Communicating earthquake risk: mapped parameters and cartographic representation

Earthquake risk assessment is probably the most effective tool for reducing adverse earthquake effects and for developing pre- and post-event planning actions. The related risk information (data and results) is of interest for persons with different backgrounds and interests, including scientists, emergency planners, decision makers and other stakeholders. Hence, it is important to ensure that this information is properly transferred to all persons involved in seismic risk, considering the nature of the information and the particular circumstances of the source and of the receiver of the information. Some experience-based recommendations about the parameters and the graphical representations that can be used to portray earthquake risk information to different types of audiences are presented in this work

Seismic Hazard and Ground Motion Characterization at the Itoiz Dam (Northern Spain).

This paper presents a new hazard-consistent ground motion characterization of the Itoiz dam site, located in Northern Spain. Firstly, we propose a methodology with different approximation levels to the expected ground motion at the dam site. Secondly, we apply this methodology taking into account the particular characteristics of the site and of the dam. Hazard calculations were performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment method using a logic tree, which accounts for different seismic source zonings and different ground-motion attenuation relationships. The study was done in terms of peak ground acceleration and several spectral accelerations of periods coinciding with the fundamental vibration periods of the dam. In order to estimate these ground motions we consider two different dam conditions: when the dam is empty (T = 0.1 s) and when it is filled with water to its maximum capacity (T = 0.22 s). Additionally, seismic hazard analysis is done for two return periods: 975 years, related to the project earthquake, and 4,975 years, identified with an extreme event. Soil conditions were also taken into account at the site of the dam. Through the proposed methodology we deal with different forms of characterizing ground motion at the study site. In a first step, we obtain the uniform hazard response spectra for the two return periods. In a second step, a disaggregation analysis is done in order to obtain the controlling earthquakes that can affect the dam. Subsequently, we characterize the ground motion at the dam site in terms of specific response spectra for target motions defined by the expected values SA (T) of T = 0.1 and 0.22 s for the return periods of 975 and 4,975 years, respectively. Finally, synthetic acceleration time histories for earthquake events matching the controlling parameters are generated using the discrete wave-number method and subsequently analyzed. Because of the short relative distances between the controlling earthquakes and the dam site we considered finite sources in these computations. We conclude that directivity effects should be taken into account as an important variable in this kind of studies for ground motion characteristics

Approach for combining fault and area sources in seismic hazard assessment: application in south-eastern Spain

This paper presents a methodological approach to seismic hazard assessment based on a hybrid source model composed of faults as independent entities and zones containing residual seismicity. The seismic potential of both types of sources is derived from different data: for the zones, the recurrence model is estimated from the seismic catalogue. For fault sources, it is inferred from slip rates derived from palaeoseismicity and GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) measurements.Distributing the seismic potential associated with each source is a key question when considering hybrid zone and fault models, and this is normally resolved using one of two possible alternatives: (1) considering a characteristic earthquake model for the fault and assigning the remaining magnitudes to the zone, or (2) establishing a cut-off magnitude, Mc, above which the seisms are assigned to the fault and below which they are considered to have occurred in the zone. This paper presents an approach to distributing seismic potential between zones and faults without restricting the magnitudes for each type of source, precluding the need to establish cut-off Mc values beforehand. This is the essential difference between our approach and other approaches that have been applied previously.The proposed approach is applied in southern Spain, a region of low-to-moderate seismicity where faults move slowly. The results obtained are contrasted with the results of a seismic hazard method based exclusively on the zone model. Using the hybrid approach, acceleration values show a concentration of expected accelerations around fault traces, which is not appreciated in the classic approach using only zones.</p

Analysis of urban parameters in the characterization of seismic vulnerability: application to the city of Lorca.

