Valoração económica de património cultural: aplicação da técnica de escolhas discretas ao Alto Douro Vinhateiro Património da Humanidade

Tese de doutoramento em Ciências Económicas (área de conhecimento em Métodos Quantitativos Aplicados à Economia)Esta dissertação insere-se no domínio da valoração económica de amenidades culturais públicas, cujos benefícios de preservação ou salvaguarda não são totalmente reflectidos no mercado. Neste tipo de bens a determinação do valor económico total, conceito que compreende todos os benefícios que decorrem da mudança de estado de uma amenidade pública, é fundamental para captação de financiamento de outros sectores com objectivos sociais alternativos ou entre distintos itens no sector cultural. A prossecução deste objectivo envolve o uso de métodos de valoração de não mercado, nomeadamente de técnicas de preferências expressas. Entre estas, a grande maioria de aplicações na valoração na área da cultura faz uso do método de valoração condicional, sendo a aplicação da técnica de escolhas discretas (ED), um membro da família de choice modeling, menor e mais recente. Não obstante, as vantagens da ED na valoração de problemas complexos ou multi-atributo têm suscitado pesquisa crescente, tanto ao nível metodológico como aplicado. Neste contexto, o presente trabalho de investigação usa a ED para determinar como os visitantes portugueses escolhem entre cenários de salvaguarda hipotéticos da paisagem cultural do Alto Douro Vinhateiro património da humanidade (ADV), constituídos pelos seus atributos relevantes actualmente sujeitos a constrangimentos económico-sociais e dependentes da acção externa de políticas e programas. Sendo uma técnica à procura de consolidação no seio da valoração de não mercado, este trabalho expõe todo o processo de desenvolvimento e implementação da ED, apresentando igualmente evidências na literatura quanto à sensibilidade dos resultados a aspectos metodológicos em concreto. A este respeito conclui-se que é necessária investigação adicional para averiguar em que condições é susceptível existir maior dependência dos resultados da concepção do estudo. Dado o número limitado de aplicações e a existência de uma grande variedade de medidas, objectos de estudo e áreas de conhecimento não é possível ainda fazer qualquer tipo de generalização pela identificação de regularidades empíricas. Entre as fases de desenvolvimento da ED é dada especial atenção ao delineamento experimental, por ser reconhecida como a menos explorada e, por isso, alvo de interesse de investigação crescente onde as contribuições se acumulam, traduzindo-se numa área em progresso. Neste sentido, são apresentados conceitos no domínio da estatística e delineamento experimental, processos e medidas de eficiência. Neste contexto, é revista a prática de delineamento experimental nas aplicações da ED para determinar o valor de itens culturais, concluindo-se pela ausência de implementação dos recentes avanços teóricos no domínio de delineamentos eficientes ou óptimos-D para um modelo de escolha discreta, em particular o modelo logístico condicional. Estratégias de delineamento identificadas na revisão e processos óptimos-D são usadas para a configuração de cenários de salvaguarda hipotéticos da paisagem cultural do ADV, detectando-se a existência de ganhos consideráveis, em termos de eficiência e informação requerida, da adopção de processos óptimos-D, neste caso específico. Para analisar a escolha entre alternativas mutuamente exclusivas, são teoricamente explicitados modelos de escolha discreta logísticos. Na aplicação empírica, os dados são analisados econometricamente inicialmente através do modelo logístico condicional, estendendo-se a análise ao modelo logístico hierárquico e ao modelo logístico de componentes de erro, mantendo ou não a assumpção de indepêndencia entre as escolhas feitas pelo mesmo indivíduo. Em todos os modelos estimados a ordenação de importância dos atributos sugere o mosaico paisagístico como o mais relevante, seguido dos aglomerados e finalmente da vinha em socalcos amparados com muros de xisto. Igualmente transversal a todos os modelos é a existência de heterogeneidade sistemática específica aos atributos. A estimação do modelo de componentes de erro, introduzindo na análise o problema de escolhas repetidas, proporcionou ganhos consideráveis em termos de qualidade de ajuste comparativamente ao melhor dos modelos baseados na assumpção de independência entre escolhas, o modelo logístico condicional. Relativamente ao processo de estimação e comparação dos modelos de escolha discreta, são ainda apresentados problemas específicos concernentes à estimação do modelo logístico de componentes de erro e à apreensão dos efeitos do problema de escolhas repetidas.The problem of attributing value to public cultural amenities, the benefits of whose conservation or preservation are not totally reflected in the market, provides the context of this dissertation. The estimation of the total economic value of the cultural heritage preservation is crucial to justify funding or expenditure decisions in terms of generated benefits to consumers. The non-market valuation methods (in general) and that of stated preference techniques (in particular) provide a consistent way to measure the benefits provided by cultural heritage goods. With respect to the latter type of methodologies, in the non-market valuation of cultural heritage, primacy has been given to the contingent valuation. Nevertheless in context of multi-attribute valuation or complex problems the discrete choice experiments technique (CE) – part of the family of choice modelling techniques – has been recently suggested as an alternative tool to the contingent valuation and has generated a growing body of both theoretical and applied research. In this context, the research project reported on in this dissertation uses CE to determine the way in which Portuguese visitors to the Alto Douro Vineyard World Heritage Site (ADV) respond to hypothetical scenarios that relate to the conservation of the cultural heritage as constituted by the key attributes of this particular space. The dissertation addresses the entire process of conception and application of CE and provides evidence from the existing literature with regard to the sensitivity of results to concrete aspects of the methodology. In this regard, one of the conclusions drawn is that further research is required to specify the conditions in which the particularities of a given study’s conception are likely to have the greatest influence in the results. Due to the limited number of applications and given the existence of a great variety of measures used, objects studied and spheres of knowledge involved, no appreciable degree of generalization is possible. From among the various phases of development of CE, particular emphasis is given to experimental design, which has generated a growing research interest and an increasing body of research. On the basis of a review of experimental design as specifically applied in CE to value cultural items, the dissertation concludes that recent theoretical advances in the field of efficient designs or D-optimal designs considering the conditional logit model have hardly been applied at all. In the specific case analysed in this dissertation, in order to configure hypothetical scenarios relating to the conservation of the cultural landscape of the ADV, we use both the design strategies identified in the literature review as commonly applied to value cultural items, as well as D-optimal processes. The D-optimal designs proved to be advantageous, providing considerable gains both in terms of efficiency and in the information required. In order to analyse choices among a finite set of mutually exclusive alternatives, logit discrete choice models were employed. In the empirical application, we begin by introducing the conditional logit model and then we introduce less restrictive models: the nested logit model and the error components logit model in which the assumption that individual choices are independent is first employed, then dropped. In all the models, the ranking of the importance of attributes suggests that the landscape mosaic of the ADV is the most important, followed by agglomerations, and by vineyards terraced with schist walls, respectively. Furthermore all the models provide evidence of systematic heterogeneity specific to the attributes. The error components logit model (panel) provided considerable gains in term of quality of fit compared to the best of the models (the conditional logit model) in which choices were assumed independent. This dissertation addresses issues related to the repeated choices and to the empirical identification problems in the error components logit model.Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) através da Bolsa de Doutoramento com a referência SFRH/BD/39814/200

