A generic method for estimating and smoothing multispecies biodiversity indices using intermittent data

Biodiversity indicators summarise extensive, complex ecological data sets and are important in influencing government policy. Component data consist of time-varying indices for each of a number of different species. However, current biodiversity indicators suffer from multiple statistical shortcomings. We describe a state-space formulation for new multispecies biodiversity indicators, based on rates of change in the abundance or occupancy probability of the contributing individual species. The formulation is flexible and applicable to different taxa. It possesses several advantages, including the ability to accommodate the sporadic unavailability of data, incorporate variation in the estimation precision of the individual species’ indices when appropriate, and allow the direct incorporation of smoothing over time. Furthermore, model fitting is straightforward in Bayesian and classical implementations, the latter adopting either efficient Hidden Markov modelling or the Kalman filter. Conveniently, the same algorithms can be adopted for cases based on abundance or occupancy data—only the subsequent interpretation differs. The procedure removes the need for bootstrapping which can be prohibitive. We recommend which of two alternatives to use when taxa are fully or partially sampled. The performance of the new approach is demonstrated on simulated data, and through application to three diverse national UK data sets on butterflies, bats and dragonflies. We see that uncritical incorporation of index standard errors should be avoided

Preventing intrusive memories after trauma via a brief intervention involving Tetris computer game play in the emergency department: a proof-of-concept randomized controlled trial.

After psychological trauma, recurrent intrusive visual memories may be distressing and disruptive. Preventive interventions post trauma are lacking. Here we test a behavioural intervention after real-life trauma derived from cognitive neuroscience. We hypothesized that intrusive memories would be significantly reduced in number by an intervention involving a computer game with high visuospatial demands (Tetris), via disrupting consolidation of sensory elements of trauma memory. The Tetris-based intervention (trauma memory reminder cue plus c. 20 min game play) vs attention-placebo control (written activity log for same duration) were both delivered in an emergency department within 6 h of a motor vehicle accident. The randomized controlled trial compared the impact on the number of intrusive trauma memories in the subsequent week (primary outcome). Results vindicated the efficacy of the Tetris-based intervention compared with the control condition: there were fewer intrusive memories overall, and time-series analyses showed that intrusion incidence declined more quickly. There were convergent findings on a measure of clinical post-trauma intrusion symptoms at 1 week, but not on other symptom clusters or at 1 month. Results of this proof-of-concept study suggest that a larger trial, powered to detect differences at 1 month, is warranted. Participants found the intervention easy, helpful and minimally distressing. By translating emerging neuroscientific insights and experimental research into the real world, we offer a promising new low-intensity psychiatric intervention that could prevent debilitating intrusive memories following trauma

Macro level factors influencing strategic responses to emergent pandemics: A scoping review

Copyright (c) 2021 The Authors. Background Strategic planning is critical for successful pandemic management. This study aimed to identify and review the scope and analytic depth of situation analyses conducted to understand their utility, and capture the documented macro-level factors impacting pandemic management. Methods To synthesise this disparate body of literature, we adopted a two-step search and review process. A systematic search of the literature was conducted to identify all studies since 2000, that have 1) employed a situation analysis; and 2) examined contextual factors influencing pandemic management. The included studies are analysed using a seven-domain systems approach from the discipline of strategic management. Results Nineteen studies were included in the final review ranging from single country (6) to regional, multi-country studies (13). Fourteen studies had a single disease focus, with 5 studies evaluating responses to one or more of COVID-19, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), Influenza A (H1N1), Ebola virus disease, and Zika virus disease pandemics. Six studies examined a single domain from political, economic, sociological, technological, ecological or wider industry (PESTELI), 5 studies examined two to four domains, and 8 studies examined five or more domains. Methods employed were predominantly literature reviews. The recommendations focus predominantly on addressing inhibitors in the sociological and technological domains with few recommendations articulated in the political domain. Overall, the legislative domain is least represented. Conclusions Ex-post analysis using the seven-domain strategic management framework provides further opportunities for a planned systematic response to pandemics which remains critical as the current COVID-19 pandemic evolves.This study did not receive any external funding

Interactions between Plasma Levels of 25-Hydroxyvitamin D, Insulin-Like Growth Factor (IGF)-1 and C-Peptide with Risk of Colorectal Cancer

