Secondary organic aerosol in the global aerosol ? chemical transport model Oslo CTM2

International audienceThe global chemical transport model Oslo CTM2 has been extended to include the formation, transport and deposition of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Precursor hydrocarbons which are oxidised to form condensible species include both biogenic species such as terpenes and isoprene, as well as species emitted predominantly by anthropogenic activities (toluene, m-xylene, methylbenzene and other aromatics). A model simulation for 2004 gives an annual global SOA production of approximately 55 Tg. Of this total, 2.5 Tg is found to consist of the oxidation products of anthropogenically emitted hydrocarbons, and about 15 Tg is formed by the oxidation products of isoprene. The global production of SOA is increased to about 69 Tg yr?1 by allowing semi-volatile species to partition to ammonium sulphate aerosol. This brings modelled organic aerosol values closer to those observed, however observations in Europe remain significantly underestimated. Allowing SOA to partition into ammonium sulphate aerosol increases the contribution of anthropogenic SOA from about 4.5% to 9.4% of the total production. Total modelled organic aerosol (OA) values are found to represent a lower fraction of the measured values in winter (when primary organic aerosol (POA) is the dominant OA component) than in summer, which may be an indication that estimates of POA emissions are too low. Additionally, for measurement stations where the summer OA values are higher than in winter, the model generally underestimates the increase in summertime OA. In order to correctly model the observed increase in OA in summer, additional SOA sources or formation mechanisms may be necessary. The importance of NO3 as an oxidant of SOA precursors is found to vary regionally, causing up to 50%?60% of the total amount of SOA near the surface in polluted regions and less than 25% in more remote areas, if the yield of condensible oxidation products for ?-pinene is used for NO3 oxidation of all terpenes. Reducing the yield for ?-pinene and limonene oxidation in line with recent measurements reduces the global fraction of SOA formed from NO3 oxidation products from 27% to about 21%. This study underscores the need for SOA to be represented in a more realistic way in global aerosol models in order to better reproduce observations of organic aerosol burdens in industrialised and biomass burning regions

The Rise Times of High and Low Redshift Type Ia Supernovae are Consistent

We present a self-consistent comparison of the rise times for low- and high-redshift Type Ia supernovae. Following previous studies, the early light curve is modeled using a t-squared law, which is then mated with a modified Leibundgut template light curve. The best-fit t-squared law is determined for ensemble samples of low- and high-redshift supernovae by fitting simultaneously for all light curve parameters for all supernovae in each sample. Our method fully accounts for the non-negligible covariance amongst the light curve fitting parameters, which previous analyses have neglected. Contrary to Riess et al. (1999), we find fair to good agreement between the rise times of the low- and high-redshift Type Ia supernovae. The uncertainty in the rise time of the high-redshift Type Ia supernovae is presently quite large (roughly +/- 1.2 days statistical), making any search for evidence of evolution based on a comparison of rise times premature. Furthermore, systematic effects on rise time determinations from the high-redshift observations, due to the form of the late-time light curve and the manner in which the light curves of these supernovae were sampled, can bias the high-redshift rise time determinations by up to +3.6/-1.9 days under extreme situations. The peak brightnesses - used for cosmology - do not suffer any significant bias, nor any significant increase in uncertainty.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, Accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal. Also available at http://www.lbl.gov/~nugent/papers.html Typos were corrected and a few sentences were added for improved clarit

Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere

Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone is expected for the 21st century. An assessment on changes in the tropospheric oxidative state through a model intercomparison ("OxComp'') was conducted for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC-TAR). OxComp estimated tropospheric changes in ozone and other oxidants during the 21st century based on the "SRES'' A2p emission scenario. In this study we analyze the results of 11 chemical transport models (CTMs) that participated in OxComp and use them as input for detailed radiative forcing calculations. We also address future ozone recovery in the lower stratosphere and its impact on radiative forcing by applying two models that calculate both tropospheric and stratospheric changes. The results of OxComp suggest an increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone between 11.4 and 20.5 DU for the 21st century, representing the model uncertainty range for the A2p scenario. As the A2p scenario constitutes the worst case proposed in IPCC-TAR we consider these results as an upper estimate. The radiative transfer model yields a positive radiative forcing ranging from 0.40 to 0.78 W m(-2) on a global and annual average. The lower stratosphere contributes an additional 7.5-9.3 DU to the calculated increase in the ozone column, increasing radiative forcing by 0.15-0.17 W m(-2). The modeled radiative forcing depends on the height distribution and geographical pattern of predicted ozone changes and shows a distinct seasonal variation. Despite the large variations between the 11 participating models, the calculated range for normalized radiative forcing is within 25%, indicating the ability to scale radiative forcing to global-mean ozone column change

