opioids, DPYD/fluoropyrimidines, TMPT/thiopurines, CYP2D6/tricyclic antidepressants, CYP2C19/tricyclic antidepressants, NUDT15/thiopurines, CYP2B6/efavirenz, and CYP2C19/clopidogrel. In conclusion, although the global contribution of LAC countries remains low in the PGx field, a relevant improvement has been observed in the region. The perception of the usefulness of PGx tests in biomedical community has drastically changed, raising awareness among physicians, which suggests a promising future in the clinical applications of PGx in LAC

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

Background Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide.Methods A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study-a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital.Findings Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.85 [95% CI 2.58-5.75]; p&lt;0.0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63.0% vs 82.7%; OR 0.35 [0.23-0.53]; p&lt;0.0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer.Interpretation Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised

Comparison of seven prognostic tools to identify low-risk pulmonary embolism in patients aged <50 years

publishersversionPeer reviewe

Novel genes and sex differences in COVID-19 severity

[EN] Here, we describe the results of a genome-wide study conducted in 11 939 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) positive cases with an extensive clinical information that were recruited from 34 hospitals across Spain (SCOURGE consortium). In sex-disaggregated genome-wide association studies for COVID-19 hospitalization, genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8) was crossed for variants in 3p21.31 and 21q22.11 loci only among males (P = 1.3 × 10−22 and P = 8.1 × 10−12, respectively), and for variants in 9q21.32 near TLE1 only among females (P = 4.4 × 10−8). In a second phase, results were combined with an independent Spanish cohort (1598 COVID-19 cases and 1068 population controls), revealing in the overall analysis two novel risk loci in 9p13.3 and 19q13.12, with fine-mapping prioritized variants functionally associated with AQP3 (P = 2.7 × 10−8) and ARHGAP33 (P = 1.3 × 10−8), respectively. The meta-analysis of both phases with four European studies stratified by sex from the Host Genetics Initiative (HGI) confirmed the association of the 3p21.31 and 21q22.11 loci predominantly in males and replicated a recently reported variant in 11p13 (ELF5, P = 4.1 × 10−8). Six of the COVID-19 HGI discovered loci were replicated and an HGI-based genetic risk score predicted the severity strata in SCOURGE. We also found more SNP-heritability and larger heritability differences by age (<60 or ≥60 years) among males than among females. Parallel genome-wide screening of inbreeding depression in SCOURGE also showed an effect of homozygosity in COVID-19 hospitalization and severity and this effect was stronger among older males. In summary, new candidate genes for COVID-19 severity and evidence supporting genetic disparities among sexes are provided.S