Equipment Using a Predictive Health Model

Abstract—In this paper, a model-predictive control based framework is proposed for modeling and optimization of the health state of power system equipment. In the framework, a predictive health model is proposed that predicts the health state of the equipment based on its usage and maintenance actions. Based on the health state, the failure rate of the equipment can be estimated. We propose to use this predictive health model to predict the effects of different maintenance actions. The effects of maintenance actions over a future time window are evaluated by a cost function. The maintenance actions are optimized using this cost function. The proposed framework is applied in the optimization of the loading of transformers based on the thermal degradation of the paper insulation

Surface crusting as a constraint to sustainable management on a tropical Alfisol: I. Soil physical properties

Physical properties related to crust formation were assessed on a clayey-skeletal, mixed, isohyperthermic Udic Rhodustalf in India. A critical proportion (30 to 40%) of fine-textured fractions, particularly silt, appeared to be important in structural crust formation due to aggregate breakdown, rainfall compaction, and particle rearrangement of the surface soil. Significantly higher water dispersible clay percentage (7.1%) and dispersion ratio (0.34) at 60 days after planting (DAP) indicated diminished structural stability and increased slaking tendency of surface aggregates. Infiltration rates decreased by 40 to 60% in tilled bare systems from 0 to 60 DAP. Termite activity appeared to increase cumulative infiltration and steady state infiltration rate although additional research is required to determine the precise nature of its influence on porosity and pore continuity. Soil cover and biological components may be manageable factors to improve soil structure and stability, as well as to reduce crusting and its associated adverse effects in the semiarid tropic

Evaluation of the impact of the voucher and accreditation approach on improving reproductive behaviors and status in Cambodia

Background: Cost of delivering reproductive health services to low-income populations will always require total or partial subsidization by government and/or development partners. Broadly termed “demand-side financing” or “output-based aid,” these strategies include a range of interventions that channel government or donor subsidies to the user rather than the service provider. Initial pilot assessments of reproductive health voucher programs suggest that they can increase access, reduce inequities, and enhance program efficiency and service quality. However, there is a paucity of evidence describing how these programs function in different settings for various reproductive health services. Methods/Design: Population Council, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, intends to generate evidence around the “voucher and accreditation” approaches to improving the reproductive health of low-income women in Cambodia. The study comprises four populations: facilities, providers, women of reproductive age using facilities, and women and men who have been pregnant and/or used family planning within the previous 12 months. The study will be carried out in a sample of 20 health facilities that are accredited to provide maternal and newborn health and family planning services to women holding vouchers from operational districts in three provinces: Kampong Thom, Kampot, and Prey Veng and a matched sample of non-accredited facilities in three other provinces. Health facility assessments will be conducted at baseline and endline to track temporal changes in quality of care, client out-of-pocket costs, and utilization. Facility inventories, structured observations, and client exit interviews will be used to collect comparable data across facilities. Health providers will also be interviewed and observed providing care. A population survey of about 3,000 respondents will also be conducted in areas where vouchers are distributed and similar non-voucher locations. Discussion: A quasi-experimental study will investigate the impact of the voucher approach on improving reproductive health behaviors, reproductive health status, and reducing inequities at the population level and assess effects on access, equity, and quality of care at the facility level. If the voucher scheme in Cambodia is found effective, it may help other countries adopt this approach for improving utilization and access to reproductive health and family planning services

Characterization of the degree of food processing in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition: Application of the Nova classification and validation using selected biomarkers of food processing