Background: Vitamin D status and levels of insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-1 and C-peptide have been implicated in colorectal carcinogenesis. However, in contrast to vitamin D IGF-1 is not an easily modifiable risk factor. Methods: Combining data from the Health Professionals Follow up Study (HPFS) and the Nurses' Health Study cohort (NHS) additive and multiplicative interactions were examined between plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and IGF-1, IGFBP-3 as well as C-peptide levels in 499 cases and 992 matched controls. For the various analytes, being high or low was based on being either above (or equal) or below the medians, respectively. Results: Compared to participants with high 25(OH)D and low IGF-1/IGFBP-3 ratio (reference group), participants with a high IGF-1/IGFBP-3 ratio were at elevated risk of colorectal cancer when 25(OH)D was low (odds ratio (OR): 2.05 (95% CI: 1.43 to 2.92), but not when 25(OH)D was high (OR:1.20 (95% CI: 0.84 to 1.71, p(interaction): additive = 0.06, multiplicative = 0.25). Similarly, compared to participants with high 25(OH)D and low molar IGF-1/IGFBP-3 ratio and low C-peptide levels (reference group), participants with a combination of either high IGF-1/IGFBP-3 ratio or high C-peptide were at elevated risk for colorectal cancer when 25(OH)D was low (OR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.22 to 2.94) but not when 25(OH)D was high (OR = 1.15, 95% CI: 0.74 to 1.77, p(interaction): additive = 0.004; multiplicative = 0.04). Conclusion: The results from this study suggest that improving vitamin D status may help lower risk of colorectal cancer associated with higher IGF-1/IGFBP-3 ratio or C-peptide levels

Preventive drugs in the last year of life of older adults with cancer: Is there room for deprescribing?

BACKGROUND: The continuation of preventive drugs among older patients with advanced cancer has come under scrutiny because these drugs are unlikely to achieve their clinical benefit during the patients' remaining lifespan. METHODS: A nationwide cohort study of older adults (those aged ≥65 years) with solid tumors who died between 2007 and 2013 was performed in Sweden, using routinely collected data with record linkage. The authors calculated the monthly use and cost of preventive drugs throughout the last year before the patients' death. RESULTS: Among 151,201 older persons who died with cancer (mean age, 81.3 years [standard deviation, 8.1 years]), the average number of drugs increased from 6.9 to 10.1 over the course of the last year before death. Preventive drugs frequently were continued until the final month of life, including antihypertensives, platelet aggregation inhibitors, anticoagulants, statins, and oral antidiabetics. Median drug costs amounted to $1482 (interquartile range [IQR],$700-$2896]) per person, including$213 (IQR, $77-$490) for preventive therapies. Compared with older adults who died with lung cancer (median drug cost, $205; IQR,$61-$523), costs for preventive drugs were higher among older adults who died with pancreatic cancer (adjusted median difference,$13; 95% confidence interval, $5-$22) or gynecological cancers (adjusted median difference, $27; 95$18-$36). There was no decrease noted with regard to the cost of preventive drugs throughout the last year of life. CONCLUSIONS: Preventive drugs commonly are prescribed during the last year of life among older adults with cancer, and often are continued until the final weeks before death. Adequate deprescribing strategies are warranted to reduce the burden of drugs with limited clinical benefit near the end of life

Annual review article: Is it time to rethink the gender agenda in entrepreneurship research?

This article develops a critique of contemporary approaches to analysing the impact of gender upon entrepreneurial propensity and activity. Since the 1990s, increasing attention has been afforded to the influence of gender upon women’s entrepreneurial behaviour; such analyses have highlighted an embedded masculinity within the entrepreneurial discourse which privileges men as normative entrepreneurial actors. Whilst invaluable in revealing a prevailing masculine bias within entrepreneurship, this critique is bounded by positioning women as a proxy for the gendered subject. This is a potentially limiting analysis that does not fully recognise gender as a human property with myriad articulations enacted throughout entrepreneurial activity. To progress debate, we engage more deeply with the notion of gender as a multiplicity exploring the implications of such for future studies of entrepreneurial activity

Physical activity, additional breast cancer events, and mortality among early-stage breast cancer survivors: findings from the WHEL Study

ObjectiveResearch suggests that physical activity is associated with improved breast cancer survival, yet no studies have examined the association between post-diagnosis changes in physical activity and breast cancer outcomes. The aim of this study was to determine whether baseline activity and 1-year change in activity are associated with breast cancer events or mortality.MethodsA total of 2,361 post-treatment breast cancer survivors (Stage I-III) enrolled in a randomized controlled trial of dietary change completed physical activity measures at baseline and one year. Physical activity variables (total, moderate-vigorous, and adherence to guidelines) were calculated for each time point. Median follow-up was 7.1 years. Outcomes were invasive breast cancer events and all-cause mortality.ResultsThose who were most active at baseline had a 53% lower mortality risk compared to the least active women (HR = 0.47; 95% CI: 0.26, 0.84; p = .01). Adherence to activity guidelines was associated with a 35% lower mortality risk (HR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.47, 0.91; p < .01). Neither baseline nor 1-year change in activity was associated with additional breast cancer events.ConclusionsHigher baseline (post-treatment) physical activity was associated with improved survival. However, change in activity over the following year was not associated with outcomes. These data suggest that long-term physical activity levels are important for breast cancer prognosis

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal