Aggregate Versus Subaggregate Models in Local Area Forecasting

Should statistical forecasts be constructed by aggregating data to each level for which forecasts are required or aggregating the forecasts from the lower levels? The relevant literature suggest no general answer. In this study using actual data, forecasts aggregated form lower-level forecasts were found best

Analysis and Prediction of Telephone Demand in Local Geographic Areas

An approach to forecasting the demand or local area telephone service is presented in this paper. The specific problem discussed is the fore­ casting of main stations in three Michigan metropolitan areas. Several different statistical models are used. The first class of models introduced uses adaptive exponential smoothing and is based solely on the past history of the time series involved. Although appropriate data at the local area level are very difficult to obtain, two exogenous time series related to household formations are used to construct more elaborate models for one of the areas. The various models are evaluated by both the average absolute and the root-mean-square forecast error. In terms of these criteria, the first class of models referred to above performs reasonably well while the second set does considerably better. This argues strongly that future improvements in forecasting accuracy will be made by the more extensive involvement of exogenous variables

Ambiguities in the Cross-Section Analysis of Per Share Financial Data

In analyzing corporate financial data it is standard procedure to adjust the data to reflect the current number of shares outstanding. In this study, we show that this simple ,standard procedure can cause serious difficulties in a financial analysis

Multistage Magnetic Separator of Cells and Proteins

The multistage electromagnetic separator for purifying cells and magnetic particles (MAGSEP) is a laboratory apparatus for separating and/or purifying particles (especially biological cells) on the basis of their magnetic susceptibility and magnetophoretic mobility. Whereas a typical prior apparatus based on similar principles offers only a single stage of separation, the MAGSEP, as its full name indicates, offers multiple stages of separation; this makes it possible to refine a sample population of particles to a higher level of purity or to categorize multiple portions of the sample on the basis of magnetic susceptibility and/or magnetophoretic mobility. The MAGSEP includes a processing unit and an electronic unit coupled to a personal computer. The processing unit includes upper and lower plates, a plate-rotation system, an electromagnet, an electromagnet-translation system, and a capture-magnet assembly. The plates are bolted together through a roller bearing that allows the plates to rotate with respect to each other. An interface between the plates acts as a seal for separating fluids. A lower cuvette can be aligned with as many as 15 upper cuvette stations for fraction collection during processing. A two-phase stepping motor drives the rotation system, causing the upper plate to rotate for the collection of each fraction of the sample material. The electromagnet generates a magnetic field across the lower cuvette, while the translation system translates the electromagnet upward along the lower cuvette. The current supplied to the electromagnet, and thus the magnetic flux density at the pole face of the electromagnet, can be set at a programmed value between 0 and 1,400 gauss (0.14 T). The rate of translation can be programmed between 5 and 2,000 m/s so as to align all sample particles in the same position in the cuvette. The capture magnet can be a permanent magnet. It is mounted on an arm connected to a stepping motor. The stepping motor rotates the arm to position the capture magnet above the upper cuvette into which a fraction of the sample is collected. The electronic unit includes a power switch, power-supply circuitry that accepts 110-Vac input power, an RS-232 interface, and status lights. The personal computer runs the MAGSEP software and controls the operation of the MAGSEP through the RS-232 interface. The status of the power, the translating electromagnet, the capture magnet, and the rotation of the upper plate are indicated in a graphical user interface on the computer screen

Modulation of SOCS protein expression influences the interferon responsiveness of human melanoma cells