Background: Epidemiological studies have demonstrated an association between the degree of food processing in our diet and the risk of various chronic diseases. Much of this evidence is based on the international Nova classification system, which classifies food into four groups based on the type of processing: (1) Unprocessed and minimally processed foods, (2) Processed culinary ingredients, (3) Processed foods, and (4) “Ultra-processed” foods (UPF). The ability of the Nova classification to accurately characterise the degree of food processing across consumption patterns in various European populations has not been investigated so far. Therefore, we applied the Nova coding to data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) in order to characterize the degree of food processing in our diet across European populations with diverse cultural and socio-economic backgrounds and to validate this Nova classification through comparison with objective biomarker measurements. Methods: After grouping foods in the EPIC dataset according to the Nova classification, a total of 476,768 participants in the EPIC cohort (71.5% women; mean age 51 [standard deviation (SD) 9.93]; median age 52 [percentile (p)25–p75: 58–66] years) were included in the cross-sectional analysis that characterised consumption patterns based on the Nova classification. The consumption of food products classified as different Nova categories were compared to relevant circulating biomarkers denoting food processing, measured in various subsamples (N between 417 and 9,460) within the EPIC cohort via (partial) correlation analyses (unadjusted and adjusted by sex, age, BMI and country). These biomarkers included an industrial transfatty acid (ITFA) isomer (elaidic acid; exogenous fatty acid generated during oil hydrogenation and heating) and urinary 4-methyl syringol sulfate (an indicator for the consumption of smoked food and a component of liquid smoke used in UPF). Results: Contributions of UPF intake to the overall diet in % grams/day varied across countries from 7% (France) to 23% (Norway) and their contributions to overall % energy intake from 16% (Spain and Italy) to >45% (in the UK and Norway). Differences were also found between sociodemographic groups; participants in the highest fourth of UPF consumption tended to be younger, taller, less educated, current smokers, more physically active, have a higher reported intake of energy and lower reported intake of alcohol. The UPF pattern as defined based on the Nova classification (group 4;% kcal/day) was positively associated with blood levels of industrial elaidic acid (r = 0.54) and 4-methyl syringol sulfate (r = 0.43). Associations for the other 3 Nova groups with these food processing biomarkers were either inverse or non-significant (e.g., for unprocessed and minimally processed foods these correlations were –0.07 and –0.37 for elaidic acid and 4-methyl syringol sulfate, respectively). Conclusion: These results, based on a large pan-European cohort, demonstrate sociodemographic and geographical differences in the consumption of UPF. Furthermore, these results suggest that the Nova classification can accurately capture consumption of UPF, reflected by stronger correlations with circulating levels of industrial elaidic acid and a syringol metabolite compared to diets high in minimally processed foods

Protected areas: a resource or constraint for local people?

We investigated local people’s perceptions, knowledge, and attitudes toward conservation planning and management in Chitral Gol National Park in North West Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan. A literature review was undertaken to unravel the historic drivers behind the formation of this protected area. Key informant interviews and questionnaire surveys were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of current governance approaches adopted by the park management authorities. Community-based questionnaire surveys and key-informant interviews focused on local communities’ knowledge and awareness of the objectives of the park, people’s role in decision-making, social characteristics, and resource use structures. The information from these surveys was evaluated within the context of good governance and sustainability of park management. Results show a lack of awareness and a low level of participation in protected area management, but a high degree of willingness in the communities to participate in conservation activities. An analysis of the survey data suggests that the park authorities enforce strict protection measures within the park, but this approach lacks a strong vision of sustainability. The surveys reveal that the local people have a very strong sense of belonging to the place and are willing to contribute to the protection of the PA. A large majority of the respondents rely on electronic media as their main source of information, which could potentially form the best medium for conservation campaigning in the region. With these findings in mind, we propose changes to the current governance model for effective and sustainable management of the park in the future

Consumption of ultra-processed foods and risk of multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases: a multinational cohort study

