Parametric POMDPs for planning in continuous state spaces

This thesis is concerned with planning and acting under uncertainty in partially-observable continuous domains. In particular, it focusses on the problem of mobile robot navigation given a known map. The dominant paradigm for robot localisation is to use Bayesian estimation to maintain a probability distribution over possible robot poses. In contrast, control algorithms often base their decisions on the assumption that a single state, such as the mode of this distribution, is correct. In scenarios involving significant uncertainty, this can lead to serious control errors. It is generally agreed that the reliability of navigation in uncertain environments would be greatly improved by the ability to consider the entire distribution when acting, rather than the single most likely state. The framework adopted in this thesis for modelling navigation problems mathematically is the Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). An exact solution to a POMDP problem provides the optimal balance between reward-seeking behaviour and information-seeking behaviour, in the presence of sensor and actuation noise. Unfortunately, previous exact and approximate solution methods have had difficulty scaling to real applications. The contribution of this thesis is the formulation of an approach to planning in the space of continuous parameterised approximations to probability distributions. Theoretical and practical results are presented which show that, when compared with similar methods from the literature, this approach is capable of scaling to larger and more realistic problems. In order to apply the solution algorithm to real-world problems, a number of novel improvements are proposed. Specifically, Monte Carlo methods are employed to estimate distributions over future parameterised beliefs, improving planning accuracy without a loss of efficiency. Conditional independence assumptions are exploited to simplify the problem, reducing computational requirements. Scalability is further increased by focussing computation on likely beliefs, using metric indexing structures for efficient function approximation. Local online planning is incorporated to assist global offline planning, allowing the precision of the latter to be decreased without adversely affecting solution quality. Finally, the algorithm is implemented and demonstrated during real-time control of a mobile robot in a challenging navigation task. We argue that this task is substantially more challenging and realistic than previous problems to which POMDP solution methods have been applied. Results show that POMDP planning, which considers the evolution of the entire probability distribution over robot poses, produces significantly more robust behaviour when compared with a heuristic planner which considers only the most likely states and outcomes

Functionally oriented analysis of cardiometabolic traits in a trans-ethnic sample

Interpretation of genetic association results is difficult because signals often lack biological context. To generate hypotheses of the functional genetic etiology of complex cardiometabolic traits, we estimated the genetically determined component of gene expression from common variants using PrediXcan (1) and determined genes with differential predicted expression by trait. PrediXcan imputes tissue-specific expression levels from genetic variation using variant-level effect on gene expression in transcriptome data. To explore the value of imputed genetically regulated gene expression (GReX) models across different ancestral populations, we evaluated imputed expression levels for predictive accuracy genome-wide in RNA sequence data in samples drawn from European-Ancestry and African-Ancestry populations and identified substantial predictive power using European-derived models in a non-European target population.We then tested the association of GReX on 15 cardiometabolic traits including blood lipid levels, body mass index, height, blood pressure, fasting glucose and insulin, RR interval, fibrinogen level, factor VII level and white blood cell and platelet counts in 15 755 individuals across three ancestry groups, resulting in 20 novel gene-phenotype associations reaching experiment-wide significance across ancestries. In addition, we identified 18 significant novel gene-phenotype associations in our ancestry-specific analyses. Top associations were assessed for additional support via query of S-PrediXcan (2) results derived from publicly available genome-wide association studies summary data. Collectively, these findings illustrate the utility of transcriptome-based imputation models for discovery of cardiometabolic effect genes in a diverse dataset

Novel genetic loci associated with hippocampal volume

The hippocampal formation is a brain structure integrally involved in episodic memory, spatial navigation, cognition and stress responsiveness. Structural abnormalities in hippocampal volume and shape are found in several common neuropsychiatric disorders. To identify the genetic underpinnings of hippocampal structure here we perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 33,536 individuals and discover six independent loci significantly associated with hippocampal volume, four of them novel. Of the novel loci, three lie within genes (ASTN2, DPP4 and MAST4) and one is found 200 kb upstream of SHH. A hippocampal subfield analysis shows that a locus within the MSRB3 gene shows evidence of a localized effect along the dentate gyrus, subiculum, CA1 and fissure. Further, we show that genetic variants associated with decreased hippocampal volume are also associated with increased risk for Alzheimer's disease (rg =-0.155). Our findings suggest novel biological pathways through which human genetic variation influences hippocampal volume and risk for neuropsychiatric illness

