Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

Daily moderate rainfall events, which constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 through 2005. On the other hand, mean and extreme near-surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4) and prescribed land cover of years 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC), which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over central India coincides with the region of decrease in forest and increase in crop cover. Our results also show that LULCC alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by a maximum of 1–1.2 °C, which is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease in forest cover and simultaneous increase in crops not only reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, but also contributes toward decrease in moisture convergence through reduced surface roughness. These factors act together in reducing significantly the moderate rainfall events and the amount of rainfall in that category over central India. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean. As a result, enhanced warming at the surface and greater decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India compared to the earlier set of simulations are noticed. Results from these additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of LULCC in the decrease in moderate rainfall events and increase in daily mean and extreme temperature over India. Therefore, this study demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over India during the monsoon season. Although, the regional climate model helps in better resolving land–atmosphere feedbacks over the Indian region, the inferences do depend on the fidelity of the model in capturing the features of Indian monsoon realistically. It is proposed that similar studies using a suite of climate models will further enrich our understanding about the role of LULCC in the Indian monsoon climate

Comparing Evaporative Sources of Terrestrial Precipitation and Their Extremes in MERRA Using Relative Entropy

A quasi-isentropic back trajectory scheme is applied to output from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications and a land-only replay with corrected precipitation to estimate surface evaporative sources of moisture supplying precipitation over every ice-free land location for the period 1979-2005. The evaporative source patterns for any location and time period are effectively two dimensional probability distributions. As such, the evaporative sources for extreme situations like droughts or wet intervals can be compared to the corresponding climatological distributions using the method of relative entropy. Significant differences are found to be common and widespread for droughts, but not wet periods, when monthly data are examined. At pentad temporal resolution, which is more able to isolate floods and situations of atmospheric rivers, values of relative entropy over North America are typically 50-400 larger than at monthly time scales. Significant differences suggest that moisture transport may be the key to precipitation extremes. Where evaporative sources do not change significantly, it implies other local causes may underlie the extreme events

Revisiting trends in wetness and dryness in the presence of internal climate variability and water limitations over land

A theoretically expected consequence of the intensification of the hydrological cycle under global warming is that on average, wet regions get wetter and dry regions get drier (WWDD). Recent studies, however, have found significant discrepancies between the expected pattern of change and observed changes over land. We assess the WWDD theory in four climate models. We find that the reported discrepancy can be traced to two main issues: (1) unforced internal climate variability strongly affects local wetness and dryness trends and can obscure underlying agreement with WWDD, and (2) dry land regions are not constrained to become drier by enhanced moisture divergence since evaporation cannot exceed precipitation over multiannual time scales. Over land, where the available water does not limit evaporation, a “wet gets wetter” signal predominates. On seasonal time scales, where evaporation can exceed precipitation, trends in wet season becoming wetter and dry season becoming drier are also found

Comparing the degree of land–atmosphere interaction in four atmospheric general circulation models

Permission to place copies of these works on this server has been provided by the American Meteorological Society (AMS). The AMS does not guarantee that the copies provided here are accurate copies of the published work. © Copyright 2002 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/AMS) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or [email protected] strength of the coupling between the land and the atmosphere, which controls, for example, the degree to which precipitation-induced soil moisture anomalies affect the overlying atmosphere and thereby the subsequent generation of precipitation, has been examined and quantified with many atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). Generally missing from such studies, however, is an indication of the extent to which the simulated coupling strength is model dependent. Four modeling groups have recently performed a highly controlled numerical experiment that allows an objective intermodel comparison of land–atmosphere coupling strength, focusing on short (weekly down to subhourly) timescales. The experiment essentially consists of an ensemble of 1-month simulations in which each member simulation artificially maintains the same (model specific) time series of surface prognostic variables. Differences in atmospheric behavior between the ensemble members then indicate the degree to which the state of the land surface controls atmospheric processes in that model. A comparison of the four sets of experimental results shows that coupling strength does indeed vary significantly among the AGCMs

HESS opinions: a perspective on isotope versus non-isotope approaches to determine the contribution of transpiration to total evaporation

Current techniques to disentangle the evaporative fluxes from the continental surface into a contribution evaporated from soils and canopy, or transpired by plants, are under debate. Many isotope-based studies show that transpiration contributes generally more than 70% to the total evaporation, while other isotope-independent techniques lead to considerably smaller transpiration fractions. This paper provides a perspective on isotope-based versus non-isotope-based partitioning studies. Some partitioning results from isotope-based methods, hydrometric measurements, and modeling are presented for comparison. Moreover, the methodological aspects of the partitioning analysis are considered, including their limitations, and explanations of possible discrepancies between the methods are discussed. We suggest sources of systematic error that may lead to biases in the results, e.g., instruments inaccuracy, assumptions used in analyses, and calibration parameters. A number of comparison studies using isotope-based methods and hydrometric measurements in the same plants and climatic conditions are consistent within the errors; however, models tend to produce lower transpiration fractions. The relatively low transpiration fraction in current state-of-the-art land-surface models calls for a reassessment of the skill of the underlying model parameterizations. The scarcity of global evaporation data makes calibration and validation of global isotope-independent and isotope-based results difficult. However, isotope-enabled land-surface and global climate modeling studies allow for the evaluation of the parameterization of land-surface models by comparing the computed water isotopologue signals in the atmosphere with the available remote sensing and flux-based data sets. Future studies that allow for this evaluation could provide a better understanding of the hydrological cycle in vegetated regions

Where Does the Irrigation Water Go? An Estimate of the Contribution of Irrigation to Precipitation Using MERRA

