Spatial methods for infectious disease outbreak investigations: systematic literature review

Investigations of infectious disease outbreaks are conventionally framed in terms of person, time and place. Although geographic information systems have increased the range of tools available, spatial analyses are used relatively infrequently. We conducted a systematic review of published reports of outbreak investigations worldwide to estimate the prevalence of spatial methods, describe the techniques applied and explore their utility. We identified 80 reports using spatial methods published between 1979 and 2013, ca 0.4% of the total number of published outbreaks. Environmental or waterborne infections were the most commonly investigated, and most reports were from the United Kingdom. A range of techniques were used, including simple dot maps, cluster analyses and modelling approaches. Spatial tools were usefully applied throughout investigations, from initial confirmation of the outbreak to describing and analysing cases and communicating findings. They provided valuable insights that led to public health actions, but there is scope for much wider implementation and development of new methods.</jats:p

Spatially clustered count data provide more efficient search strategies in invasion biology and disease control.

Geographic profiling, a mathematical model originally developed in criminology, is increasingly being used in ecology and epidemiology. Geographic profiling boasts a wide range of applications, such as finding source populations of invasive species or breeding sites of vectors of infectious disease. The model provides a cost-effective approach for prioritising search strategies for source locations and does so via simple data in the form of the positions of each observation, such as individual sightings of invasive species or cases of a disease. In doing so, however, classic geographic profiling approaches fail to make the distinction between those areas containing observed absences and those areas where no data were recorded. Absence data are generated via spatial sampling protocols but are often discarded during the inference process. Here we construct a geographic profiling model that resolves these issues by making inferences via count data - analysing a set of discrete sentinel locations at which the number of encounters has been recorded. Crucially, in our model this number can be zero. We verify the ability of this new model to estimate source locations and other parameters of practical interest via a Bayesian power analysis. We also measure model performance via real-world data in which the model infers breeding locations of mosquitoes in bromeliads in Miami-Dade County, Florida. In both cases, our novel model produces more efficient search strategies by shifting focus from those areas containing observed absences to those with no data, an improvement over existing models that treat these areas equally. Our model makes important improvements upon classic geographic profiling methods, which will significantly enhance real-world efforts to develop conservation management plans and targeted interventions

Plant host and sugar alcohol induced exopolysaccharide biosynthesis in the Burkholderia cepacia complex.

© Society for General Microbiology, 2008. This is an author manuscript that has been accepted for publication in Microbiology, copyright Society for General Microbiology, but has not been copy-edited, formatted or proofed. Cite this article as appearing in Microbiology. This version of the manuscript may not be duplicated or reproduced, other than for personal use or within the rule of 'Fair Use of Copyrighted Materials' (section 17, Title 17, US Code), without permission from the copyright owner, Society for General Microbiology. The Society for General Microbiology disclaims any responsibility or liability for errors or omissions in this version of the manuscript or in any version derived from it by any other parties. The final copy-edited, published article, which is the version of record, can be found at http://mic.sgmjournals.org, and is freely available without a subscription 12 months after publication.The species that presently constitute the Burkholderia cepacia complex (Bcc) have multiple roles; they include soil and water saprophytes, bioremediators, and plant, animal and human pathogens. Since the first description of pathogenicity in the Bcc was based on sour skin rot of onion bulbs, this study returned to this plant host to investigate the onion-associated phenotype of the Bcc. Many Bcc isolates, which were previously considered to be non-mucoid, produced copious amounts of exopolysaccharide (EPS) when onion tissue was provided as the sole nutrient. EPS production was not species-specific, was observed in isolates from both clinical and environmental sources, and did not correlate with the ability to cause maceration of onion tissue. Chemical analysis suggested that the onion components responsible for EPS induction were primarily the carbohydrates sucrose, fructose and fructans. Additional sugars were investigated, and all alcohol sugars tested were able to induce EPS production, in particular mannitol and glucitol. To investigate the molecular basis for EPS biosynthesis, we focused on the highly conserved bce gene cluster thought to be involved in cepacian biosynthesis. We demonstrated induction of the bce gene cluster by mannitol, and found a clear correlation between the inability of representatives of the Burkholderia cenocepacia ET12 lineage to produce EPS and the presence of an 11 bp deletion within the bceB gene, which encodes a glycosyltransferase. Insertional inactivation of bceB in Burkholderia ambifaria AMMD results in loss of EPS production on sugar alcohol media. These novel and surprising insights into EPS biosynthesis highlight the metabolic potential of the Bcc and show that a potential virulence factor may not be detected by routine laboratory culture. Our results also highlight a potential hazard in the use of inhaled mannitol as an osmolyte to improve mucociliary clearance in individuals with cystic fibrosis