Estimación de la intensidad tras el terremoto de Lorca

Three-dimensional flexural modelling of the Ebro Basin(NE Iberia)

The Ebro Basin, the southern foreland basin of the Pyrenees, has undergone a complex evolution in which, apart from the Pyrenees, the Iberian Range and the Catalan Coastal Ranges have played an important role, both as sediment sources and as basin confining structures. The deflected basement underlying the Ebro Basin dips north, suggesting a lithospheric-scale control on the structure of this basin. This is compatible with the results of subsidence analyses, which show that the study area is not in a local mode of isostatic compensation. In order better to understand the mechanisms that led to the present configuration of the Ebro Basin, and particularly the relevance of the various kinds of (un)loading (e.g. surrounding fold-and-thrust belts, basin topography, subsurface loads), we carried out a 3-D kinematic modelling study that accounts for the flexural state of the lithosphere, subjected to various loads applied at its lateral boundaries, and the sedimentary fill of the basin. We also included the effect of Neogene extensional tectonics along the eastern basin margin, which is related to the opening of the Valencia Trough. We show the suitability of the 3-D lithospheric-scale flexural modelling approach to the study of NE Iberia. Modelling results point to a relatively strong lithosphere in this area, with values of effective elastic thickness ranging from 10 to 35 km in the Ebro Basin, increasing towards the Pyrenees. We also find that the topographic (tectonic) load itself is insufficient to explain the observed basement deflection. Thus an extra subsurface load beneath the Pyrenees, corresponding to the underthrusted Iberian lithosphere, is required. The effect of lithospheric stretching in the Valencia Trough on the Ebro Basin is appreciable only in its eastern part, where the lithosphere was uplifted. This had considerable repercussions on the sedimentary and erosional regime of the Ebro Basin. We have analysed the link between the stretching-related, tectonically uplifted areas and the erosional patterns observed onshore northeast Iberi

Uncertainty Analysis in New Seismic Hazard Study of Spain Aimed at the Revision of the Spanish Building Code.

In this paper we present a global overview of the recent study carried out in Spain for the new hazard map, which final goal is the revision of the Building Code in our country (NCSE-02). The study was carried our for a working group joining experts from The Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) and the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) , being the different phases of the work supervised by an expert Committee integrated by national experts from public institutions involved in subject of seismic hazard. The PSHA method (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) has been followed, quantifying the epistemic uncertainties through a logic tree and the aleatory ones linked to variability of parameters by means of probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations. In a first phase, the inputs have been prepared, which essentially are: 1) a project catalogue update and homogenization at Mw 2) proposal of zoning models and source characterization 3) calibration of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPE’s) with actual data and development of a local model with data collected in Spain for Mw < 5.5. In a second phase, a sensitivity analysis of the different input options on hazard results has been carried out in order to have criteria for defining the branches of the logic tree and their weights. Finally, the hazard estimation was done with the logic tree shown in figure 1, including nodes for quantifying uncertainties corresponding to: 1) method for estimation of hazard (zoning and zoneless); 2) zoning models, 3) GMPE combinations used and 4) regression method for estimation of source parameters. In addition, the aleatory uncertainties corresponding to the magnitude of the events, recurrence parameters and maximum magnitude for each zone have been also considered including probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations The main conclusions of the study are presented here, together with the obtained results in terms of PGA and other spectral accelerations SA (T) for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years. The map of the coefficient of variation (COV) are also represented to give an idea of the zones where the dispersion among results are the highest and the zones where the results are robust

Hazard-consistent response spectra in the Region of Murcia (Southeast Spain): comparison to earthquake-resistant provisions

Hazard-consistent ground-motion characterisations of three representative sites located in the Region of Murcia (southeast Spain) are presented. This is the area where the last three damaging events in Spain occurred and there is a significant amount of data for comparing them with seismic hazard estimates and earthquake-resistant provisions. Results of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are used to derive uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the 475-year return period, on rock and soil conditions. Hazard deaggregation shows that the largest hazard contributions are due to small, local events for short-period target motions and to moderate, more distant events for long-period target motions. For each target motion and site considered, the associated specific response spectra (SRS) are obtained. It is shown that the combination of two SRS, for short- and long-period ground motions respectively, provides a good approximation to the UHS at each site. The UHS are compared to design response spectra contained in current Spanish and European seismic codes for the 475-year return period. For the three sites analysed, only the Eurocode 8 (EC8) type 2 spectrum captures the basic shape of the UHS (and not the EC8 type 1, as could be expected a priori). An alternative response spectrum, anchored at short- and long-period accelerations, is tested, providing a close match to the UHS spectra at the three sites. Results underline the important contribution of the frequent, low-to-moderate earthquakes that characterize the seismicity of this area to seismic hazard (at the 475-year return period)