Irrigation is an important human activity that may impact local and regional climate, but current climate model simulations and data assimilation systems generally do not explicitly include it. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows more irrigation signal in surface evapotranspiration (ET) than the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) because ERA-Interim adjusts soil moisture according to the observed surface temperature and humidity while MERRA has no explicit consideration of irrigation at the surface. But, when compared with the results from a hydrological model with detailed considerations of agriculture, the ET from both reanalyses show large deficiencies in capturing the impact of irrigation. Here, a back-trajectory method is used to estimate the contribution of irrigation to precipitation over local and surrounding regions, using MERRA with observation-based corrections and added irrigation-caused ET increase from the hydrological model. Results show substantial contributions of irrigation to precipitation over heavily irrigated regions in Asia, but the precipitation increase is much less than the ET increase over most areas, indicating that irrigation could lead to water deficits over these regions. For the same increase in ET, precipitation increases are larger over wetter areas where convection is more easily triggered, but the percentage increase in precipitation is similar for different areas. There are substantial regional differences in the patterns of irrigation impact, but, for all the studied regions, the highest percentage contribution to precipitation is over local land

Information Theoretic Evaluation of Satellite Soil Moisture Retrievals

Microwave radiometry has a long legacy of providing estimates of remotely sensed near surfacesoil moisture measurements over continental and global scales. A consistent assessment of theerrors and uncertainties associated with these retrievals is important for their effective utilization in modeling, data assimilation and end-use application environments. This article presents an evaluationof soil moisture retrieval products from AMSR-E, ASCAT, SMOS, AMSR2 and SMAPinstruments using information theory-based metrics. These metrics rely on time series analysis ofsoil moisture retrievals for estimating the measurement error, level of randomness (entropy) andregularity (complexity) of the data. The results of the study indicate that the measurement errors inthe remote sensing retrievals are significantly larger than that of the ground soil moisture measurements.The SMAP retrievals, on the other hand, were found to have reduced errors (comparable to Preprint submitted to Remote Sensing of Environment October 1, 2017those of in-situ datasets), particularly over areas with moderate vegetation. The SMAP retrievals also demonstrate high information content relative to other retrieval products, with higher levelsof complexity and reduced entropy. Finally, a joint evaluation of the entropy and complexity ofremotely sensed soil moisture products indicates that the information content of the AMSR-E, ASCAT,SMOS and AMSR2 retrievals is low, whereas SMAP retrievals show better performance. The use of information theoretic assessments is effective in quantifying the required levels of improvements needed in the remote sensing soil moisture retrievals to enhance their utility and information content

Energy and water dynamics of a central Amazonian rain forest

This paper presents measurements of the energy and water budgets of a tropical rain forest near Manaus, Brazil, in central Amazonia, collected between September 1995 and August 1996. Fluxes of sensible and latent heat were measured using a three-dimensional eddy covariance system mounted above the forest canopy. Using a new approach to analysis of eddy covariance data, we found that the measured fluxes increased significantly when turbulent transport on timescales of 1 to 4 hours was taken into account. With this new analysis, the measured turbulent fluxes almost balanced the incoming net radiation, giving increased confidence in the accuracy of the measured fluxes. Of the 5.56 GJ m-2 yr-1 of solar radiation supplied over the year, 11% were reflected, 15% were lost as net thermal emission, 27% were transported through sensible heat convection, 46% used in evapotranspiration, and 0.5% were used; in net carbon fixation. Total annual evapotranspiration was calculated to be 1123 mm; accounting for 54% of total precipitation. Seasohality was an important influence: limited water availability during the dry season caused evapotranspiration to reduce by 50%. Total canopy conductance was linearly correlated to soil moisture content, with typical midday values ranging between 0.8 mol m-2 s-1 in the wet season and 0.3 mol m-2 s-1 in the dry season. Such seasonal behavior is likely to be prevalent in most tropical forest regions, and correct description of dry-season evapotranspiration will require accurate modeling of plant and soil hydraulic properties and knowledge of root distributions. Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union

Black and White Student Achievement Gaps in Tennessee

Achievement gaps between Black students and White students have existed since public education was desegregated, and they still persist despite efforts to close the gap. This research describes the achievement gaps between Black and White 3rd through 8th grade students in the state of Tennessee from 2017-2019. This is a non-experimental, quantitative, comparative-analysis describing the ELA and math test scores of Black students and White students in each of the three geographic regions of Tennessee. Data were arranged in 2x2 contingency matrixes to compare the expected frequencies of students in each race scoring on-track and mastered versus below and approaching. The data from the matrixes were analyzed in SPSS using Chi Squared tests to determine if the difference between Black student scores and White student scores was statistically significant. All twelve test score groupings showed an achievement gap between Black students and White students. The largest achievement gap was in West Tennessee’s elementary school ELA scores. The smallest achievement gap was in West Tennessee’s middle school math scores. Although there were gaps between Black students and White students in all twelve groupings, East Tennessee’s gaps were the smallest overall, ELA scores had smaller gaps than math scores in general, and middle school had smaller gaps than elementary school. These significant findings suggest there is much work to be done in Tennessee to close the gap between Black students and White students in order to provide a more equitable school experience

Circadian Rhythms of the Spider Pholcus phalangeoides in Activity Monitors and Web Boxes

Circadian rhythms are endogenous molecular clocks that correspond to the 24-hour day and are regulated by light stimulus, allowing organisms to entrain to the dawn-dusk cycle. These clocks may allow organisms to anticipate daily events, influencing their behavior. In arthropods, including spiders, circadian rhythmicity is tested using activity monitors, which house individuals in tubes. However, this does not reflect the natural habitat of many spiders. We compared the locomotor activity of the cellar spider Pholcus phalangiodes in activity monitors with the locomotor activity in web boxes. After being entrained to a 12:12 light:dark cycle, the spiders were recorded in constant darkness. The resulting free-running periods demonstrated similar clock data for spiders in tubes as in boxes. This validates the activity-monitor research method