Flash sourcing, or rapid detection and characterization of earthquake effects through website traffic analysis

This study presents the latest developments of an approach called ‘flash sourcing’, which provides information on the effects of an earthquake within minutes of its occurrence. Information is derived from an analysis of the website traffic surges of the European–Mediterranean Seismological Centre website after felt earthquakes. These surges are caused by eyewitnesses to a felt earthquake, who are the first who are informed of, and hence the first concerned by, an earthquake occurrence. Flash sourcing maps the felt area, and at least in some circumstances, the regions affected by severe damage or network disruption. We illustrate how the flash-sourced information improves and speeds up the delivery of public earthquake information, and beyond seismology, we consider what it can teach us about public responses when experiencing an earthquake. Future developments should improve the description of the earthquake effects and potentially contribute to the improvement of the efficiency of earthquake responses by filling the information gap after the occurrence of an earthquake

Thumbnail‐Based Questionnaires for the Rapid and Efficient Collection of Macroseismic Data from Global Earthquakes

The collection of earthquake testimonies (i.e., qualitative descriptions of felt shaking) is essential for macroseismic studies (i.e., studies gathering information on how strongly an earthquake was felt in different places), and when done rapidly and systematically, improves situational awareness and in turn can contribute to efficient emergency response. In this study, we present advances made in the collection of testimonies following earthquakes around the world using a thumbnail‐based questionnaire implemented on the European‐Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) smartphone app and its website compatible for mobile devices. In both instances, the questionnaire consists of a selection of thumbnails, each representing an intensity level of the European Macroseismic Scale 1998. We find that testimonies are collected faster, and in larger numbers, by way of thumbnail‐based questionnaires than by more traditional online questionnaires. Responses were received from all seismically active regions of our planet, suggesting that thumbnails overcome language barriers. We also observed that the app is not sufficient on its own, because the websites are the main source of testimonies when an earthquake strikes a region for the first time in a while; it is only for subsequent shocks that the app is widely used. Notably though, the speed of the collection of testimonies increases significantly when the app is used. We find that automated EMSC intensities as assigned by user‐specified thumbnails are, on average, well correlated with “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) responses and with the three independently and manually derived macroseismic datasets, but there is a tendency for EMSC to be biased low with respect to DYFI at moderate and large intensities. We address this by proposing a simple adjustment that will be verified in future earthquakes.NRF (Natl Research Foundation, S’pore)MOE (Min. of Education, S’pore)Published versio

A decade of seismicity in metropolitan France (2010–2019): the CEA/LDG methodologies and observations

We summarize ten years of the French seismicity recorded by the Geophysical and Detection Laboratory (LDG) of the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) network from 2010 to 2019. During this period, 25 265 natural earthquakes were detected by the LDG and located within metropolitan France and its immediate vicinity. This seismicity contributes to more than 47% of the natural earthquakes instrumentally recorded since 1962 (mainly due to the improvement of network capacity), and includes about 28% of the most significant earthquakes with a magnitude ML ≥ 4.0. Recent seismic events therefore significantly expand the available national catalogues. The spatial distribution of 2010–2019 earthquakes is broadly similar to the previously recorded instrumental pattern of seismicity, with most of the seismic activity concentrated in the French Alps, the Pyrenees, Brittany, the upper Rhine Graben and the Central Massif. A large part of the seismic activity is related to individual events. The largest earthquakes of the last ten years include the November 11, 2019 Le Teil earthquake with ML 5.4 and epicentral intensity VII–VIII, which occurred in the Rhone valley; the April 28, 2016 La Rochelle earthquake with ML 5.1 and epicentral intensity V, which occurred at the southernmost extremity of the Armorican Massif in the vicinity of the Oléron island; and the April 7, 2014 Barcelonnette earthquake with ML 5.1 and epicentral intensity V–VI, which occurred in the Ubaye valley in the Alps. In 2019, two other moderate earthquakes of ML 5.1 and ML 4.9 stroke the western part of France, in Charente-Maritime and Maine-et-Loire departments, respectively. The recent moderate earthquake occurrences and the large number of small earthquakes recorded give both the potential to revise some regional historical events and to determine more robust frequency-magnitude distributions, which are critical for seismic hazard assessment but complex due to low seismicity rates in France. The LDG seismic network installed since the early 1960s also allows a better characterization of the temporal structure of seismicity, partly diffused and in the form of mainshock-aftershocks sequences or transient swarms. These aspects are important in order to lower the uncertainties associated to seismogenic sources and improve the models in seismic hazard assessment for metropolitan France

