Eurodelta multi-model simulated and observed particulate matter trends in Europe in the period of 1990-2010

The Eurodelta-Trends (EDT) multi-model experiment, aimed at assessing the efficiency of emission mitigation measures in improving air quality in Europe during 1990-2010, was designed to answer a series of questions regarding European pollution trends; i.e. were there significant trends detected by observations? Do the models manage to reproduce observed trends? How close is the agreement between the models and how large are the deviations from observations? In this paper, we address these issues with respect to particulate matter (PM) pollution. An in-depth trend analysis has been performed for PM10 and PM2.5 for the period of 2000-2010, based on results from six chemical transport models and observational data from the EMEP (Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe) monitoring network. Given harmonization of set-up and main input data, the differences in model results should mainly result from differences in the process formulations within the models themselves, and the spread in the model-simulated trends could be regarded as an indicator for modelling uncertainty.The model ensemble simulations indicate overall decreasing trends in PM10 and PM2.5 from 2000 to 2010, with the total reductions of annual mean concentrations by between 2 and 5 (7 for PM10) mu g m(-3) (or between 10 % and 30 %) across most of Europe (by 0.5-2 mu g m(-3) in Fennoscandia, the north-west of Russia and eastern Europe) during the studied period. Compared to PM2.5, relative PM10 trends are weaker due to large interannual variability of natural coarse PM within the former. The changes in the concentrations of PM individual components are in general consistent with emission reductions. There is reasonable agreement in PM trends estimated by the individual models, with the inter-model variability below 30 %-40 % over most of Europe, increasing to 50 %-60 % in the northern and eastern parts of the EDT domain.Averaged over measurement sites (26 for PM10 and 13 for PM2.5), the mean ensemble-simulated trends are - 0.24 and -0.22 mu g m(-3) yr(-1) for PM10 and PM2.5, which are somewhat weaker than the observed trends of - 0.35 and -0.40 mu g m(-3) yr(-1) respectively, partly due to model underestimation of PM concentrations. The correspondence is better in relative PM10 and PM2.5 trends, which are -1.7 % yr(-1) and -2.0 % yr(-1) from the model ensemble and -2.1 % yr(-1) and -2.9 % yr(-1) from the observations respectively. The observations identify significant trends (at the 95 % confidence level) for PM10 at 56 % of the sites and for PM2.5 at 36 % of the sites, which is somewhat less that the fractions of significant modelled trends. Further, we find somewhat smaller spatial variability of modelled PM trends with respect to the observed ones across Europe and also within individual countries.The strongest decreasing PM trends and the largest number of sites with significant trends are found for the summer season, according to both the model ensemble and observations. The winter PM trends are very weak and mostly insignificant. Important reasons for that are the very modest reductions and even increases in the emissions of primary PM from residential heating in winter. It should be kept in mind that all findings regarding modelled versus observed PM trends are limited to the regions where the sites are located.The analysis reveals considerable variability of the role of the individual aerosols in PM10 trends across European countries. The multi-model simulations, supported by available observations, point to decreases in SO42- concentrations playing an overall dominant role. Also, we see relatively large contributions of the trends of NH4+ and NO3- to PM10 decreasing trends in Germany, Denmark, Poland and the Po Valley, while the reductions of primary PM emissions appear to be a dominant factor in bringing down PM10 in France, Norway, Portugal, Greece and parts of the UK and Russia. Further discussions are given with respect to emission uncertainties (including the implications of not accounting for forest fires and natural mineral dust by some of the models) and the effect of inter-annual meteorological variability on the trend analysis.Peer reviewe

Final Report The potential for cost-effective air emission reductions from international shipping through designation of further Emission Control Areas in EU waters with focus on the Mediterranean Sea

This study explores the impacts of alternative emission control interventions for international shipping on the European Seas on relevant air pollutant emissions, examines their consequence on ambient air quality in Europe and the neighbouring regions, and explores the resulting improvements of human health. It estimates the costs of the various policy interventions, and compares them with monetized benefits on human health and other impacts. It is found that further controls of SO₂ emissions, e.g., through SO₂ emission control areas, could deliver rather fast benefits, and avoid by 2030 up to 4000 cases of premature deaths annually, and 8000 in 2050. In the longer run, by 2050, application of Tier III NOx standards could double the health benefits. Even when using the lower (most conservative) health valuation, all reduction measures examined in this report emerged as cost-effective, with monetized benefits exceeding emission control costs typically by a factor of 6 in 2030 and by a factor of 12 in 2050. Designation of the Mediterranean Sea as an Emission Control Area could by 2030 cut emissions of SO2 and NOx from international shipping by 80 and 20 percent, respectively, compared to current legislation. These additional emission reductions could avoid 4,100 cases of premature deaths in 2030 and more than 10,000 annual premature deaths in 2050. Even with the most conservative assumptions for health valuation, monetized benefits are on average 4.4 times higher than the costs in 2030 and 7.5 times higher in 2050