Climate sensitivity estimates – sensitivity to radiative forcing time series and observational data

Inferred effective climate sensitivity (ECSinf) is estimated using a method combining radiative forcing (RF) time series and several series of observed ocean heat content (OHC) and near-surface temperature change in a Bayesian framework using a simple energy balance model and a stochastic model. The model is updated compared to our previous analysis by using recent forcing estimates from IPCC, including OHC data for the deep ocean, and extending the time series to 2014. In our main analysis, the mean value of the estimated ECSinf is 2.0 °C, with a median value of 1.9 °C and a 90 % credible interval (CI) of 1.2–3.1 °C. The mean estimate has recently been shown to be consistent with the higher values for the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by climate models. The transient climate response (TCR) is estimated to have a mean value of 1.4 °C (90 % CI 0.9–2.0 °C), and in our main analysis the posterior aerosol effective radiative forcing is similar to the range provided by the IPCC. We show a strong sensitivity of the estimated ECSinf to the choice of a priori RF time series, excluding pre-1950 data and the treatment of OHC data. Sensitivity analysis performed by merging the upper (0–700 m) and the deep-ocean OHC or using only one OHC dataset (instead of four in the main analysis) both give an enhancement of the mean ECSinf by about 50 % from our best estimate

Black carbon in the atmosphere and snow, from pre-industrial times until present

The distribution of black carbon (BC) in the atmosphere and the deposition of BC on snow surfaces since pre-industrial time until present are modelled with the Oslo CTM2 model. The model results are compared with observations including recent measurements of BC in snow in the Arctic. The global mean burden of BC from fossil fuel and biofuel sources increased during two periods. The first period, until 1920, is related to increases in emissions in North America and Europe, and the last period after 1970 are related mainly to increasing emissions in East Asia. Although the global burden of BC from fossil fuel and biofuel increases, in the Arctic the maximum atmospheric BC burden as well as in the snow was reached in 1960s, with a slight reduction thereafter. The global mean burden of BC from open biomass burning sources has not changed significantly since 1900. With current inventories of emissions from open biomass sources, the modelled burden of BC in snow and in the atmosphere north of 65° N is small compared to the BC burden of fossil fuel and biofuel origin. From the concentration changes radiative forcing time series due to the direct aerosol effect as well as the snow-albedo effect is calculated for BC from fossil fuel and biofuel. The calculated radiative forcing in 2000 for the direct aerosol effect is 0.35 W m<sup>−2</sup> and for the snow-albedo effect 0.016 W m<sup>−2</sup> in this study. Due to a southward shift in the emissions there is an increase in the lifetime of BC as well as an increase in normalized radiative forcing, giving a change in forcing per unit of emissions of 26 % since 1950

Lipidic cubic phase serial millisecond crystallography using synchrotron radiation.

Lipidic cubic phases (LCPs) have emerged as successful matrixes for the crystallization of membrane proteins.Moreover, the viscous LCP also provides a highly effective delivery medium for serial femtosecond crystallography (SFX) at X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs). Here, the adaptation of this technology to perform serial millisecond crystallography (SMX) at more widely available synchrotron microfocus beamlines is described. Compared with conventional microcrystallography, LCP-SMX eliminates the need for difficult handling of individual crystals and allows for data collection at room temperature. The technology is demonstrated by solving a structure of the light-driven protonpump bacteriorhodopsin (bR) at a resolution of 2.4 A ° . The room-temperature structure of bR is very similar to previous cryogenic structures but shows small yet distinct differences in the retinal ligand and proton-transfer pathway

TRADEOFFs in climate effects through aircraft routing: forcing due to radiatively active gases