Study of eta-eta ' mixing from measurement of B-(s)(0) -&gt; J/psi eta((')) decay rates

A study of B and Bs meson decays into J/ψ η and J/ψ η′ final states is performed using a data set of proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV, collected by the LCHb experiment and corresponding to 3.0 fb−1 of integrated luminosity. The decay B0 → J/ψ η′ is observed for the first time. The following ratios of branching fractions are measured: B(B0→J/ψη′)B(B0s→ J/ψη′)=(2.28±0.65 (stat)±0.10 (syst)±0.13 (fs/fd))×10−2,B(B0→ J/ψη)B(B0s→ J/ψη)=(1.85±0.61 (stat)±0.09 (syst)±0.11 (fs/fd))×10−2, where the third uncertainty is related to the present knowledge of fs/fd, the ratio between the probabilities for a b quark to form a Bs or a B0 meson. The branching fraction ratios are used to determine the parameters of η − η′ meson mixing. In addition, the first evidence for the decay Bs → ψ(2S)η′ is reported, and the relative branching fraction is measured, B(B0s→ ψ(2S)η′)B(B0s→ J/ψη′)=(38.7±9.0 (stat)±1.3 (syst)±0.9(B))×10−2, where the third uncertainty is due to the limited knowledge of the branching fractions of J/ψ and ψ(2S) mesons

Search for the Λb0→Λη′\Lambda^0_b \rightarrow \Lambda \eta^\prime and Λb0→Λη\Lambda^0_b \rightarrow \Lambda \eta decays with the LHCb detector

A search is performed for the as yet unobserved baryonic $\Lambda_b \rightarrow \Lambda \eta^\prime$ and $\Lambda_b \rightarrow \Lambda \eta$ decays with 3$fb^{-1}$ of proton-proton collision data recorded by the LHCb experiment. The $B^0 \rightarrow K_S^0 \eta^\prime$ decay is used as a normalisation channel. No significant signal is observed for the $\Lambda_b \rightarrow \Lambda \eta^\prime$ decay. An upper limit is found on the branching fraction of $\mathcal{B}(\Lambda_b \rightarrow \Lambda \eta^\prime)<3.1\times10^{-6}$} at 90\% confidence level. Evidence is seen for the presence of the $\Lambda_b \rightarrow \Lambda \eta$ decay at the level of $3\sigma$ significance, with a branching fraction $\mathcal{B}(\Lambda_b \rightarrow \Lambda \eta)=(9.3^{+7.3}_{-5.3})\times10^{-6}$}.Comment: 22 pages, 6 figures. v2 is published version (very minor revisions

Evaluación de la sostenibilidad de explotaciones de vacuno de carne ecológicas y convencionales en sistemas agroforestales: estudio del caso de las dehesas

El vacuno de carne es una de las actividades ganaderas que se desarrolla en las comarcas donde COVAP tiene su ámbito de actuación. Además de la cría de las vacas nodrizas de los socios, también se lleva a cabo el cebo de los terneros en cebaderos comunitarios. Una de las inquietudes de la Cooperativa, es dar el mejor servicio a los clientes a través de una producción rentable. Por ello, existía la inquietud de cuál de los dos sistemas productivos que se estaban empleando, mezclas unifeed húmedas vs. pienso concentrado y paja era la más conveniente en todos los aspectos posibles. También qué raza de las tres más extendidas, Charolesa, Limusina y Retinta era más idónea para criar terneros destinados al cebo.Publishe