Transition probabilities for general birth-death processes with applications in ecology, genetics, and evolution

A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with $n$ current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate $\lambda_n$ and a particle dies with instantaneous rate $\mu_n$. Currently no robust and efficient method exists to evaluate the finite-time transition probabilities in a general birth-death process with arbitrary birth and death rates. In this paper, we first revisit the theory of continued fractions to obtain expressions for the Laplace transforms of these transition probabilities and make explicit an important derivation connecting transition probabilities and continued fractions. We then develop an efficient algorithm for computing these probabilities that analyzes the error associated with approximations in the method. We demonstrate that this error-controlled method agrees with known solutions and outperforms previous approaches to computing these probabilities. Finally, we apply our novel method to several important problems in ecology, evolution, and genetics

Can discrete time make continuous space look discrete?

Van Bendegem has recently offered an argument to the effect that, if time is discrete, then there should exist a correspondence between the motions of massive bodies and a discrete geometry. On this basis, he concludes that, even if space is continuous, it should nonetheless appear discrete. This paper examines the two possible ways of making sense of that correspondence, and shows that in neither case van Bendegem's conclusion logically follows

Statins in Candidemia: clinical outcomes from a matched cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>HMG CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) in patients with bacteremic sepsis have shown significant survival benefits in several studies. There is no data on the effect of statins in candidemic patients, however in-vitro models suggest that statins interfere with ergesterol formation in the wall of yeasts.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This retrospective matched- cohort study from 1/2003 to 12/2006 evaluated the effects of statins on patients with candidemia within intensive care units. Statin-users had candidemia as a cause of their systemic inflammatory response and were on statins throughout their antifungal therapy, while non-statin users were matched based on age +/- 5 years and co-morbid factors. Primary analysis was 30-day survival or discharge using bivariable comparisons. Multivariable comparisons were completed using conditional logistic regression. All variables with a p-value less than 0.10 in the bivariable comparisons were considered for inclusion in the conditional logistic model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 15 statin-users and 30 non-statin users that met inclusion criteria, all with similar demographics and co-morbid conditions except the statin group had more coronary artery disease (P < 0.01) and peripheral vascular disease (P = 0.03) and lower median APCAHE II scores (14.6 vs 17, p = 0.03). There were no differences in duration of candidemia, antifungal therapy or <it>Candida </it>species between the groups. Statins were associated with lower mortality on bivariable (OR 0.09, 95% CI 0.11-0.75, p = 0.03) and multivariable (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.02-2.4, p = 0.21) analyses compared to controls; although, in the latter the protective effect lacked statistical signficance.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In our small, single-center matched-cohort study, statins may provide a survival benefit in candidemia, however further studies are warranted to validate and further explore this association.</p

Signalling plasticity and energy saving in a tropical bushcricket

Males of the tropical bushcricket Mecopoda elongata synchronize their acoustic advertisement signals (chirps) in interactions with other males. However, synchrony is not perfect and distinct leader and follower roles are often maintained. In entrainment experiments in which conspecific signals were presented at various rates, chirps displayed as follower showed notable signal plasticity. Follower chirps were shortened by reducing the number and duration of syllables, especially those of low and medium amplitude. The degree of shortening depended on the time delay between leader and follower signals and the sound level of the entraining stimulus. The same signal plasticity was evident in male duets, with the effect that the last syllables of highest amplitude overlapped more strongly. Respiratory measurements showed that solo singing males producing higher chirp rates suffered from higher metabolic costs compared to males singing at lower rates. In contrast, respiratory rate was rather constant during a synchronous entrainment to a conspecific signal repeated at various rates. This allowed males to maintain a steady duty cycle, associated with a constant metabolic rate. Results are discussed with respect to the preference for leader signals in females and the possible benefits males may gain by overlapping their follower signals in a chorus

Studying the Underlying Event in Drell-Yan and High Transverse Momentum Jet Production at the Tevatron

