Complex population dynamics as a competition between multiple time-scale phenomena

The role of the selection pressure and mutation amplitude on the behavior of a single-species population evolving on a two-dimensional lattice, in a periodically changing environment, is studied both analytically and numerically. The mean-field level of description allows to highlight the delicate interplay between the different time-scale processes in the resulting complex dynamics of the system. We clarify the influence of the amplitude and period of the environmental changes on the critical value of the selection pressure corresponding to a phase-transition "extinct-alive" of the population. However, the intrinsic stochasticity and the dynamically-built in correlations among the individuals, as well as the role of the mutation-induced variety in population's evolution are not appropriately accounted for. A more refined level of description, which is an individual-based one, has to be considered. The inherent fluctuations do not destroy the phase transition "extinct-alive", and the mutation amplitude is strongly influencing the value of the critical selection pressure. The phase diagram in the plane of the population's parameters -- selection and mutation is discussed as a function of the environmental variation characteristics. The differences between a smooth variation of the environment and an abrupt, catastrophic change are also addressesd.Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Sexual selection protects against extinction

Reproduction through sex carries substantial costs, mainly because only half of sexual adults produce offspring. It has been theorised that these costs could be countered if sex allows sexual selection to clear the universal fitness constraint of mutation load. Under sexual selection, competition between (usually) males, and mate choice by (usually) females create important intraspecific filters for reproductive success, so that only a subset of males gains paternity. If reproductive success under sexual selection is dependent on individual condition, which depends on mutation load, then sexually selected filtering through ‘genic capture’ could offset the costs of sex because it provides genetic benefits to populations. Here, we test this theory experimentally by comparing whether populations with histories of strong versus weak sexual selection purge mutation load and resist extinction differently. After evolving replicate populations of the flour beetle Tribolium castaneum for ~7 years under conditions that differed solely in the strengths of sexual selection, we revealed mutation load using inbreeding. Lineages from populations that had previously experienced strong sexual selection were resilient to extinction and maintained fitness under inbreeding, with some families continuing to survive after 20 generations of sib × sib mating. By contrast, lineages derived from populations that experienced weak or non-existent sexual selection showed rapid fitness declines under inbreeding, and all were extinct after generation 10. Multiple mutations across the genome with individually small effects can be difficult to clear, yet sum to a significant fitness load; our findings reveal that sexual selection reduces this load, improving population viability in the face of genetic stress

Credibility and adjustment: gold standards versus currency boards

It is often maintained that currency boards (CBs) and gold standards (GSs) are alike in that they are stringent monetary rules, the two basic features of which are high credibility of monetary authorities and the existence of automatic adjustment (non discretionary) mechanism. This article includes a comparative analysis of these two types of regimes both from the perspective of the sources and mechanisms of generating confidence and credibility, and the elements of operation of the automatic adjustment mechanism. Confidence under the GS is endogenously driven, whereas it is exogenously determined under the CB. CB is a much more asymmetric regime than GS (the adjustment is much to the detriment of peripheral countries) although asymmetry is a typical feature of any monetary regime. The lack of credibility is typical for peripheral countries and cannot be overcome completely even by “hard” monetary regimes.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40078/3/wp692.pd

Integrating genetic analysis of mixed populations with a spatially explicit population dynamics model

1. Inferring the dynamics of populations in time and space is a central challenge in ecology. Intra-specific structure (for example genetically distinct sub-populations or meta-populations) may require methods that can jointly infer the dynamics of multiple populations. This is of particular importance for harvested species, for which management must balance utilization of productive populations with protection of weak ones. 2. Here we present a novel method for simultaneous learning about the spatio-temporal dynamics of multiple populations that combines genetic data with prior information about abundance and movement, akin to an integrated population modelling approach. We apply the Bayesian genetic mixed stock analysis to 17 wild and 10 hatchery-reared Baltic salmon (S. salar) stocks, quantifying uncertainty in stock composition in time and space, and in population dynamics parameters such as migration timing and speed. 3. The genetic data were informative about stock-specific movement patterns, updating priors for migration path, timing and speed. Use of a population dynamics model allowed robust interpolation of expected catch composition at areas and times with no genetic observations. Our results indicate that the commonly used "equal prior probabilities" assumption may not be appropriate for all mixed stock analyses: incorporation of prior information about stock abundance and movement resulted in more plausible and precise estimates of mixture compositions in time and space. 4. The model we present here forms the basis for optimizing the spatial and temporal allocation of harvest to support the management of mixed populations of migratory species.Peer reviewe

Opportunities and challenges for data physicalization

Physical representations of data have existed for thousands of years. Yet it is now that advances in digital fabrication, actuated tangible interfaces, and shape-changing displays are spurring an emerging area of research that we call Data Physicalization. It aims to help people explore, understand, and communicate data using computer-supported physical data representations. We call these representations physicalizations, analogously to visualizations -- their purely visual counterpart. In this article, we go beyond the focused research questions addressed so far by delineating the research area, synthesizing its open challenges and laying out a research agenda

Performance of LED-Based Fluorescence Microscopy to Diagnose Tuberculosis in a Peripheral Health Centre in Nairobi.

