Contextual factors among indiscriminate or larger attacks on food or water supplies, 1946-2015

This research updates previous inventories of malicious attacks on food and water to include data from 1946 through mid-2015. A systematic search of news reports, databases and previous inventories of poisoning events was undertaken. Incidents that threatened or were intended to achieve direct harm to humans, and that were either relatively large (number of victims > 4 or indiscriminate in intent or realisation were included. Agents could be chemical, biological or radio-nuclear. Reports of candidate incidents were subjected to systematic inclusion and exclusion criteria as well as validity analysis (not always clearly undertaken in previous inventories of such attacks). We summarise contextual aspects of the attacks that may be important for scenario prioritisation, modelling and defensive preparedness. Opportunity is key to most realised attacks, particularly access to dangerous agents. The most common motives and relative success rate in causing harm were very different between food and water attacks. The likelihood that people were made ill or died also varied by food/water mode, and according to motive and opportunity for delivery of the hazardous agent. Deaths and illness associated with attacks during food manufacture and prior to sale have been fewer than those in some other contexts. Valuable opportunities for food defence improvements are identified in other contexts, especially food prepared in private or community settings

Time preferences and risk aversion: tests on domain differences

The design and evaluation of environmental policy requires the incorporation of time and risk elements as many environmental outcomes extend over long time periods and involve a large degree of uncertainty. Understanding how individuals discount and evaluate risks with respect to environmental outcomes is a prime component in designing effective environmental policy to address issues of environmental sustainability, such as climate change. Our objective in this study is to investigate whether subjects' time preferences and risk aversion across the monetary domain and the environmental domain differ. Crucially, our experimental design is incentivized: in the monetary domain, time preferences and risk aversion are elicited with real monetary payoffs, whereas in the environmental domain, we elicit time preferences and risk aversion using real (bee-friendly) plants. We find that subjects' time preferences are not significantly different across the monetary and environmental domains. In contrast, subjects' risk aversion is significantly different across the two domains. More specifically, subjects (men and women) exhibit a higher degree of risk aversion in the environmental domain relative to the monetary domain. Finally, we corroborate earlier results, which document that women are more risk averse than men in the monetary domain. We show this finding to, also, hold in the environmental domain

Millets across Eurasia: chronology and context of early records of the genera Panicum and Setaria from archaeological sites in the Old World

We have collated and reviewed published records of the genera Panicum and Setaria (Poaceae), including the domesticated millets Panicum miliaceum L. (broomcorn millet) and Setaria italica (L.) P. Beauv. (foxtail millet) in pre-5000 cal b.c. sites across the Old World. Details of these sites, which span China, central-eastern Europe including the Caucasus, Iran, Syria and Egypt, are presented with associated calibrated radiocarbon dates. Forty-one sites have records of Panicum (P. miliaceum, P. cf. miliaceum, Panicum sp., Panicum type, P. capillare (?) and P. turgidum) and 33 of Setaria (S. italica, S. viridis, S. viridis/verticillata, Setaria sp., Setaria type). We identify problems of taphonomy, identification criteria and reporting, and inference of domesticated/wild and crop/weed status of finds. Both broomcorn and foxtail millet occur in northern China prior to 5000 cal b.c.; P. miliaceum occurs contemporaneously in Europe, but its significance is unclear. Further work is needed to resolve the above issues before the status of these taxa in this period can be fully evaluated

New physics searches at near detectors of neutrino oscillation experiments

We systematically investigate the prospects of testing new physics with tau sensitive near detectors at neutrino oscillation facilities. For neutrino beams from pion decay, from the decay of radiative ions, as well as from the decays of muons in a storage ring at a neutrino factory, we discuss which effective operators can lead to new physics effects. Furthermore, we discuss the present bounds on such operators set by other experimental data currently available. For operators with two leptons and two quarks we present the first complete analysis including all relevant operators simultaneously and performing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo fit to the data. We find that these effects can induce tau neutrino appearance probabilities as large as O(10^{-4}), which are within reach of forthcoming experiments. We highlight to which kind of new physics a tau sensitive near detector would be most sensitive.Comment: 20 pages, 2 figures, REVTeX

Assessment of Forest Biomass and Carbon Stocks at Stand Level Using Site-Specific Primary Data to Support Forest Management

To quantify and map woody biomass (WB) and forest carbon (C) stocks, several models were developed. They differ in terms of scale of application, details related to the input data required and outputs provided. Local Authorities, such as Mountain Communities, can be supported in sustainable forest planning and management by providing specific models in which the reference unit is the same as the one reported in the Forest Management Plans (FMP), i.e. the forest stand. In the Lombardy Region (Northern Italy), a few studies were performed to assess WB and forest C stocks, and they were generally based on data coming from regional\u2014or national\u2014forest inventories and remote sensing, without taking into account data collected in the FMPs. For this study, the first version of the stand-level model \u201cWOody biomass and Carbon ASsessment\u201d (WOCAS) for WB and C stocks calculation was improved into a second version (WOCAS v2) and preliminary results about its first application to 2019 forest stands of Valle Camonica District (Lombardy Region) are presented. Since the model WOCAS uses the growing stock as the main driver for the calculation, it can be applied in any other forest area where the same input data are available