Twenty years and counting: epidemiology of an outbreak of isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis in England and Wales, 1995 to 2014

An outbreak of isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis first identified in London has now been ongoing for 20 years, making it the largest drug-resistant outbreak of tuberculosis documented to date worldwide. We identified culture-confirmed cases with indistinguishable molecular strain types and extracted demographic, clinical, microbiological and social risk factor data from surveillance systems. We summarised changes over time and used kernel-density estimation and k-function analysis to assess geographic clustering. From 1995 to 2014, 508 cases were reported, with a declining trend in recent years. Overall, 70% were male (n = 360), 60% born in the United Kingdom (n = 306), 39% white (n = 199), and 26% black Caribbean (n = 134). Median age increased from 25 years in the first 5 years to 42 in the last 5. Approximately two thirds of cases reported social risk factors: 45% drug use (n = 227), 37% prison link (n = 189), 25% homelessness (n = 125) and 13% alcohol dependence (n = 64). Treatment was completed at 12 months by 52% of cases (n = 206), and was significantly lower for those with social risk factors (p < 0.05), but increased over time for all patients (p < 0.05). The outbreak remained focused in north London throughout. Control of this outbreak requires continued efforts to prevent and treat further active cases through targeted screening and enhanced case management

A network approach for managing ecosystem services and improving food and nutrition security on smallholder farms

Smallholder farmers are some of the poorest and most food insecure people on Earth. Their high nutritional and economic reliance on home-grown produce makes them particularly vulnerable to environmental stressors such as pollinator loss or climate change which threaten agricultural productivity. Improving smallholder agriculture in a way that is environmentally sustainable and resilient to climate change is a key challenge of the 21st century. Ecological intensification, whereby ecosystem services are managed to increase agricultural productivity, is a promising solution for smallholders. However, smallholder farms are complex socio-ecological systems with a range of social, ecological and environmental factors interacting to influence ecosystem service provisioning. To truly understand the functioning of a smallholder farm and identify the most effective management options to support household food and nutrition security, a holistic, systems-based understanding is required. In this paper, we propose a network approach to understand, visualise and model the complex interactions occurring among wild species, crops and people on smallholder farms. Specifically, we demonstrate how networks may be used to (a) identify wild species with a key role in supporting, delivering or increasing the resilience of an ecosystem service; (b) quantify the value of an ecosystem service in a way that is relevant to the food and nutrition security of smallholders; and (c) understand the social interactions that influence the management of shared ecosystem services. Using a case study based on data from rural Nepal, we demonstrate how this framework can be used to connect wild plants, pollinators and crops to key nutrients consumed by humans. This allows us to quantify the nutritional value of an ecosystem service and identify the wild plants and pollinators involved in its provision, as well as providing a framework to predict the effects of environmental change on human nutrition. Our framework identifies mechanistic links between ecosystem services and the nutrients consumed by smallholder farmers and highlights social factors that may influence the management of these services. Applying this framework to smallholder farms in a range of socio-ecological contexts may provide new, sustainable and equitable solutions to smallholder food and nutrition security. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article

Dietary Supplementation with Soluble Plantain Non-Starch Polysaccharides Inhibits Intestinal Invasion of Salmonella Typhimurium in the Chicken