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Endogenously produced interferons can regulate the growth of melanoma cells and are administered exogenously as therapeutic agents to patients with advanced cancer. We investigated the role of negative regulators of interferon signaling known as suppressors of cytokine signaling (SOCS) in mediating interferon-resistance in human melanoma cells.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Basal and interferon-alpha (IFN-α) or interferon-gamma (IFN-γ)-induced expression of SOCS1 and SOCS3 proteins was evaluated by immunoblot analysis in a panel of n = 10 metastatic human melanoma cell lines, in human embryonic melanocytes (HEM), and radial or vertical growth phase melanoma cells. Over-expression of SOCS1 and SOCS3 proteins in melanoma cells was achieved using the PINCO retroviral vector, while siRNA were used to inhibit SOCS1 and SOCS3 expression. Tyr⁷⁰¹-phosphorylated STAT1 (P-STAT1) was measured by intracellular flow cytometry and IFN-stimulated gene expression was measured by Real Time PCR.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>SOCS1 and SOCS3 proteins were expressed at basal levels in melanocytes and in all melanoma cell lines examined. Expression of the SOCS1 and SOCS3 proteins was also enhanced following stimulation of a subset of cell lines with IFN-α or IFN-γ. Over-expression of SOCS proteins in melanoma cell lines led to significant inhibition of Tyr⁷⁰¹-phosphorylated STAT1 (P-STAT1) and gene expression following stimulation with IFN-α (IFIT2, OAS-1, ISG-15) or IFN-γ (IRF1). Conversely, siRNA inhibition of SOCS1 and SOCS3 expression in melanoma cells enhanced their responsiveness to interferon stimulation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These data demonstrate that SOCS proteins are expressed in human melanoma cell lines and their modulation can influence the responsiveness of melanoma cells to IFN-α and IFN-γ.</p

A definition of flare in low back pain (LBP): A multiphase process involving perspectives of individuals with LBP and expert consensus

Low back pain (LBP) varies over time. Consumers, clinicians and researchers use various terms to describe fluctuations of LBP symptoms. Although "flare" is commonly used to describe symptom fluctuation, there is no consensus on how it is defined. This study aimed to obtain consensus for a LBP flare definition using a mixed-method approach. Step 1 involved derivation of a preliminary candidate flare definition based on thematic analysis of consumers' views in consultation with an expert consumer writer. In Step 2, a workshop was conducted to incorporate perspectives of LBP experts into the preliminary flare definition, which resulted in two alternative LBP flare definitions. Step 3 refined the definition using a two-round Delphi consensus process with experts in musculoskeletal conditions. The definition favoured by experts was further tested with individuals with LBP in Step 4, using the definition in three scenarios. This multiphase study produced a LBP flare definition that distinguishes it from other LBP fluctuations, represents views of consumers, involves expert consensus, and is understandable by consumers in clinical and research contexts: "A flare-up is a worsening of your condition that lasts from hours to weeks that is difficult to tolerate and generally impacts your usual activities and/or emotions". Perspective: A multiphase processes produced a low back pain (LBP) flare definition that distinguishes it from other LBP fluctuations, involves expert consensus and represents consumers' views

1968: Abilene Christian College Bible Lectures - Full Text

CROWNING FIFTY YEARS” Being the Fiftieth Annual ABILENE CHRISTIAN COLLEGE BIBLE LECTURES - 1968 J. D. THOMAS, LECTURESHIP DIRECTOR, EDITOR Published by ABILENE CHRISTIAN COLLEGE ACC Station, Abilene, Texas 7960

Ex vivo drug response profiling detects recurrent sensitivity patterns in drug-resistant acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Drug sensitivity and resistance testing on diagnostic leukemia samples should provide important functional information to guide actionable target and biomarker discovery. We provide proof of concept data by profiling 60 drugs on 68 acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) samples mostly from resistant disease in cocultures of bone marrow stromal cells. Patient-derived xenografts retained the original pattern of mutations found in the matched patient material. Stromal coculture did not prevent leukemia cell cycle activity, but a specific sensitivity profile to cell cycle-related drugs identified samples with higher cell proliferation both in vitro and in vivo as leukemia xenografts. In patients with refractory relapses, individual patterns of marked drug resistance and exceptional responses to new agents of immediate clinical relevance were detected. The BCL2inhibitor venetoclax was highly active below 10 nM in B-cell precursor ALL (BCP-ALL) subsets, including MLL-AF4 and TCF3-HLF ALL, and in some T-cell ALLs (T-ALLs), predicting in vivo activity as a single agent and in combination with dexamethasone and vincristine. Unexpected sensitivity to dasatinib with half maximal inhibitory concentration values below 20 nM was detected in 2 independent T-ALL cohorts, which correlated with similar cytotoxic activity of the SRC inhibitor KX2-391 and inhibition of SRC phosphorylation. A patient with refractory T-ALL was treated with dasatinib on the basis of drug profiling information and achieved a 5-month remission. Thus, drug profiling captures disease-relevant features and unexpected sensitivity to relevant drugs, which warrants further exploration of this functional assay in the context of clinical trials to develop drug repurposing strategies for patients with urgent medical needs.Peer reviewe

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Jazz Convocation

Program listing performers and works performe