Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade

Integrating crop modelling and production economics to investigate multiple nutrient deficiencies and yield gaps

A method is described for integrating crop modelling and production economics to quantify optimum applications of multiple nutrients and yield gaps. The method is demonstrated for crop production in the high-rainfall zone of southern Australia. Data from a biophysical crop model were used to overcome the persistent problem of inadequate experimental data. The Mitscherlich function was expanded to accommodate four variable inputs – nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and sulphur – and the expansion path was used to determine the economic optimum application of all four nutrients. Modelling revealed the state-contingent yield potential and the extent to which unrealised yield could be explained by profit-maximising behaviour and riskaversion by growers. If growers and their advisors were guided by the methods described, they would be better equipped to assess crop nutrient demands and limitations, predict yield potential, additional profit and the risks associated with high input systems in a variable climate. If scientists were more aware of the extra profits and the risks involved (as well as the quantitative relationships between inputs and outputs) when thinking about what to produce and how to do so, they would be more circumspect about the net benefits to be obtained from closing yield gaps

An Explanatory Model of Red Lentil Seed Coat Colour to Manage Degradation in Quality during Storage

This study presents an explanatory biophysical model developed and validated to simulate seed coat colour traits including CIE L*, a*, and b* changes over time for stored lentil cultivars PBA Hallmark, PBA Hurricane, PBA Bolt, and PBA Jumbo2 under diverse storage conditions. The model showed robust performance for all cultivars, with R2 values ≥ 0.89 and RMSE values ≤ 0.0019 for all seed coat colour traits. Laboratory validation at 35 °C demonstrated a high agreement (Lin’s Concordance Correlation Coefficient, CCC ≥ 0.82) between simulated and observed values of all colour traits for PBA Jumbo2 and strong agreement (CCC ≥ 0.81) for PBA Hallmark in brightness (CIE L*) and redness (CIE a*), but not in yellowness (CIE b*). At 15 °C, both cultivars exhibited moderate to weak agreement between simulated and observed values of all colour traits (CCC ≤ 0.47), as very little change was recorded in the observed values over the 360 days of storage. Bulk storage system validation for PBA Hallmark showed moderate performance (CCC ≥ 0.46) between simulated and observed values of all colour traits. Modelling to simulate changes in seed coat colour traits of lentils over time will equip growers and traders to make informed managerial decisions when storing lentils for long periods

Stem-elongation

Growth and morphological parameters of wheat recorded at stem-elongation (DC31)

Data from: Elevated [CO2] mitigates the effect of surface drought by stimulating root growth to access sub-soil water

Through stimulation of root growth, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) may facilitate access of crops to sub-soil water, which could potentially prolong physiological activity in dryland environments, particularly because crops are more water use efficient under elevated [CO2] (e[CO2]). This study investigated the effect of drought in shallow soil versus sub-soil on agronomic and physiological responses of wheat to e[CO2] in a glasshouse experiment. Wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Yitpi) was grown in split-columns with the top (0–30 cm) and bottom (31–60 cm; ‘sub-soil’) soil layer hydraulically separated by a wax-coated, root-penetrable layer under ambient [CO2] (a[CO2], ∼400 μmol mol-1) or e[CO2] (∼700 μmol mol-1) [CO2]. Drought was imposed from stem-elongation in either the top or bottom soil layer or both by withholding 33% of the irrigation, resulting in four water treatments (WW, WD, DW, DD; D = drought, W = well-watered, letters denote water treatment in top and bottom soil layer, respectively). Leaf gas exchange was measured weekly from stem-elongation until anthesis. Above-and belowground biomass, grain yield and yield components were evaluated at three developmental stages (stem-elongation, anthesis and maturity). Compared with a[CO2], net assimilation rate was higher and stomatal conductance was lower under e[CO2], resulting in greater intrinsic water use efficiency. Elevated [CO2] stimulated both above- and belowground biomass as well as grain yield, however, this stimulation was greater under well-watered (WW) than drought (DD) throughout the whole soil profile. Imposition of drought in either or both soil layers decreased aboveground biomass and grain yield under both [CO2] compared to the well-watered treatment. However, the greatest ‘CO2 fertilisation effect’ was observed when drought was imposed in the top soil layer only (DW), and this was associated with e[CO2]-stimulation of root growth especially in the well-watered bottom layer. We suggest that stimulation of belowground biomass under e[CO2] will allow better access to sub-soil water during grain filling period, when additional water is converted into additional yield with high efficiency in Mediterranean-type dryland agro-ecosystems. If sufficient water is available in the sub-soil, e[CO2] may help mitigating the effect of drying surface soil

Data from: Elevated [CO2] mitigates the effect of surface drought by stimulating root growth to access sub-soil water