We study the underlying event in proton-antiproton collisions by examining the behavior of charged particles (transverse momentum pT > 0.5 GeV/c, pseudorapidity |\eta| < 1) produced in association with large transverse momentum jets (~2.2 fb-1) or with Drell-Yan lepton-pairs (~2.7 fb-1) in the Z-boson mass region (70 < M(pair) < 110 GeV/c2) as measured by CDF at 1.96 TeV center-of-mass energy. We use the direction of the lepton-pair (in Drell-Yan production) or the leading jet (in high-pT jet production) in each event to define three regions of \eta-\phi space; toward, away, and transverse, where \phi is the azimuthal scattering angle. For Drell-Yan production (excluding the leptons) both the toward and transverse regions are very sensitive to the underlying event. In high-pT jet production the transverse region is very sensitive to the underlying event and is separated into a MAX and MIN transverse region, which helps separate the hard component (initial and final-state radiation) from the beam-beam remnant and multiple parton interaction components of the scattering. The data are corrected to the particle level to remove detector effects and are then compared with several QCD Monte-Carlo models. The goal of this analysis is to provide data that can be used to test and improve the QCD Monte-Carlo models of the underlying event that are used to simulate hadron-hadron collisions.Comment: Submitted to Phys.Rev.

Measurement of Lifetime and Decay-Width Difference in B0s -> J/psi phi Decays

We measure the mean lifetime, tau=2/(Gamma_L+Gamma_H), and the width difference, DeltaGamma=Gamma_L-Gamma_H, of the light and heavy mass eigenstates of the B0s meson, B0sL and B0sH, in B0s -> J/psi phi decays using 1.7 fb^-1 of data collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron ppbar collider. Assuming CP conservation, a good approximation for the B0s system in the Standard Model, we obtain DeltaGamma = 0.076^+0.059_-0.063 (stat.) +- 0.006 (syst.) ps^-1 and tau = 1.52 +- 0.04 (stat.) +- 0.02 (syst.) ps, the most precise measurements to date. Our constraints on the weak phase and DeltaGamma are consistent with CP conservation. Dedicated to the memory of our dear friend and colleague, Michael P. Schmid

Limits on Anomalous Triple Gauge Couplings in ppbar Collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV

We present a search for anomalous triple gauge couplings (ATGC) in WW and WZ boson production. The boson pairs are produced in ppbar collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV, and the data sample corresponds to 350 pb-1 of integrated luminosity collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. In this search one W decays to leptons, and the other boson (W or Z) decays hadronically. Combining with a previously published CDF measurement of Wgamma boson production yields ATGC limits of -0.18 < lambda < 0.17 and -0.46 < Delta kappa < 0.39 at the 95% confidence level, using a cut-off scale Lambda=1.5 TeV.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Forward-Backward Asymmetry in Top Quark Production in ppbar Collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV

Reconstructable final state kinematics and charge assignment in the reaction ppbar->ttbar allows tests of discrete strong interaction symmetries at high energy. We define frame dependent forward-backward asymmetries for the outgoing top quark in both the ppbar and ttbar rest frames, correct for experimental distortions, and derive values at the parton-level. Using 1.9/fb of ppbar collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV recorded with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron, we measure forward-backward top quark production asymmetries in the ppbar and ttbar rest frames of A_{FB,pp} = 0.17 +- 0.08 and A_{FB,tt} = 0.24 +- 0.14.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, submitted to Phys.Rev.Lett, corrected references and change of tex

Measurement of the W+W−W^+W^- Production Cross Section and Search for Anomalous WWγWW\gamma and WWZWWZ Couplings in ppˉp \bar p Collisions at s=1.96\sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV

This Letter describes the current most precise measurement of the $W$ boson pair production cross section and most sensitive test of anomalous $WW\gamma$ and $WWZ$ couplings in $p \bar p$ collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV. The $WW$ candidates are reconstructed from decays containing two charged leptons and two neutrinos, where the charged leptons are either electrons or muons. Using data collected by the CDF II detector from 3.6 fb$^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity, a total of 654 candidate events are observed with an expected background contribution of $320 \pm 47$ events. The measured total cross section is $\sigma (p \bar p \to W^+ W^- + X) = 12.1 \pm 0.9 \textrm{(stat)} ^{+1.6}_{-1.4} \textrm{(syst)}$ pb, which is in good agreement with the standard model prediction. The same data sample is used to place constraints on anomalous $WW\gamma$ and $WWZ$ couplings.Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev. Let