Background It is currently unknown whether ultra-processed foods (UPFs) consumption is associated with a higher incidence of multimorbidity. We examined the relationship of total and subgroup consumption of UPFs with the risk of multimorbidity defined as the co-occurrence of at least two chronic diseases in an individual among first cancer at any site, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes. Methods This was a prospective cohort study including 266,666 participants (60% women) free of cancer, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes at recruitment from seven European countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Foods and drinks consumed over the previous 12 months were assessed at baseline by food-frequency questionnaires and classified according to their degree of processing using Nova classification. We used multistate modelling based on Cox regression to estimate cause-specific hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations of total and subgroups of UPFs with the risk of multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. Findings After a median of 11.2 years of follow-up, 4461 participants (39% women) developed multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. Higher UPF consumption (per 1 standard deviation increment, ∼260 g/day without alcoholic drinks) was associated with an increased risk of multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.12). Among UPF subgroups, associations were most notable for animal-based products (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.12), and artificially and sugar-sweetened beverages (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.12). Other subgroups such as ultra-processed breads and cereals (HR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.94, 1.00) or plant-based alternatives (HR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.91, 1.02) were not associated with risk. Interpretation Our findings suggest that higher consumption of UPFs increases the risk of cancer and cardiometabolic multimorbidity. Funding Austrian Academy of Sciences, Fondation de France, Cancer Research UK, World Cancer Research Fund International, and the Institut National du Cancer

A High-Yield Synthesis of Chalcopyrite CuIn S

We report high-yield and efficient size-controlled syntheses of Chalcopyrite CuInS2 nanoparticles by decomposing molecular single source precursors (SSPs) via microwave irradiation in the presence of 1,2-ethanedithiol at reaction temperatures as low as 100°C and times as short as 30 minutes. The nanoparticles sizes were 1.8 nm to 10.8 nm as reaction temperatures were varied from 100°C to 200°C with the bandgaps from 2.71 eV to 1.28 eV with good size control and high yields (64%–95%). The resulting nanoparticles were analyzed by XRD, UV-Vis, ICP-OES, XPS, SEM, EDS, and HRTEM. Titration studies by 1H NMR using SSP 1 with 1,2-ethanedithiol and benzyl mercaptan were conducted to elucidate the formation of Chalcopyrite CuInS2 nanoparticles

Anatomy of terminal moraine segments and implied lake stability on Ngozumpa Glacier, Nepal, from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT)

This research was supported financially by the European Commission FP7-MC-IEF (PIEF-GA-2012-330805), the University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS), National Geographic Society GRANT #W135-10.Moraine-dammed lakes at debris-covered glaciers are becoming increasingly common and pose significant outburst flood hazards if the dam is breached. While moraine subsurface structure and internal processes are likely to influence dam stability, only few sites have so far been investigated. We conducted electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys at two sites on the terminal moraine complex of the Ngozumpa Glacier, Nepal, to aid assessment of future terminus stability. The resistivity signature of glacier ice at the site (100-15 kΩ m) is more consistent with values measured from cold glacier ice and while this may be feasible, uncertainties in the data inversion introduce ambiguity to this thermal interpretation. However, the ERT data does provide a significant improvement to our knowledge of the subsurface characteristics at these sites, clearly showing the presence (or absence) of glacier ice. Our interpretation is that of a highly complex latero-terminal moraine, resulting from interaction between previous glacier advance, recession and outburst flooding. If the base-level Spillway Lake continues to expand to a fully formed moraine-dammed glacial lake, the degradation of the ice core could have implications for glacial lake outburst risk.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Variability in the analysis of a single neuroimaging dataset by many teams

Data analysis workflows in many scientific domains have become increasingly complex and flexible. To assess the impact of this flexibility on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) results, the same dataset was independently analyzed by 70 teams, testing nine ex-ante hypotheses. The flexibility of analytic approaches is exemplified by the fact that no two teams chose identical workflows to analyze the data. This flexibility resulted in sizeable variation in hypothesis test results, even for teams whose statistical maps were highly correlated at intermediate stages of their analysis pipeline. Variation in reported results was related to several aspects of analysis methodology. Importantly, meta-analytic approaches that aggregated information across teams yielded significant consensus in activated regions across teams. Furthermore, prediction markets of researchers in the field revealed an overestimation of the likelihood of significant findings, even by researchers with direct knowledge of the dataset. Our findings show that analytic flexibility can have substantial effects on scientific conclusions, and demonstrate factors related to variability in fMRI. The results emphasize the importance of validating and sharing complex analysis workflows, and demonstrate the need for multiple analyses of the same data. Potential approaches to mitigate issues related to analytical variability are discussed