In the Era of Systematic Reviews, Does the Size of an Individual Trial Still Matter?

Background to the debate: Systematic reviews that combine high-quality evidence from several trials are now widely considered to be at the top of the hierarchy of clinical evidence. Given the primacy of systematic reviews—and the fact that individual clinical trials rarely provide definitive answers to a clinical research question—some commentators question whether the sample size calculation for an individual trial still matters. Others point out that small trials can still be potentially misleading

Snake prices and crocodile appetites: Aquatic wildlife supply and demand on Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia

Commercial trade is a major driver of over-exploitation of wild species, but the pattern of demand and how it responds to changes in supply is poorly understood. Here we explore the markets for snakes from Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia to evaluate future exploitation scenarios, identify entry points for conservation and, more generally, to illustrate the value of multi-scale analysis of markets to traded wildlife conservation. In Cambodia, the largest driver of snake exploitation is the domestic trade in snakes as crocodile food. We estimate that farmed crocodiles consume between 2.7 and 12.2 million snakes per year. The market price for crocodiles has been in decline since 2003, which, combined with rising prices for their food, has led to a reduced frequency of feeding and closure of small farms. The large farms that generate a disproportionate amount of the demand for snakes continue to operate in anticipation of future market opportunities, and preferences for snakes could help maintain demand if market prices for crocodiles rise to pre 2003 levels. In the absence of a sustained demand from crocodile farms, it is also possible that alternative markets will develop, such as one for human snack food. The demand for snakes, however, also depends on the availability of substitute resources, principally fish. The substitutability and low price elasticity of demand offers a relatively sustainable form of consumerism. Given the nature of these market drivers, addressing consumer preferences and limiting the protection of snakes to their breeding season are likely to be the most effective tools for conservation. This study highlights the importance of understanding the structure of markets and the behaviour of consumer demand prior to implementing regulations on wildlife hunting and trade

Nematode Symbiont for Photorhabdus asymbiotica

Photorhabdus asymbiotica is an emerging bacterial pathogen that causes locally invasive soft tissue and disseminated bacteremic infections in the United States and Australia. Although the source of infection was previously unknown, we report that the bacterium is found in a symbiotic association with an insect-pathogenic soil nematode of the genus Heterorhabditis

Epidemiological and Molecular Characterization of an Invasive Group A Streptococcus32.2 Outbreak

Anemm32.2 invasive group A streptococcus (iGAS) outbreak occurred in Liverpool from January 2010 to September 2012. This genotype had not previously been identified in Liverpool, but was responsible for 32% (14/44) of all iGAS cases reported during this time period. We performed a case-case comparison ofemm32.2 iGAS cases with non-emm32.2 control iGAS cases identified in the Liverpool population over the same time period to assess patient risk factors foremm32.2 iGAS infection. Theemm32.2 iGAS cases were confined to the adult population. We show that homelessness, intravenous drug use, and alcohol abuse predisposed patients toemm32.2 iGAS disease; however, no obvious epidemiological linkage between the patients withemm32.2 iGAS could be identified. Comparative whole-genome sequencing analysis ofemm32.2 iGAS and non-emm32.2 control isolates was also performed to identify pathogen factors which might have driven the outbreak. We identified 19 genes, five of which had previously been implicated in virulence, which were present in all of theemm32.2 iGAS isolates but not present in any of the non-emm32.2 control isolates. We report that a novelemm32.2 genotype emerged in Liverpool in 2010 and identified a specific subset of genes, which could have allowed this novelemm32.2 genotype to persist in a disadvantaged population in the region over a 3-year period.</p

Summertime Influence of Asian Pollution in the Free Troposphere over North America

We analyze aircraft observations obtained during INTEX-A (1 July 14 - August 2004) to examine the summertime influence of Asian pollution in the free troposphere over North America. By applying correlation analysis and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the observations between 6-12 km, we find dominant influences from recent convection and lightning (13 percent of observations), Asia (7 percent), the lower stratosphere (7 percent), and boreal forest fires (2 percent), with the remaining 71 percent assigned to background. Asian airmasses are marked by high levels of CO, O3, HCN, PAN, acetylene, benzene, methanol, and SO4(2-). The partitioning of reactive nitrogen species in the Asian plumes is dominated by peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) (approximately 600 pptv), with varying NO(x)/HNO3 ratios in individual plumes consistent with different plumes ages ranging from 3 to 9 days. Export of Asian pollution in warm conveyor belts of mid-latitude cyclones, deep convection, and lifting in typhoons all contributed to the five major Asian pollution plumes. Compared to past measurement campaigns of Asian outflow during spring, INTEX-A observations display unique characteristics: lower levels of anthropogenic pollutants (CO, propane, ethane, benzene) due to their shorter summer lifetimes; higher levels of biogenic tracers (methanol and acetone) because of a more active biosphere; as well as higher levels of PAN, NO(x), HNO3, and O3 (more active photochemistry possibly enhanced by injection of lightning NO(x)). The high delta O3/delta CO ratio (0.76 mol mol(exp -1)) of Asian plumes during INTEX-A is due to a combination of strong photochemical production and mixing with stratospheric air along isentropic surfaces. The GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model captures the timing and location of the Asian plumes remarkably well. However, it significantly underestimates the magnitude of the enhancements