Through stimulation of root growth, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) may facilitate access of crops to sub-soil water, which could potentially prolong physiological activity in dryland environments, particularly because crops are more water use efficient under elevated [CO2] (e[CO2]). This study investigated the effect of drought in shallow soil versus sub-soil on agronomic and physiological responses of wheat to e[CO2] in a glasshouse experiment. Wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Yitpi) was grown in split-columns with the top (0–30 cm) and bottom (31–60 cm; ‘sub-soil’) soil layer hydraulically separated by a wax-coated, root-penetrable layer under ambient [CO2] (a[CO2], ∼400 μmol mol-1) or e[CO2] (∼700 μmol mol-1) [CO2]. Drought was imposed from stem-elongation in either the top or bottom soil layer or both by withholding 33% of the irrigation, resulting in four water treatments (WW, WD, DW, DD; D = drought, W = well-watered, letters denote water treatment in top and bottom soil layer, respectively). Leaf gas exchange was measured weekly from stem-elongation until anthesis. Above-and belowground biomass, grain yield and yield components were evaluated at three developmental stages (stem-elongation, anthesis and maturity). Compared with a[CO2], net assimilation rate was higher and stomatal conductance was lower under e[CO2], resulting in greater intrinsic water use efficiency. Elevated [CO2] stimulated both above- and belowground biomass as well as grain yield, however, this stimulation was greater under well-watered (WW) than drought (DD) throughout the whole soil profile. Imposition of drought in either or both soil layers decreased aboveground biomass and grain yield under both [CO2] compared to the well-watered treatment. However, the greatest ‘CO2 fertilisation effect’ was observed when drought was imposed in the top soil layer only (DW), and this was associated with e[CO2]-stimulation of root growth especially in the well-watered bottom layer. We suggest that stimulation of belowground biomass under e[CO2] will allow better access to sub-soil water during grain filling period, when additional water is converted into additional yield with high efficiency in Mediterranean-type dryland agro-ecosystems. If sufficient water is available in the sub-soil, e[CO2] may help mitigating the effect of drying surface soil

Catalase Modulates the Radio-Sensitization of Pancreatic Cancer Cells by Pharmacological Ascorbate

Pancreatic cancer cells (PDACs) are more susceptible to an oxidative insult than normal cells, resulting in greater cytotoxicity upon exposure to agents that increase pro-oxidant levels. Pharmacological ascorbate (P-AscH−), i.e., large amounts given intravenously (IV), generates significant fluxes of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), resulting in the killing of PDACs but not normal cells. Recent studies have demonstrated that P-AscH− radio-sensitizes PDAC but is a radioprotector to normal cells and tissues. Several mechanisms have been hypothesized to explain the dual roles of P-AscH− in radiation-induced toxicity including the activation of nuclear factor-erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2), RelB, as well as changes in bioenergetic profiles. We have found that P-AscH− in conjunction with radiation increases Nrf2 in both cancer cells and normal cells. Although P-AscH− with radiation decreases RelB in cancer cells vs. normal cells, the knockout of RelB does not radio-sensitize PDACs. Cellular bioenergetic profiles demonstrate that P-AscH− with radiation increases the ATP demand/production rate (glycolytic and oxidative phosphorylation) in both PDACs and normal cells. Knocking out catalase results in P-AscH− radio-sensitization in PDACs. In a phase I trial where P-AscH− was included as an adjuvant to the standard of care, short-term survivors had higher catalase levels in tumor tissue, compared to long-term survivors. These data suggest that P-AscH− radio-sensitizes PDACs through increased peroxide flux. Catalase levels could be a possible indicator for how tumors will respond to P-AscH−

Does Elevated [CO2] Only Increase Root Growth in the Topsoil? A FACE Study with Lentil in a Semi-Arid Environment

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2] are increasing steadily. Some reports have shown that root growth in grain crops is mostly stimulated in the topsoil rather than evenly throughout the soil profile by e[CO2], which is not optimal for crops grown in semi-arid environments with strong reliance on stored water. An experiment was conducted during the 2014 and 2015 growing seasons with two lentil (Lens culinaris) genotypes grown under Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) in which root growth was observed non-destructively with mini-rhizotrons approximately every 2–3 weeks. Root growth was not always statistically increased by e[CO2] and not consistently between depths and genotypes. In 2014, root growth in the top 15 cm of the soil profile (topsoil) was indeed increased by e[CO2], but increases at lower depths (30–45 cm) later in the season were greater than in the topsoil. In 2015, e[CO2] only increased root length in the topsoil for one genotype, potentially reflecting the lack of plant available soil water between 30–60 cm until recharged by irrigation during grain filling. Our limited data to compare responses to e[CO2] showed that root length increases in the topsoil were correlated with a lower yield response to e[CO2]. The increase in yield response was rather correlated with increases in root growth below 30 cm depth

Early vigour in wheat: could it lead to more severe terminal drought stress under elevated atmospheric [CO2] and semi‐arid conditions?

Early vigour in wheat is a trait that has received attention for its benefits reducing evaporation from the soil surface early in the season. However, with the growth enhancement common to crops grown under elevated atmospheric CO concentrations (e[CO ]), there is a risk that too much early growth might deplete soil water and lead to more severe terminal drought stress in environments where production relies on stored soil water content. If this is the case, the incorporation of such a trait in wheat breeding programs might have unintended negative consequences in the future, especially in dry years. We used selected data from cultivars with proven expression of high and low early vigour from the Australian Grains Free Air CO Enrichment (AGFACE) facility, and complemented this analysis with simulation results from two crop growth models which differ in the modelling of leaf area development and crop water use. Grain yield responses to e[CO ] were lower in the high early vigour group compared to the low early vigour group, and although these differences were not significant, they were corroborated by simulation model results. However, the simulated lower response with high early vigour lines was not caused by an earlier or greater depletion of soil water under e[CO ] and the mechanisms responsible appear to be related to an earlier saturation of the radiation intercepted. Whether this is the case in the field needs to be further investigated. In addition, there was some evidence that the timing of the drought stress during crop growth influenced the effect of e[CO ] regardless of the early vigour trait. There is a need for FACE investigations of the value of traits for drought adaptation to be conducted under more severe drought conditions and variable timing of drought stress, a risky but necessary endeavour