Farming systems and global threats: problems and proposals northern Portugal cases

In a context of growing global threats, from climate change, the depletion and degradation of natural resources, to the recent global economic crisis, consequences of short and long term are being witnessed, which undermine the agriculture sustainability. The systems vulnerability, their inability to resilience and the need for innovation is observed, emphasizing also the most capable systems (more sustainable), offering new opportunities and encouraging more environmentally friendly practices. This work takes as starting point the evolution of economic, environmental and social parameters in farms, in recent years, in order to try to identify the difficulties and the solutions capable of sustaining agriculture in the context of multiple hazards at the farm level. The main methodology focuses on inquiries to the responsible agents for developing the main agriculture activities held in Trás-os-Montes, including farmers and their associations. The results confirm the dependence of production factors outside the farm, the limited availability and the high cost of manpower, the weakness of marketing channels and the poor organization of the sector as the main problems. Effective responses to these situations are the opportunities of the activities under study: (a) establishment of an organized marketing circuit, (b) strengthening of mutual help between farms, (c) collective use of inputs, (d) use of environmentally friendly production practices, (e) self- use of products produced on the farm, strengthening their autonomy. This work proposes the society valuation for different levels of agriculture intensity, through discrete choices methodology, to identify the real importance that society attributes to the agrarian activity