The search for transient astrophysical neutrino emission with IceCube-DeepCore

We present the results of a search for astrophysical sources of brief transient neutrino emission using IceCube and DeepCore data acquired between 2012 May 15 and 2013 April 30. While the search methods employed in this analysis are similar to those used in previous IceCube point source searches, the data set being examined consists of a sample of predominantly sub-TeV muon-neutrinos from the Northern Sky (-5 degrees < delta < 90 degrees) obtained through a novel event selection method. This search represents a first attempt by IceCube to identify astrophysical neutrino sources in this relatively unexplored energy range. The reconstructed direction and time of arrival of neutrino events are used to search for any significant self-correlation in the data set. The data revealed no significant source of transient neutrino emission. This result has been used to construct limits at timescales ranging from roughly 1 s to 10 days for generic soft-spectra transients. We also present limits on a specific model of neutrino emission from soft jets in core-collapse supernovae

The method of educational assessment affects children’s neural processing and performance: behavioural and fMRI Evidence.

Standardised educational assessments are now widespread, yet their development has given comparatively more consideration to what to assess than how to optimally assess students’ competencies. Existing evidence from behavioural studies with children and neuroscience studies with adults suggest that the method of assessment may affect neural processing and performance, but current evidence remains limited. To investigate the impact of assessment methods on neural processing and performance in young children, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging to identify and quantify the neural correlates during performance across a range of current approaches to standardised spelling assessment. Results indicated that children’s test performance declined as the cognitive load of assessment method increased. Activation of neural nodes associated with working memory further suggests that this performance decline may be a consequence of a higher cognitive load, rather than the complexity of the content. These findings provide insights into principles of assessment (re)design, to ensure assessment results are an accurate reflection of students’ true levels of competency

Evaluation of a blocking ELISA for the detection of antibodies against Lawsonia intracellularis in pig sera

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Lawsonia intracellularis </it>is a common cause of chronic diarrhoea and poor performance in young growing pigs. Diagnosis of this obligate intracellular bacterium is based on the demonstration of the microbe or microbial DNA in tissue specimens or faecal samples, or the demonstration of <it>L. intracellularis</it>-specific antibodies in sera. The aim of the present study was to evaluate a blocking ELISA in the detection of serum antibodies to <it>L. intracellularis</it>, by comparison to the previously widely used immunofluorescent antibody test (IFAT).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Sera were collected from 176 pigs aged 8-12 weeks originating from 24 herds with or without problems with diarrhoea and poor performance in young growing pigs. Sera were analyzed by the blocking ELISA and by IFAT. Bayesian modelling techniques were used to account for the absence of a gold standard test and the results of the blocking ELISA was modelled against the IFAT test with a "2 dependent tests, 2 populations, no gold standard" model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At the finally selected cut-off value of percent inhibition (PI) 35, the diagnostic sensitivity of the blocking ELISA was 72% and the diagnostic specificity was 93%. The positive predictive value was 0.82 and the negative predictive value was 0.89, at the observed prevalence of 33.5%.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The sensitivity and specificity as evaluated by Bayesian statistic techniques differed from that previously reported. Properties of diagnostic tests may well vary between countries, laboratories and among populations of animals. In the absence of a true gold standard, the importance of validating new methods by appropriate statistical methods and with respect to the target population must be emphasized.</p

Studying the Underlying Event in Drell-Yan and High Transverse Momentum Jet Production at the Tevatron

We study the underlying event in proton-antiproton collisions by examining the behavior of charged particles (transverse momentum pT > 0.5 GeV/c, pseudorapidity |\eta| < 1) produced in association with large transverse momentum jets (~2.2 fb-1) or with Drell-Yan lepton-pairs (~2.7 fb-1) in the Z-boson mass region (70 < M(pair) < 110 GeV/c2) as measured by CDF at 1.96 TeV center-of-mass energy. We use the direction of the lepton-pair (in Drell-Yan production) or the leading jet (in high-pT jet production) in each event to define three regions of \eta-\phi space; toward, away, and transverse, where \phi is the azimuthal scattering angle. For Drell-Yan production (excluding the leptons) both the toward and transverse regions are very sensitive to the underlying event. In high-pT jet production the transverse region is very sensitive to the underlying event and is separated into a MAX and MIN transverse region, which helps separate the hard component (initial and final-state radiation) from the beam-beam remnant and multiple parton interaction components of the scattering. The data are corrected to the particle level to remove detector effects and are then compared with several QCD Monte-Carlo models. The goal of this analysis is to provide data that can be used to test and improve the QCD Monte-Carlo models of the underlying event that are used to simulate hadron-hadron collisions.Comment: Submitted to Phys.Rev.

Forward-Backward Asymmetry in Top Quark Production in ppbar Collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV

Reconstructable final state kinematics and charge assignment in the reaction ppbar->ttbar allows tests of discrete strong interaction symmetries at high energy. We define frame dependent forward-backward asymmetries for the outgoing top quark in both the ppbar and ttbar rest frames, correct for experimental distortions, and derive values at the parton-level. Using 1.9/fb of ppbar collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV recorded with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron, we measure forward-backward top quark production asymmetries in the ppbar and ttbar rest frames of A_{FB,pp} = 0.17 +- 0.08 and A_{FB,tt} = 0.24 +- 0.14.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, submitted to Phys.Rev.Lett, corrected references and change of tex