The Transversal Seismicity Action RESIF: A Tool to Improve the Distribution of the French Seismicity Products

International audienceAbstract In recent years, the French seismological, geodetic, and gravimetric community has been structured within Réseau Sismologique et géodésique Français (RESIF) (French seismological and geodetic network). In addition to instrumental developments, RESIF has structured the work on French seismicity (metropolitan and overseas) within the RESIF transverse seismicity action (ATS). The purpose of this article is to present the ATS and the way it is structured to propose to the community different products: seismicity bulletin and catalog, historical and instrumental macroseismicity data, and ShakeMaps. The places where these products can be found are indicated, as well as the way they are realized and the improvements in progress for a better realization and availability. The link with European plate observing system is also underlined

L'action transversale sismicité RESIF : un outil pour améliorer la diffusion des produits de la sismicité française

In recent years, the French seismological, geodetic and gravimetric community has been structured within RESIF (French seismological and geodetic network). In addition to instrumental developments, RESIF has structured the work on French seismicity (metropolitan and overseas) within the RESIF transverse seismicity action (ATS). The purpose of this article is to present the ATS and the way it is structured to propose to the community different products: seismicity bulletin and catalogue, historical and instrumental macroseismicity data, shakemaps. The places where these products can be found are indicated, as well as the way they are realized and the improvements in progress for a better realization and availability. The link with EPOS (European plate observing system) is also underlined.Ces dernières années, la communauté sismologique, géodésique et gravimétrique française s'est structurée au sein de RESIF (Réseau sismologique et géodésique français). Outre les développements instrumentaux, RESIF a structuré les travaux sur la sismicité française (métropole et outre-mer) au sein de l'Action transverse sismicité (ATS) de RESIF. L'objet de cet article est de présenter l'ATS et la manière dont elle est structurée pour proposer à la communauté différents produits : bulletin et catalogue de sismicité, données historiques et instrumentales de macrosismicité, shakemaps. Les endroits où ces produits peuvent être trouvés sont indiqués, ainsi que la façon dont ils sont réalisés et les améliorations en cours pour une meilleure réalisation et disponibilité. Le lien avec EPOS (European plate observing system) est également souligné

Characteristics and possible origins of the seismicity in northwestern France

International audienceThe macroseismic and instrumental observations accumulated by the Bureau Central Sismologique Français and other national agencies over the last 100 years show that the northwestern part of metropolitan France is affected by an apparently diffuse and moderate intraplate seismicity. Far from any plate boundary, well-documented inherited structures, such as the Armorican shear zone network, the Sillon Houiller, and the normal faults related to the Atlantic ocean margin, likely exert significant control on the regional seismicity pattern. However, in the absence of a clearly measurable strain field, processes other than far-field tectonic stress loading such as erosion, gravitational potential energy, and/or hydraulic loadings can co-exist, but their respective influence on the current seismicity is debated and remains to be fully addressed. Reliable detection/location of low-to-moderate magnitude events is one of the most important challenges in the near future to better understand the processes that control this intraplate seismicity. As shown here for a limited region, this issue can be achieved positively, thanks to the new Résif-Epos network, in conjunction with sophisticated algorithms for both earthquakes’ detection and discrimination

Severity of COVID-19 and survival in patients with rheumatic and inflammatory diseases: data from the French RMD COVID-19 cohort of 694 patients

