A machine-learning based bio-psycho-social model for the prediction of non-obstructive and obstructive coronary artery disease

Background: Mechanisms of myocardial ischemia in obstructive and non-obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD), and the interplay between clinical, functional, biological and psycho-social features, are still far to be fully elucidated. Objectives: To develop a machine-learning (ML) model for the supervised prediction of obstructive versus non-obstructive CAD. Methods: From the EVA study, we analysed adults hospitalized for IHD undergoing conventional coronary angiography (CCA). Non-obstructive CAD was defined by a stenosis < 50% in one or more vessels. Baseline clinical and psycho-socio-cultural characteristics were used for computing a Rockwood and Mitnitski frailty index, and a gender score according to GENESIS-PRAXY methodology. Serum concentration of inflammatory cytokines was measured with a multiplex flow cytometry assay. Through an XGBoost classifier combined with an explainable artificial intelligence tool (SHAP), we identified the most influential features in discriminating obstructive versus non-obstructive CAD. Results: Among the overall EVA cohort (n = 509), 311 individuals (mean age 67 ± 11 years, 38% females; 67% obstructive CAD) with complete data were analysed. The ML-based model (83% accuracy and 87% precision) showed that while obstructive CAD was associated with higher frailty index, older age and a cytokine signature characterized by IL-1β, IL-12p70 and IL-33, non-obstructive CAD was associated with a higher gender score (i.e., social characteristics traditionally ascribed to women) and with a cytokine signature characterized by IL-18, IL-8, IL-23. Conclusions: Integrating clinical, biological, and psycho-social features, we have optimized a sex- and gender-unbiased model that discriminates obstructive and non-obstructive CAD. Further mechanistic studies will shed light on the biological plausibility of these associations. Clinical trial registration: NCT02737982

Plant–environment interactions through a functional traits perspective: a review of Italian studies

Italy is among the European countries with the greatest plant diversity due to both a great environmental heterogeneity and a long history of man–environment interactions. Trait-based approaches to ecological studies have developed greatly over recent decades worldwide, although several issues concerning the relationships between plant functional traits and the environment still lack sufficient empirical evaluation. To draw insights on the association between plant functional traits and direct and indirect human and natural pressures on the environmental drivers, this article summarizes the existing knowledge on this topic by reviewing the results of studies performed in Italy adopting a functional trait approach on vascular plants, bryophytes and lichens. Although we recorded trait measurements for 1418 taxa, our review highlighted some major gaps in plant traits knowledge: Mediterranean ecosystems are poorly represented; traits related to belowground organs are still overlooked; traits measurements for bryophytes and lichens are lacking. Finally, intraspecific variation has been little studied at community level so far. We conclude by highlighting the need for approaches evaluating trait–environment relationship at large spatial and temporal scales and the need of a more effective contribution to online databases to tie more firmly Italian researchers to international scientific networks on plant traits

Habitat conservation state and plant diversity respond to different drivers in semi-natural grasslands

Questions: Semi-natural habitats are threatened by shifts in management with worrying effects on multiple facets of biodiversity. We revisited sites once representing a reference for a calcareous semi-natural grassland habitat aiming to: (a) identify the drivers of taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity, and habitat conservation state; (b) assess the role of characteristic and derived diversity in determining these patterns; and (c) discuss the possibility of reconciling the goals of habitat conservation and enhancement of different facets of plant diversity. Location: Seven sites along the Apennines (Italy), from Mt. Catria (43.46206° N, 12.70397° E) to Mt. Alpi (40.11768° N, 15.98341° E). Methods: For 132 revisited plots, we calculated vascular plant taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity using Hill numbers, and used boosted regression trees to investigate their response to the compositional dissimilarity from historical plots, to grazing intensity and to environmental variables. We identified characteristic and derived diversity and summarized them in an index of habitat conservation state whose drivers were investigated using the same approach. Results: Plant diversity was influenced by the site, whereas the habitat conservation state responded more markedly to vegetation type. Grazing intensity, slope and soil variables drove taxonomic and functional diversity, and the habitat conservation state, with some differences in their relative importance. Phylogenetic diversity responded only partly to grazing intensity, while it showed a major response to increasing temperatures. Conclusions: Patterns and drivers of different facets of plant diversity partially differ from those of the habitat conservation state, suggesting that the management of semi-natural habitats should be carefully tailored on specific conservation objectives. Generalized actions on grazing regimes and litter removal can promote habitat conservation, whereas the outcomes of these actions for plant diversity may differ across sites. Identifying areas particularly subjected to land-use changes and/or climate warming may drive conservation actions

Nova metodologija za oceno časovnih sprememb vrstne sestave polnaravnih suhih travišč na osnovi terenskih podatkov s severnih Apeninov