Sputum microscopy is the only tuberculosis (TB) diagnostic available at peripheral levels of care in resource limited countries. Its sensitivity is low, particularly in high HIV prevalence settings. Fluorescence microscopy (FM) can improve performance of microscopy and with the new light emitting diode (LED) technologies could be appropriate for peripheral settings. The study aimed to compare the performance of LED-FM versus Ziehl-Neelsen (ZN) microscopy and to assess feasibility of LED-FM at a low level of care in a high HIV prevalence country

"Pathogen Eradication" and "Emerging Pathogens": Difficult Definitions in Cystic Fibrosis.

Infection is a common complication of cystic fibrosis (CF) airway disease. Current treatment approaches include early intervention with the intent to eradicate pathogens in the hope of delaying the development of chronic infection and the chronic use of aerosolized antibiotics to suppress infection. The use of molecules that help restore CFTR (cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator) function, modulate pulmonary inflammation, or improve pulmonary clearance may also influence the microbial communities in the airways. As the pipeline of these new entities continues to expand, it is important to define when key pathogens are eradicated from the lungs of CF patients and, equally important, when new pathogens might emerge as a result of these novel therapies

Punctuated equilibria and 1/f noise in a biological coevolution model with individual-based dynamics

We present a study by linear stability analysis and large-scale Monte Carlo simulations of a simple model of biological coevolution. Selection is provided through a reproduction probability that contains quenched, random interspecies interactions, while genetic variation is provided through a low mutation rate. Both selection and mutation act on individual organisms. Consistent with some current theories of macroevolutionary dynamics, the model displays intermittent, statistically self-similar behavior with punctuated equilibria. The probability density for the lifetimes of ecological communities is well approximated by a power law with exponent near -2, and the corresponding power spectral densities show 1/f noise (flicker noise) over several decades. The long-lived communities (quasi-steady states) consist of a relatively small number of mutualistically interacting species, and they are surrounded by a ``protection zone'' of closely related genotypes that have a very low probability of invading the resident community. The extent of the protection zone affects the stability of the community in a way analogous to the height of the free-energy barrier surrounding a metastable state in a physical system. Measures of biological diversity are on average stationary with no discernible trends, even over our very long simulation runs of approximately 3.4x10^7 generations.Comment: 20 pages RevTex. Minor revisions consistent with published versio

Abnormal expression of p27kip1 protein in levator ani muscle of aging women with pelvic floor disorders – a relationship to the cellular differentiation and degeneration

BACKGROUND: Pelvic floor disorders affect almost 50% of aging women. An important role in the pelvic floor support belongs to the levator ani muscle. The p27/kip1 (p27) protein, multifunctional cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor, shows changing expression in differentiating skeletal muscle cells during development, and relatively high levels of p27 RNA were detected in the normal human skeletal muscles. METHODS: Biopsy samples of levator ani muscle were obtained from 22 symptomatic patients with stress urinary incontinence, pelvic organ prolapse, and overlaps (age range 38–74), and nine asymptomatic women (age 31–49). Cryostat sections were investigated for p27 protein expression and type I (slow twitch) and type II (fast twitch) fibers. RESULTS: All fibers exhibited strong plasma membrane (and nuclear) p27 protein expression. cytoplasmic p27 expression was virtually absent in asymptomatic women. In perimenopausal symptomatic patients (ages 38–55), muscle fibers showed hypertrophy and moderate cytoplasmic p27 staining accompanied by diminution of type II fibers. Older symptomatic patients (ages 57–74) showed cytoplasmic p27 overexpression accompanied by shrinking, cytoplasmic vacuolization and fragmentation of muscle cells. The plasma membrane and cytoplasmic p27 expression was not unique to the muscle cells. Under certain circumstances, it was also detected in other cell types (epithelium of ectocervix and luteal cells). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report on the unusual (plasma membrane and cytoplasmic) expression of p27 protein in normal and abnormal human striated muscle cells in vivo. Our data indicate that pelvic floor disorders are in perimenopausal patients associated with an appearance of moderate cytoplasmic p27 expression, accompanying hypertrophy and transition of type II into type I fibers. The patients in advanced postmenopause show shrinking and fragmentation of muscle fibers associated with strong cytoplasmic p27 expression