International audienceObjectives: There is little known about the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on patients with inflammatory rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (iRMD). We examined epidemiological characteristics associated with severe disease, then with death. We also compared mortality between patients hospitalised for COVID-19 with and without iRMD.Methods: Individuals with suspected iRMD-COVID-19 were included in this French cohort. Logistic regression models adjusted for age and sex were used to estimate adjusted ORs and 95% CIs of severe COVID-19. The most significant clinically relevant factors were analysed by multivariable penalised logistic regression models, using a forward selection method. The death rate of hospitalised patients with iRMD-COVID-19 (moderate-severe) was compared with a subset of patients with non-iRMD-COVID-19 from a French hospital matched for age, sex, and comorbidities.Results: Of 694 adults, 438 (63%) developed mild (not hospitalised), 169 (24%) moderate (hospitalised out of the intensive care unit (ICU) and 87 (13%) severe (patients in ICU/deceased) disease. In multivariable imputed analyses, the variables associated with severe infection were age (OR=1.08, 95% CI: 1.05-1.10), female gender (OR=0.45, 95% CI: 0.25-0.80), body mass index (OR=1.07, 95% CI: 1.02-1.12), hypertension (OR=1.86, 95% CI: 1.01-3.42), and use of corticosteroids (OR=1.97, 95% CI: 1.09-3.54), mycophenolate mofetil (OR=6.6, 95% CI: 1.47-29.62) and rituximab (OR=4.21, 95% CI: 1.61-10.98). Fifty-eight patients died (8% (total) and 23% (hospitalised)). Compared with 175 matched hospitalised patients with non-iRMD-COVID-19, the OR of mortality associated with hospitalised patients with iRMD-COVID-19 was 1.45 (95% CI: 0.87-2.42) (n=175 each group).Conclusions: In the French RMD COVID-19 cohort, as already identified in the general population, older age, male gender, obesity, and hypertension were found to be associated with severe COVID-19. Patients with iRMD on corticosteroids, but not methotrexate, or tumour necrosis factor alpha and interleukin-6 inhibitors, should be considered as more likely to develop severe COVID-19. Unlike common comorbidities such as obesity, and cardiovascular or lung diseases, the risk of death is not significantly increased in patients with iRMD

Severity of COVID-19 and survival in patients with rheumatic and inflammatory diseases: data from the French RMD COVID-19 cohort of 694 patients

International audienceObjectives: There is little known about the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on patients with inflammatory rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (iRMD). We examined epidemiological characteristics associated with severe disease, then with death. We also compared mortality between patients hospitalised for COVID-19 with and without iRMD.Methods: Individuals with suspected iRMD-COVID-19 were included in this French cohort. Logistic regression models adjusted for age and sex were used to estimate adjusted ORs and 95% CIs of severe COVID-19. The most significant clinically relevant factors were analysed by multivariable penalised logistic regression models, using a forward selection method. The death rate of hospitalised patients with iRMD-COVID-19 (moderate-severe) was compared with a subset of patients with non-iRMD-COVID-19 from a French hospital matched for age, sex, and comorbidities.Results: Of 694 adults, 438 (63%) developed mild (not hospitalised), 169 (24%) moderate (hospitalised out of the intensive care unit (ICU) and 87 (13%) severe (patients in ICU/deceased) disease. In multivariable imputed analyses, the variables associated with severe infection were age (OR=1.08, 95% CI: 1.05-1.10), female gender (OR=0.45, 95% CI: 0.25-0.80), body mass index (OR=1.07, 95% CI: 1.02-1.12), hypertension (OR=1.86, 95% CI: 1.01-3.42), and use of corticosteroids (OR=1.97, 95% CI: 1.09-3.54), mycophenolate mofetil (OR=6.6, 95% CI: 1.47-29.62) and rituximab (OR=4.21, 95% CI: 1.61-10.98). Fifty-eight patients died (8% (total) and 23% (hospitalised)). Compared with 175 matched hospitalised patients with non-iRMD-COVID-19, the OR of mortality associated with hospitalised patients with iRMD-COVID-19 was 1.45 (95% CI: 0.87-2.42) (n=175 each group).Conclusions: In the French RMD COVID-19 cohort, as already identified in the general population, older age, male gender, obesity, and hypertension were found to be associated with severe COVID-19. Patients with iRMD on corticosteroids, but not methotrexate, or tumour necrosis factor alpha and interleukin-6 inhibitors, should be considered as more likely to develop severe COVID-19. Unlike common comorbidities such as obesity, and cardiovascular or lung diseases, the risk of death is not significantly increased in patients with iRMD