8 research outputs found

    Global Carbon Budget 2020

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    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2_{2}) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2_{2} emissions (EFOS_{FOS}) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC_{LUC}), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2_{2} concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM_{ATM}) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2_{2} sink (SOCEAN_{OCEAN}) and terrestrial CO2_{2} sink (SLAND_{LAND}) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM_{IM}), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2010–2019), EFOS_{FOS} was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr1^{-1} excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC_{LUC} was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr1^{-1}. For the same decade, GATM_{ATM} was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr1^{-1} (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr1_{-1}), SOCEAN_{OCEAN} 2.5 ±  0.6 GtC yr1^{-1}, and SLAND_{LAND} 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr1^{-1}, with a budget imbalance BIM_{IM} of −0.1 GtC yr1^{-1} indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in EFOS_{FOS} was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr1^{-1} excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr1^{-1} when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC_{LUC} was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr1^{-1}, for total anthropogenic CO2_{2} emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr1^{-1} (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2_{2}). Also for 2019, GATM_{ATM} was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr1^{-1} (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr1^{-1}), SOCEAN_{OCEAN} was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr1^{-1}, and SLAND_{LAND} was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr1^{-1}, with a BIM_{IM} of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2_{2} concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in EFOS_{FOS} relative to 2019 of about −7 % (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of −6 %, −7 %, −7 % (−3 % to −11 %), and −13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr1^{-1} persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2_{2} fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2_{2} flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020)

    Global Carbon Budget 2020

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    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5 ±  0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of −0.1 GtC yr−1 indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2019, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about −7 % (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of −6 %, −7 %, −7 % (−3 % to −11 %), and −13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020)

    Aspects of Source-Term Modeling for Vortex-Generator Induced Flows

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    Vortex generators (VGs) are awidespread means of passive flowcontrol, capable of yielding significant performance improvements to lift-generating surfaces (e.g. wind-turbine blades and airplane wings), by delaying boundary-layer separation. These small vanetype structures, which are typically arranged in arrays, trigger the formation of small vortices in the boundary layer. The flow circulation induced by these vortices causes the near-wall flow to be re-energized, thereby reducing the susceptibility of the boundary layer to separate from the surface.Aerodynamic

    Towards a Multi-Fidelity Approach for CFD Simulations of Vortex Generator Arrays

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    This paper is the starting point for the development of a multi-fidelity modeling approach for vortex generators (VG) arrays, where a fully resolved VG model will be coupled with an approximate model in order to improve both accuracy and flexibility without increasing the required computational cost. As a first step thereto, an analysis of the ability of the BAY-model to simulate incompressible flows around a VG on a flat plate has been performed. Results are presented for several turbulence models and using different cell selection approaches, where comparison is made with fully resolved VG results. In addition to a coarse uniform mesh, the BAY-model has been evaluated on a densely gridded mesh in order to distinguish between model and mesh related discrepancies.Aerodynamics, Wind Energy & PropulsionAerospace Engineerin

    Effectiveness of Side Force Models for Flow Simulations Downstream of Vortex Generators

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    Vortex generators (VGs) are a widely used means of flow control, and predictions of their influence are vital for efficient designs. However, accurate CFD simulations of their effect on the flow field by means of a body fitted mesh are computationally expensive. Therefore the BAY and jBAY models, which represent the effect of VGs on the flow using source terms in the momentum equations, are popular in industry. In this contribution we examine the ability of the BAY and jBAY model to provide accurate flow field results by looking at boundary layer properties close behind VGs. The results are compared with both body fitted mesh and other source term model RANS simulations of 3D incompressible flows, over flat plate and airfoil geometries. We show the influence of mesh resolution and domain of application on the accuracy of the models and investigate the influence of the source term on the generated flow field. Our results demonstrate the grid dependence of the models and indicate the presence of model errors. Furthermore we find that the total applied force has a larger influence on both the intensity and shape of the created vortex than the distribution of the source term over the cells.AerodynamicsEducation and Student Affair

    Adjoint-based optimization of a source-term representation of vortex generators

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    An optimization approach is presented that can be used to find the optimal source term distribution in order to represent a high-fidelity vortex-generator (VG) induced flow field on a coarse mesh. The ap- proach employs the continuous adjoint of the problem, from which an exact sensitivity is calculated and used in combination with a trust-region method to find the source term which minimizes the deviation with respect to the reference velocity field. The algorithm is applied to an incompressible flow over a rectangular VG and VG pair on a flat plate and compared to results obtained with the jBAY-model and a body-fitted mesh simulation. The results indicate that a highly accurate flow, yielding only minimal errors with respect to the shape factor, circulation and vortex core, can be obtained on coarse meshes when adding a source term to only a limited number of cells. This approach therefore demonstrates the potential of source-term models to include the effects of VGs in computations of large-scale geometries. It also allows quantification of the achievable accuracy on a particular mesh and the calculation of the source term which is optimal for a specific situation. Furthermore, the optimization approach can be used to diagnose the deficiencies of an existing source-term VG model, in this work the jBAY model.AerodynamicsEducation and Student Affair
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