Soluble fibres (non-starch polysaccharides, NSP) from edible plants but particularly plantain banana (Musa spp.), have been shown in vitro and ex vivo to prevent various enteric pathogens from adhering to, or translocating across, the human intestinal epithelium, a property that we have termed contrabiotic. Here we report that dietary plantain fibre prevents invasion of the chicken intestinal mucosa by Salmonella. In vivo experiments were performed with chicks fed from hatch on a pellet diet containing soluble plantain NSP (0 to 200 mg/d) and orally infected with S.Typhimurium 4/74 at 8 d of age. Birds were sacrificed 3, 6 and 10 d post-infection. Bacteria were enumerated from liver, spleen and caecal contents. In vitro studies were performed using chicken caecal crypts and porcine intestinal epithelial cells infected with Salmonella enterica serovars following pre-treatment separately with soluble plantain NSP and acidic or neutral polysaccharide fractions of plantain NSP, each compared with saline vehicle. Bacterial adherence and invasion were assessed by gentamicin protection assay. In vivo dietary supplementation with plantain NSP 50 mg/d reduced invasion by S.Typhimurium, as reflected by viable bacterial counts from splenic tissue, by 98.9% (95% CI, 98.1–99.7; P<0.0001). In vitro studies confirmed that plantain NSP (5–10 mg/ml) inhibited adhesion of S.Typhimurium 4/74 to a porcine epithelial cell-line (73% mean inhibition (95% CI, 64–81); P<0.001) and to primary chick caecal crypts (82% mean inhibition (95% CI, 75–90); P<0.001). Adherence inhibition was shown to be mediated via an effect on the epithelial cells and Ussing chamber experiments with ex-vivo human ileal mucosa showed that this effect was associated with increased short circuit current but no change in electrical resistance. The inhibitory activity of plantain NSP lay mainly within the acidic/pectic (homogalacturonan-rich) component. Supplementation of chick feed with plantain NSP was well tolerated and shows promise as a simple approach for reducing invasive salmonellosis

Local host response following an intramammary challenge with Staphylococcus fleurettii and different strains of Staphylococcus chromogenes in dairy heifers

Coagulase-negative staphylococci (CNS) are a common cause of subclinical mastitis in dairy cattle. The CNS inhabit various ecological habitats, ranging between the environment and the host. In order to obtain a better insight into the host response, an experimental infection was carried out in eight healthy heifers in mid-lactation with three different CNS strains: a Staphylococcus fleurettii strain originating from sawdust bedding, an intramammary Staphylococcus chromogenes strain originating from a persistent intramammary infection (S. chromogenes IM) and a S. chromogenes strain isolated from a heifer's teat apex (S. chromogenes TA). Each heifer was inoculated in the mammary gland with 1.0 x 10(6) colony forming units of each bacterial strain (one strain per udder quarter), whereas the remaining quarter was infused with phosphate-buffered saline. Overall, the CNS evoked a mild local host response. The somatic cell count increased in all S. fleurettii-inoculated quarters, although the strain was eliminated within 12 h. The two S. chromogenes strains were shed in larger numbers for a longer period. Bacterial and somatic cell counts, as well as neutrophil responses, were higher after inoculation with S. chromogenes IM than with S. chromogenes TA. In conclusion, these results suggest that S. chromogenes might be better adapted to the mammary gland than S. fleurettii. Furthermore, not all S. chromogenes strains induce the same local host response

Medication administration errors for older people in long-term residential care

Background Older people in long-term residential care are at increased risk of medication errors. The purpose of this study was to evaluate a computerised barcode medication management system designed to improve drug administrations in residential and nursing homes, including comparison of error rates and staff awareness in both settings. Methods All medication administrations were recorded prospectively for 345 older residents in thirteen care homes during a 3-month period using the computerised system. Staff were surveyed to identify their awareness of administration errors prior to system introduction. Overall, 188,249 attempts to administer medication were analysed to determine the prevalence of potential medication administration errors (MAEs). Error classifications included attempts to administer medication at the wrong time, to the wrong person or discontinued medication. Analysis compared data at residential and nursing home level and care and nursing staff groups. Results Typically each resident was exposed to 206 medication administration episodes every month and received nine different drugs. Administration episodes were more numerous (p < 0.01) in nursing homes (226.7 per resident) than in residential homes (198.7). Prior to technology introduction, only 12% of staff administering drugs reported they were aware of administration errors being averted in their care home. Following technology introduction, 2,289 potential MAEs were recorded over three months. The most common MAE was attempting to give medication at the wrong time. On average each resident was exposed to 6.6 potential errors. In total, 90% of residents were exposed to at least one MAE with over half (52%) exposed to serious errors such as attempts to give medication to the wrong resident. MAEs rates were significantly lower (p < 0.01) in residential homes than nursing homes. The level of non-compliance with system alerts was low in both settings (0.075% of administrations) demonstrating virtually complete error avoidance. Conclusion Potentially inappropriate administration of medication is a serious problem in long-term residential care. A computerised barcode system can accurately and automatically detect inappropriate attempts to administer drugs to residents. This tool can reliably be used by care staff as well as nurses to improve quality of care and patient safety

Performance measures for upper gastrointestinal endoscopy:A European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) Quality Improvement Initiative

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