Fanny Copeland and the geographical imagination

Raised in Scotland, married and divorced in the English south, an adopted Slovene, Fanny Copeland (1872 – 1970) occupied the intersection of a number of complex spatial and temporal conjunctures. A Slavophile, she played a part in the formation of what subsequently became the Kingdom of Yugoslavia that emerged from the First World War. Living in Ljubljana, she facilitated the first ‘foreign visit’ (in 1932) of the newly formed Le Play Society (a precursor of the Institute of British Geographers) and guided its studies of Solčava (a then ‘remote’ Alpine valley system) which, led by Dudley Stamp and commended by Halford Mackinder, were subsequently hailed as a model for regional studies elsewhere. Arrested by the Gestapo and interned in Italy during the Second World War, she eventually returned to a socialist Yugoslavia, a celebrated figure. An accomplished musician, linguist, and mountaineer, she became an authority on (and populist for) the Julian Alps and was instrumental in the establishment of the Triglav National Park. Copeland’s role as participant observer (and protagonist) enriches our understanding of the particularities of her time and place and illuminates some inter-war relationships within G/geography, inside and outside the academy, suggesting their relative autonomy in the production of geographical knowledge

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler. VIII. A Fully Automated Catalog With Measured Completeness and Reliability Based on Data Release 25

We present the Kepler Object of Interest (KOI) catalog of transiting exoplanets based on searching four years of Kepler time series photometry (Data Release 25, Q1-Q17). The catalog contains 8054 KOIs of which 4034 are planet candidates with periods between 0.25 and 632 days. Of these candidates, 219 are new and include two in multi-planet systems (KOI-82.06 and KOI-2926.05), and ten high-reliability, terrestrial-size, habitable zone candidates. This catalog was created using a tool called the Robovetter which automatically vets the DR25 Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs, Twicken et al. 2016). The Robovetter also vetted simulated data sets and measured how well it was able to separate TCEs caused by noise from those caused by low signal-to-noise transits. We discusses the Robovetter and the metrics it uses to sort TCEs. For orbital periods less than 100 days the Robovetter completeness (the fraction of simulated transits that are determined to be planet candidates) across all observed stars is greater than 85%. For the same period range, the catalog reliability (the fraction of candidates that are not due to instrumental or stellar noise) is greater than 98%. However, for low signal-to-noise candidates between 200 and 500 days around FGK dwarf stars, the Robovetter is 76.7% complete and the catalog is 50.5% reliable. The KOI catalog, the transit fits and all of the simulated data used to characterize this catalog are available at the NASA Exoplanet Archive.Comment: 61 pages, 23 Figures, 9 Tables, Accepted to The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Serie

Counter-Insurgency against ‘kith and kin’?: the British Army in Northern Ireland, 1970–76

This article argues that state violence in Northern Ireland during the period 1970–1976—when violence during the Troubles was at its height and before the re-introduction of the policy of police primacy in 1976—was on a greatly reduced scale from that seen in British counterinsurgency campaigns in the colonies after the Second World War. When the army attempted to introduce measures used in the colonies—curfews, internment without trial—these proved to be extremely damaging to London's political aims in Northern Ireland, namely the conciliation of the Catholic minority within the United Kingdom and the defeat of the IRA. However, the insistence by William Whitelaw, secretary of state for Northern Ireland (1972–73), on ‘throttling back'—the release of internees and the imposition of unprecedented restrictions on the use of violence by the army—put a serious strain on civil-military relations in Northern Ireland. The relatively stagnant nature of the conflict—with units taking casualties in the same small ‘patch’ of territory without opportunities for the types of ‘positive actions’ seen in the colonies—led to some deviancy on the part of small infantry units who sought informal, unsanctioned ways of taking revenge upon the local population. Meanwhile, a disbelieving and defensive attitude at senior levels of command in Northern Ireland meant that informal punitive actions against the local population were often not properly investigated during 1970–72, until more thorough civilian and military investigative procedures were put in place. Finally, a separation of ethnic and cultural identity between the soldiers and the local population—despite their being citizens of the same state—became professionally desirable in order for soldiers to carry out difficult, occasionally distasteful work