Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Consultations With Muslims From Minoritised Ethnic Communities Living in Deprived Areas: Identifying Inequities in Mental Health Care and Support

Background Limited research concerning existing inequities in mental health care and support services in the United Kingdom captures perceptions and lived experiences of the significantly underrepresented Muslim population. Methods Underpinned by social constructivist theory, we used consultation to facilitate public and patient involvement and engagement (PPIE) to identify inequities in mental health care and support experienced by Muslims from minoritised ethnic communities living in deprived areas in Liverpool, UK. The rationale was to (a) better inform standards and policies in healthcare and (b) provide a psychologically safe space to members of the Muslim community to share perceptions and experiences of mental health care and support services. To ensure trustworthiness of the data, member checking was adopted. This paper describes the procedure to achieving this consultation, including our recruitment strategy, data collection and analysis as well as key findings. Findings Twenty-seven consultees attended the women's consultation and eight consultees attended the men's consultation. Consultees were from Yemeni, Somali, Sudanese, Egyptian, Algerian, Pakistani and Moroccan communities and share the Islamic faith. Four key interlinked themes were identified from consultees' narratives: (1) broken cycle of trust; (2) an overmedicalised model of care; (3) community mental health prevention initiatives; and (4) culturally conscious training and education. Conclusions The Muslim population has identified numerous barriers to accessing mental health support and there is a need to resource activities that would aid deeper understanding of mental health support needs through continuous and meaningful community initiatives. This would afford mental health practitioners and organisations opportunities for developing realistic anti-racism strategies, effectively adopting social prescription, strengthening partnerships and collaborations aimed at supporting delivery of evidence-based mental health care provisions to tackle mental health inequities. Patient and public involvement This paper reports on the involvement and engagement of Muslims from minoritised ethnic communities living in the Liverpool city region

Search for CP violation in D+→K−K+π+D^{+} \to K^{-}K^{+}\pi^{+} decays

A model-independent search for direct CP violation in the Cabibbo suppressed decay $D^+ \to K^- K^+\pi^+$ in a sample of approximately 370,000 decays is carried out. The data were collected by the LHCb experiment in 2010 and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 35 pb$^{-1}$. The normalized Dalitz plot distributions for $D^+$ and $D^-$ are compared using four different binning schemes that are sensitive to different manifestations of CP violation. No evidence for CP asymmetry is found.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

First observation of Bs -> D_{s2}^{*+} X mu nu decays

Using data collected with the LHCb detector in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV, the semileptonic decays Bs -> Ds+ X mu nu and Bs -> D0 K+ X mu nu are detected. Two structures are observed in the D0 K+ mass spectrum at masses consistent with the known D^+_{s1}(2536) and $D^{*+}_{s2}(2573) mesons. The measured branching fractions relative to the total Bs semileptonic rate are B(Bs -> D_{s2}^{*+} X mu nu)/B(Bs -> X mu nu)= (3.3\pm 1.0\pm 0.4)%, and B(Bs -> D_{s1}^+ X munu)/B(Bs -> X mu nu)= (5.4\pm 1.2\pm 0.5)%, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. This is the first observation of the D_{s2}^{*+} state in Bs decays; we also measure its mass and width.Comment: 8 pages 2 figures. Published in Physics Letters

Molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying the evolution of form and function in the amniote jaw.

The amniote jaw complex is a remarkable amalgamation of derivatives from distinct embryonic cell lineages. During development, the cells in these lineages experience concerted movements, migrations, and signaling interactions that take them from their initial origins to their final destinations and imbue their derivatives with aspects of form including their axial orientation, anatomical identity, size, and shape. Perturbations along the way can produce defects and disease, but also generate the variation necessary for jaw evolution and adaptation. We focus on molecular and cellular mechanisms that regulate form in the amniote jaw complex, and that enable structural and functional integration. Special emphasis is placed on the role of cranial neural crest mesenchyme (NCM) during the species-specific patterning of bone, cartilage, tendon, muscle, and other jaw tissues. We also address the effects of biomechanical forces during jaw development and discuss ways in which certain molecular and cellular responses add adaptive and evolutionary plasticity to jaw morphology. Overall, we highlight how variation in molecular and cellular programs can promote the phenomenal diversity and functional morphology achieved during amniote jaw evolution or lead to the range of jaw defects and disease that affect the human condition