In Europe, the management of semi-natural grasslands is changing steadily in extent and intensity. These changes represent a serious threat to one of the most species-rich habitats in Europe; therefore, the related shifts in species composition should be assessed by means of sound scientific. We describe a new methodology aimed at: (i) quantifying the temporal changes in vascular plant species composition of semi-natural grasslands; (ii) identifying the environmental and management variables that drive patterns of change. Our approach consists of a diachronic analysis based on historical phytosociological data associated with detailed vegetation maps. To describe and test our methodology, in 2013 we re-visited 24 historical plots of Bromus erectus grasslands that were first sampled in 1982. To designate the new sampling sites, we combined the topographic and typological information available for the historical plots with the spatial information of the associated map. The degree of change in species composition was calculated through ordination techniques; multivariate distances were used in a regression analysis to identify the environmental variables responsible for patterns of compositional change. Our worked example demonstrated that species composition has changed significantly in the last 30 years, with patterns that have been substantially influenced by topography and landscape structure.Gospodarjenje s pol naravnimi travišči se v Evropi spreminja po obsegu in po intenzivnosti. Spremembe predstavljajo resno grožnjo enim vrstno najbolj bogatih habitatov v Evropi, zato je potrebno ocenjevati spremembe v vrstni sestavi z znanstveno metodo. Opisujemo novo metodologijo, ki stremi h (i) kvantifikaciji časovnih sprememb v vrstni sestavi pol naravnih travišč ter (ii) opredelitvi dejavnikov okolja in gospodarjenja, ki vodijo v spremembe. Naš pristop temelji na diakronični analizi historičnih fitocenoloških podatkov v povezavi z natančnimi vegetacijskimi kartami. Za opis in preverjanje metodologije smo leta 2013 ponovno obiskali 24 starejših ploskev travišč z vrsto Bromus erectus, mi smo jih prvič vzorčili leta 1982. Za izbiro novih vzorčnih mest smo kombinirali topografske in tipološke informacije, ki so na voljo za starejše ploskve, s prostorskimi informacijami na povezani karti. Stopnjo sprememb vrstne sestave smo izračunali z ordinacijskimi metodami; uporabili smo multivariatne razdalje v regresijski analizi za opredelitev okoljskih dejavnikov odgovornih za vzorec sprememb vrstne sestave. Z našim primerom smo pokazali, da se je vrstna sestava v zadnjih 30 letih značilno spremenila, na vzorec sprememb pa sta bistveno vplivala topografija in krajinska sestava

Rastlinski Svet Dolomitov

In Europe, the management of semi-natural grasslands is changing steadily in extent and intensity. These changes represent a serious threat to one of the most species-rich habitats in Europe; therefore, the related shifts in species composition should be assessed by means of sound scientific. We describe a new methodology aimed at: (i) quantifying the temporal changes in vascular plant species composition of semi-natural grasslands; (ii) identifying the environmental and management variables that drive patterns of change. Our approach consists of a diachronic analysis based on historical phytosociological data associated with detailed vegetation maps. To describe and test our methodology, in 2013 we re-visited 24 historical plots of Bromus erectus grasslands that were first sampled in 1982. To designate the new sampling sites, we combined the topographic and typological information available for the historical plots with the spatial information of the associated map. The degree of change in species composition was calculated through ordination techniques; multivariate distances were used in a regression analysis to identify the environmental variables responsible for patterns of compositional change. Our worked example demonstrated that species composition has changed significantly in the last 30 years, with patterns that have been substantially influenced by topography and landscape structure

Changes in plant diversity and carbon stocks along a succession from semi-natural grassland to submediterranean Quercus cerris L. woodland in Central Italy

Aims: The majority of research on the diversity-productivity relationship has utilized aboveground plant biomass as a measure of overall ecosystem productivity and investigated successions with species-poor early stages. During this study we modelled patterns of plant diversity and carbon pools along a succession from pasture abandonment to submediterranean Quercus cerris woodland and investigated ecosystem productivity using biomass and soil carbon. Study area: The hilly-mountainous area of Tolfa in Central Italy. Methods: We used chronosequences to analyse changes in vascular plant species richness and composition across successional stages and along a gradient of productivity (i.e. of increasing carbon stocks). To test possible differences across successional stages species richness and carbon pool data were analysed through analysis of variance. Mixed model regression analyses were used to test the effect of the amount of the carbon stocks on the variation in plant species richness and composition. Results: We found a high variation in plant species richness along the succession, with grasslands and newly formed woods showing the highest values. The amount of carbon in biomass and soil increased along the succession, even if soil carbon did not differ significantly among successional stages. Plant species richness was not dependent on the variation in the carbon pools (i.e. biomass and soil carbon) along the succession, while plant species composition significantly responded to this variation. Conclusions: Our results strongly support the need to manage semi-natural ecosystems through a multi-functional perspective that values both carbon sequestration and biodiversity

Current European policies are unlikely to jointly foster carbon sequestration and protect biodiversity

International audienc