We have estimated impacts of alternative aviation routings on the radiative forcing. Changes in ozone and OH have been estimated in four Chemistry Transport Models (CTMs) participating in the TRADEOFF project. Radiative forcings due to ozone and methane have been calculated accordingly. In addition radiative forcing due to CO2 is estimated based on fuel consumption. Three alternative routing cases are investigated; one scenario assuming additional polar routes and two scenarios assuming aircraft cruising at higher (+2000 ft) and lower (−6000 ft) altitudes. Results from the base case in year 2000 are included as a reference. Taking first a steady state backward looking approach, adding the changes in the forcing from ozone, CO2 and CH4, the ranges of the models used in this work are −0.8 to −1.8 and 0.3 to 0.6 m Wm−2 in the lower (−6000 ft) and higher (+2000 ft) cruise levels, respectively. In relative terms, flying 6000ft lower reduces the forcing by 5–10% compared to the current flight pattern, whereas flying higher, while saving fuel and presumably flying time, increases the forcing by about 2–3%. Taking next a forward looking approach we have estimated the integrated forcing (m Wm−2 yr) over 20 and 100 years time horizons. The relative contributions from each of the three climate gases are somewhat different from the backward looking approach. The differences are moderate adopting 100 year time horizon, whereas under the 20 year horizon CO2 naturally becomes less important relatively. Thus the forcing agents impact climate differently on various time scales. Also, we have found significant differences between the models for ozone and methane. We conclude that we are not yet at a point where we can include non-CO2 effects of aviation in emission trading schemes. Nevertheless, the rerouting cases that have been studied here yield relatively small changes in the radiative forcing due to the radiatively active gases

Topological crystalline insulator states in Pb(1-x)Sn(x)Se

Topological insulators are a novel class of quantum materials in which time-reversal symmetry, relativistic (spin-orbit) effects and an inverted band structure result in electronic metallic states on the surfaces of bulk crystals. These helical states exhibit a Dirac-like energy dispersion across the bulk bandgap, and they are topologically protected. Recent theoretical proposals have suggested the existence of topological crystalline insulators, a novel class of topological insulators in which crystalline symmetry replaces the role of time-reversal symmetry in topological protection [1,2]. In this study, we show that the narrow-gap semiconductor Pb(1-x)Sn(x)Se is a topological crystalline insulator for x=0.23. Temperature-dependent magnetotransport measurements and angle-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy demonstrate that the material undergoes a temperature-driven topological phase transition from a trivial insulator to a topological crystalline insulator. These experimental findings add a new class to the family of topological insulators. We expect these results to be the beginning of both a considerable body of additional research on topological crystalline insulators as well as detailed studies of topological phase transitions.Comment: v2: published revised manuscript (6 pages, 3 figures) and supplementary information (5 pages, 8 figures

The Epital Care Model: A New Person-Centered Model of Technology-Enabled Integrated Care for People With Long Term Conditions.

BACKGROUND: There is worldwide recognition that the future provision of health care requires a reorganization of provision of care, with increased empowerment and engagement of patients, along with skilled health professionals delivering services that are coordinated across sectors and organizations that provide health care. Technology may be a way to enable the creation of a coherent, cocreative, person-centered method to provide health care for individuals with one or more long-term conditions (LTCs). It remains to be determined how a new care model can be introduced that supports the intentions of the World Health Organization (WHO) to have integrated people-centered care. OBJECTIVE: To design, pilot, and test feasibility of a model of health care for people with LTCs based on a cocreative, iterative, and stepwise process in a way that recognizes the need for person-centered care, and embraces the use of digital technology. METHODS: The overall research method was inspired by action research and used an agile, iterative approach. In 2012, a living lab was established in a Danish municipality which allowed for the freedom of redesigning health care processes. As the first step, a wide group of stakeholders was gathered to create a layout for the reorganization of services and development of technology, based on established principles for innovative management of people with chronic conditions. The next three steps were (1) a proof of concept in 2012, (2) a pilot study, and (3) a feasibility study from 2013 to 2015, in which a total of 93 chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients were enrolled. Citizens were provided a tablet-based solution for remote follow-up and communication purposes, and access to a 24/7 response and coordination center that coordinated both virtual and face-to-face support for COPD management. In step five the initial model was extended with elements that support continuity of care. Beginning in the autumn of 2013, 1102 frail elderly individuals were included and offered two additional services: an outgoing acute medical team and a local subacute bed function. RESULTS: Based on the findings from the iterative process, and evolving technology and workflow solutions, we propose a robust and feasible model that can provide a framework for developing solutions to support an active life with one or more LTCs. The resulting Epital Care Model (ECM) consists of six stages, and serves as a template for how a digitally-enhanced health service can be provided based on patients' medical needs. The model is designed to be a proactive, preventive, and monitoring health care system that involves individuals in the management of their own health conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The ECM is in accordance with WHO's framework for integrated people-centered health services, and may serve as a framework for the development of new technologies and provide a template for future reorganization