Using the Tg(nrd:egfp)/albino Zebrafish Line to Characterize In Vivo Expression of neurod

In this study, we used a newly-created transgenic zebrafish, Tg(nrd:egfp)/albino, to further characterize the expression of neurod in the developing and adult retina and to determine neurod expression during adult photoreceptor regeneration. We also provide observations regarding the expression of neurod in a variety of other tissues. In this line, EGFP is found in cells of the developing and adult retina, pineal gland, cerebellum, olfactory bulbs, midbrain, hindbrain, neural tube, lateral line, inner ear, pancreas, gut, and fin. Using immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridization, we compare the expression of the nrd:egfp transgene to that of endogenous neurod and to known retinal cell types. Consistent with previous data based on in situ hybridizations, we show that during retinal development, the nrd:egfp transgene is not expressed in proliferating retinal neuroepithelium, and is expressed in a subset of retinal neurons. In contrast to previous studies, nrd:egfp is gradually re-expressed in all rod photoreceptors. During photoreceptor regeneration in adult zebrafish, in situ hybridization reveals that neurod is not expressed in Müller glial-derived neuronal progenitors, but is expressed in photoreceptor progenitors as they migrate to the outer nuclear layer and differentiate into new rod photoreceptors. During photoreceptor regeneration, expression of the nrd:egfp matches that of neurod. We conclude that Tg(nrd:egfp)/albino is a good representation of endogenous neurod expression, is a useful tool to visualize neurod expression in a variety of tissues and will aid investigating the fundamental processes that govern photoreceptor regeneration in adults

Measuring Health Utilities in Children and Adolescents: A Systematic Review of the Literature.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this review was to evaluate the use of all direct and indirect methods used to estimate health utilities in both children and adolescents. Utilities measured pre- and post-intervention are combined with the time over which health states are experienced to calculate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Cost-utility analyses (CUAs) estimate the cost-effectiveness of health technologies based on their costs and benefits using QALYs as a measure of benefit. The accurate measurement of QALYs is dependent on using appropriate methods to elicit health utilities. OBJECTIVE: We sought studies that measured health utilities directly from patients or their proxies. We did not exclude those studies that also included adults in the analysis, but excluded those studies focused only on adults. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We evaluated 90 studies from a total of 1,780 selected from the databases. 47 (52%) studies were CUAs incorporated into randomised clinical trials; 23 (26%) were health-state utility assessments; 8 (9%) validated methods and 12 (13%) compared existing or new methods. 22 unique direct or indirect calculation methods were used a total of 137 times. Direct calculation through standard gamble, time trade-off and visual analogue scale was used 32 times. The EuroQol EQ-5D was the most frequently-used single method, selected for 41 studies. 15 of the methods used were generic methods and the remaining 7 were disease-specific. 48 of the 90 studies (53%) used some form of proxy, with 26 (29%) using proxies exclusively to estimate health utilities. CONCLUSIONS: Several child- and adolescent-specific methods are still being developed and validated, leaving many studies using methods that have not been designed or validated for use in children or adolescents. Several studies failed to justify using proxy respondents rather than administering the methods directly to the patients. Only two studies examined missing responses to the methods administered with respect to the patients' ages

Prompt K_short production in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=0.9 TeV

The production of K_short mesons in pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 0.9 TeV is studied with the LHCb detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The luminosity of the analysed sample is determined using a novel technique, involving measurements of the beam currents, sizes and positions, and is found to be 6.8 +/- 1.0 microbarn^-1. The differential prompt K_short production cross-section is measured as a function of the K_short transverse momentum and rapidity in the region 0 < pT < 1.6 GeV/c and 2.5 < y < 4.0. The data are found to be in reasonable agreement with previous measurements and generator expectations.Comment: 6+18 pages, 6 figures, updated author lis