The Psychological Science Accelerator’s COVID-19 rapid-response dataset

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Psychological Science Accelerator coordinated three large-scale psychological studies to examine the effects of loss-gain framing, cognitive reappraisals, and autonomy framing manipulations on behavioral intentions and affective measures. The data collected (April to October 2020) included specific measures for each experimental study, a general questionnaire examining health prevention behaviors and COVID-19 experience, geographical and cultural context characterization, and demographic information for each participant. Each participant started the study with the same general questions and then was randomized to complete either one longer experiment or two shorter experiments. Data were provided by 73,223 participants with varying completion rates. Participants completed the survey from 111 geopolitical regions in 44 unique languages/dialects. The anonymized dataset described here is provided in both raw and processed formats to facilitate re-use and further analyses. The dataset offers secondary analytic opportunities to explore coping, framing, and self-determination across a diverse, global sample obtained at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which can be merged with other time-sampled or geographic data

The Psychological Science Accelerator’s COVID-19 rapid-response dataset

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Psychological Science Accelerator coordinated three large-scale psychological studies to examine the effects of loss-gain framing, cognitive reappraisals, and autonomy framing manipulations on behavioral intentions and affective measures. The data collected (April to October 2020) included specific measures for each experimental study, a general questionnaire examining health prevention behaviors and COVID-19 experience, geographical and cultural context characterization, and demographic information for each participant. Each participant started the study with the same general questions and then was randomized to complete either one longer experiment or two shorter experiments. Data were provided by 73,223 participants with varying completion rates. Participants completed the survey from 111 geopolitical regions in 44 unique languages/dialects. The anonymized dataset described here is provided in both raw and processed formats to facilitate re-use and further analyses. The dataset offers secondary analytic opportunities to explore coping, framing, and self-determination across a diverse, global sample obtained at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which can be merged with other time-sampled or geographic data

Stakeholder engagement in the development of public health economic models: an application to modelling of minimum unit pricing of alcohol in South Africa

Background: Health economic models aim to provide decision makers with information that is contextually relevant, understandable and credible. This requires ongoing engagement throughout the research project between the modeller and end-users. Objectives: We aim to reflect on how a public health economic model of minimum unit pricing of alcohol in South Africa benefited from, and was shaped by, stakeholders. We outline how engagement activities were used during the development, validation and communication phases of the research with input gathered at each stage to inform future priorities. Methods: A stakeholder mapping exercise was completed to identify stakeholders with the required knowledge, for example academics with expertise in modelling alcohol harm in South Africa, members of civil society organisations with lived experience of informal alcohol outlets, and policy professionals working at the forefront of alcohol policy development in South Africa. The stakeholder engagement consisted of four phases: developing a detailed understanding of the local policy context; co-producing model focus and structure; scrutinising model development and communication planning; and communicating research evidence to end-users. The first phase utilised 12 individual semi-structured interviews. Phases two to four centred around face-to-face workshops (two online) with both individual and group-based exercises employed to achieve required outputs. Results: Phase one provided key learning on policy context and initiated working relationships. Phases two to four provided a conceptualisation of the problem of alcohol harm in South Africa and the choice of policy to model. Stakeholders chose population subgroups of interest and advised on both economic and health outcomes. They provided input on critical assumptions, data sources, priorities for future work, and communication strategies. The final workshop provided a platform to communicate the results of the model to a largely policy audience. These activities led to the production of highly contextualised research methods and findings that were able to be communicated widely beyond academia. Conclusions: Our programme of stakeholder engagement was fully integrated into the research programme. It resulted in a number of benefits including creating positive working relationships, guiding modelling decisions, tailoring the research to the context, and providing ongoing opportunities for communication