Movement of pulsed resource subsidies from kelp forests to deep fjords

Resource subsidies in the form of allochthonous primary production drive secondary production in many ecosystems, often sustaining diversity and overall productivity. Despite their importance in structuring marine communities, there is little understanding of how subsidies move through juxtaposed habitats and into recipient communities. We investigated the transport of detritus from kelp forests to a deep Arctic fjord (northern Norway). We quantified the seasonal abundance and size structure of kelp detritus in shallow subtidal (0‒12 m), deep subtidal (12‒85 m), and deep fjord (400‒450 m) habitats using a combination of camera surveys, dive observations, and detritus collections over 1 year. Detritus formed dense accumulations in habitats adjacent to kelp forests, and the timing of depositions coincided with the discrete loss of whole kelp blades during spring. We tracked these blades through the deep subtidal and into the deep fjord, and showed they act as a short-term resource pulse transported over several weeks. In deep subtidal regions, detritus consisted mostly of fragments and its depth distribution was similar across seasons (50% of total observations). Tagged pieces of detritus moved slowly out of kelp forests (displaced 4‒50 m (mean 11.8 m ± 8.5 SD) in 11‒17 days, based on minimum estimates from recovered pieces), and most (75%) variability in the rate of export was related to wave exposure and substrate. Tight resource coupling between kelp forests and deep fjords indicate that changes in kelp abundance would propagate through to deep fjord ecosystems, with likely consequences for the ecosystem functioning and services they provide.acceptedVersio

Reducing global air pollution: the scope for further policy interventions

Over the last decades, energy and pollution control policies combined with structural changes in the economy decoupled emission trends from economic growth, increasingly also in the developing world. It is found that effective implementation of the presently decided national pollution control regulations should allow further economic growth without major deterioration of ambient air quality, but will not be enough to reduce pollution levels in many world regions. A combination of ambitious policies focusing on pollution controls, energy and climate, agricultural production systems and addressing human consumption habits could drastically improve air quality throughout the world. By 2040, mean population exposure to PM2.5 from anthropogenic sources could be reduced by about 75% relative to 2015 and brought well below the WHO guideline in large areas of the world. While the implementation of the proposed technical measures is likely to be technically feasible in the future, the transformative changes of current practices will require strong political will, supported by a full appreciation of the multiple benefits. Improved air quality would avoid a large share of the current 3–9 million cases of premature deaths annually. At the same time, the measures that deliver clean air would also significantly reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and contribute to multiple UN sustainable development goals

Understanding why adult participants at the World Senior Games choose a healthy diet

BACKGROUND: Identifying those seniors most likely to adopt a healthy diet, the relative importance they place on certain perceived benefits associated with a healthy diet, and whether these perceived benefits are associated with selected demographic, lifestyle, and health history variables is important for directing effective dietary health promotion programs. METHODS: Analyses are based on a cross-sectional convenience sample of 670 seniors aged 50 years and older at the 2002 World Senior Games in St. George, Utah. Data are assessed using frequencies, bivariate analysis, analysis of variance, and multiple logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Fruit and vegetable consumption was significantly higher in individuals aged 70–79, in women, in those not overweight or obese, and in those with excellent overall health. Dietary fiber consumption was significantly higher in former or never smokers, current and previous alcohol drinkers, in those not overweight or obese, and in those with excellent health. The strongest motivating factors identified for adopting a healthy diet were to improve the quality of life, to increase longevity, and to prevent disease. Of intermediate importance were the need to feel a sense of control and to satisfy likes or dislikes. Least important were the desire to experience a higher level of spirituality, social reasons, and peer acceptance. CONCLUSION: Seniors who have adopted a healthy diet are more likely to have chosen that behavior because of perceived health benefits than for personal and social benefits. Overweight or obese individuals and those in poor health were less likely to be engaged in healthy eating behavior and require special attention by dieticians and public health professionals

Global and regional trends of atmospheric sulfur

The profound changes in global SO2 emissions over the last decades have affected atmospheric composition on a regional and global scale with large impact on air quality, atmospheric deposition and the radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. Reproduction of historical atmospheric pollution levels based on global aerosol models and emission changes is crucial to prove that such models are able to predict future scenarios. Here, we analyze consistency of trends in observations of sulfur components in air and precipitation from major regional networks and estimates from six different global aerosol models from 1990 until 2015. There are large interregional differences in the sulfur trends consistently captured by the models and observations, especially for North America and Europe. Europe had the largest reductions in sulfur emissions in the first part of the period while the highest reduction came later in North America and East Asia. The uncertainties in both the emissions and the representativity of the observations are larger in Asia. However, emissions from East Asia clearly increased from 2000 to 2005 followed by a decrease, while in India a steady increase over the whole period has been observed and modelled. The agreement between a bottom-up approach, which uses emissions and process-based chemical transport models, with independent observations gives an improved confidence in the understanding of the atmospheric sulfur budget

Alpine ice evidence of a three-fold increase in atmospheric iodine deposition since 1950 in Europe due to increasing oceanic emissions

Iodine is an important nutrient and a significant sink of tropospheric ozone, a climate-forcing gas and air pollutant. Ozone interacts with seawater iodide, leading to volatile inorganic iodine release that likely represents the largest source of atmospheric iodine. Increasing ozone concentrations since the preindustrial period imply that iodine chemistry and its associated ozone destruction is now substantially more active. However, the lack of historical observations of ozone and iodine means that such estimates rely primarily on model calculations. Here we use seasonally resolved records from an Alpine ice core to investigate 20th century changes in atmospheric iodine. After carefully considering possible postdepositional changes in the ice core record, we conclude that iodine deposition over the Alps increased by at least a factor of 3 from 1950 to the 1990s in the summer months, with smaller increases during the winter months. We reproduce these general trends using a chemical transport model and show that they are due to increased oceanic iodine emissions, coupled to a change in iodine speciation over Europe from enhanced nitrogen oxide emissions. The model underestimates the increase in iodine deposition by a factor of 2, however, which may be due to an underestimate in the 20th century ozone increase. Our results suggest that iodine's impact on the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere accelerated over the 20th century and show a coupling between anthropogenic pollution and the availability of iodine as an essential nutrient to the terrestrial biosphere