A hedonic analysis of the determinants of portuguese wine prices

After 23 years, the APDR’s Annual Congress returns to the University of Beira Interior, for positioning intellectual capital and regional development as a key theme for public policies and the agenda of the collaborative community of politicians, entrepreneurs, researchers and citizens interested in promoting endogenous growth, combined with the institutions, systems and new functional and integrative type designs, for promoting symbiosis among economic, social and political agents, in the joint task of (re) designing a new competitive space, at the regional level. In this context, the central theme chosen is of major importance, since it is urgent to expand the ongoing debate on the importance of identifying, monitoring and managing the different components of regional-based intellectual capital, in order to stimulate a structural change in the scope of innovation and development regimes, funded on endogenous growth factors. The 24th APDR Congress aims to address different questions, namely: What are the regional development models applicable in peripheral and low population density economies? How can intellectual capital promote regional development? Are higher education institutions a vehicle that promotes quality of life and innovation at the level of cities? Can services contribute to sustainable regions? How to plan regional space from a perspective of entrepreneurial and innovative ecosystems? How to finance regional planning and development? What transport networks should the trans-European regions have? What should be the new productive specializations in the regions? Can sport be a motor for regional development

Characterisation of microbial attack on archaeological bone

As part of an EU funded project to investigate the factors influencing bone preservation in the archaeological record, more than 250 bones from 41 archaeological sites in five countries spanning four climatic regions were studied for diagenetic alteration. Sites were selected to cover a range of environmental conditions and archaeological contexts. Microscopic and physical (mercury intrusion porosimetry) analyses of these bones revealed that the majority (68%) had suffered microbial attack. Furthermore, significant differences were found between animal and human bone in both the state of preservation and the type of microbial attack present. These differences in preservation might result from differences in early taphonomy of the bones. © 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

Global variation in postoperative mortality and complications after cancer surgery: a multicentre, prospective cohort study in 82 countries

© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 licenseBackground: 80% of individuals with cancer will require a surgical procedure, yet little comparative data exist on early outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared postoperative outcomes in breast, colorectal, and gastric cancer surgery in hospitals worldwide, focusing on the effect of disease stage and complications on postoperative mortality. Methods: This was a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients undergoing surgery for primary breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer requiring a skin incision done under general or neuraxial anaesthesia. The primary outcome was death or major complication within 30 days of surgery. Multilevel logistic regression determined relationships within three-level nested models of patients within hospitals and countries. Hospital-level infrastructure effects were explored with three-way mediation analyses. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03471494. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and Jan 31, 2019, we enrolled 15 958 patients from 428 hospitals in 82 countries (high income 9106 patients, 31 countries; upper-middle income 2721 patients, 23 countries; or lower-middle income 4131 patients, 28 countries). Patients in LMICs presented with more advanced disease compared with patients in high-income countries. 30-day mortality was higher for gastric cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (adjusted odds ratio 3·72, 95% CI 1·70–8·16) and for colorectal cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (4·59, 2·39–8·80) and upper-middle-income countries (2·06, 1·11–3·83). No difference in 30-day mortality was seen in breast cancer. The proportion of patients who died after a major complication was greatest in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (6·15, 3·26–11·59) and upper-middle-income countries (3·89, 2·08–7·29). Postoperative death after complications was partly explained by patient factors (60%) and partly by hospital or country (40%). The absence of consistently available postoperative care facilities was associated with seven to 10 more deaths per 100 major complications in LMICs. Cancer stage alone explained little of the early variation in mortality or postoperative complications. Interpretation: Higher levels of mortality after cancer surgery in LMICs was not fully explained by later presentation of disease. The capacity to rescue patients from surgical complications is a tangible opportunity for meaningful intervention. Early death after cancer surgery might be reduced by policies focusing on strengthening perioperative care systems to detect and intervene in common complications. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licenseBackground: Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide. Methods: A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study—a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3·85 [95% CI 2·58–5·75]; p<0·0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63·0% vs 82·7%; OR 0·35 [0·23–0·53]; p<0·0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer. Interpretation: Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research