Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment

Background High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of populationbased health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the eff ects of risk factors on cause-specifi c mortality from metaanalyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for- each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the eff ects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specifi c population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specifi c deaths. We obtained cause-specifi c mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the fi nal estimates. Findings In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10\ub78 million deaths, 95% CI 10\ub71\u201311\ub75) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined eff ect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7\ub71 million deaths, 6\ub76\u20137\ub76) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined eff ects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing eff ect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the globalresponse to non-communicable diseases

Bayesian lasso binary quantile regression

In this paper, a Bayesian hierarchical model for variable selection and estimation in the context of binary quantile regression is proposed. Existing approaches to variable selection in a binary classification context are sensitive to outliers, heteroskedasticity or other anomalies of the latent response. The method proposed in this study overcomes these problems in an attractive and straightforward way. A Laplace likelihood and Laplace priors for the regression parameters are proposed and estimated with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The resulting model is equivalent to the frequentist lasso procedure. A conceptional result is that by doing so, the binary regression model is moved from a Gaussian to a full Laplacian framework without sacrificing much computational efficiency. In addition, an efficient Gibbs sampler to estimate the model parameters is proposed that is superior to the Metropolis algorithm that is used in previous studies on Bayesian binary quantile regression. Both the simulation studies and the real data analysis indicate that the proposed method performs well in comparison to the other methods. Moreover, as the base model is binary quantile regression, a much more detailed insight in the effects of the covariates is provided by the approach. An implementation of the lasso procedure for binary quantile regression models is available in the R-package bayesQR

Trends of obesity and abdominal obesity in Tehranian adults: a cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Considering the increasing trend of obesity reported in current data, this study was conducted to examine trends of obesity and abdominal obesity among Tehranian adults during a median follow-up of 6.6 years.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Height and weight of 4402 adults, aged 20 years and over, participants of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS), were measured in 1999-2001(phase I) and again in 2002-2005(phase II) and 2006-2008 (phase III). Criteria used for obesity and abdominal obesity defined body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 and waist circumference ≥ 94/80 cm for men/women respectively. Subjects were divided into10-year groups and the prevalence of obesity was compared across sex and age groups.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of obesity was 15.8, 18.6 and 21% in men and 31.5, 37.7 and 38.6% in women in phases I, II and III respectively (p < 0.001). The prevalence of abdominal obesity in men was 36.5, 57.2 and 63.3% and in women was 76.7, 83.8 and 83.6% in the three periods mentioned (p < 0.001). Men aged between 20-29 years had highest increase rates of obesity and abdominal obesity in phase III in comparison with phase I (with a respective rates of 2.2- and 3.3-fold). In both sexes, an increased trend was observed between phases I and II, whereas between phases II and III, this trend was observed in men, but not in women.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study demonstrates alarming rises in the prevalences of both obesity and abdominal obesity in both sexes especially in young men, calling for urgent action to educate people in lifestyle modifications.</p

Quantitative and Qualitative Responses to Topical Cold in Healthy Caucasians Show Variance between Individuals but High Test-Retest Reliability.

Increased sensitivity to cold may be a predictor of persistent pain, but cold pain threshold is often viewed as unreliable. This study aimed to determine the within-subject reliability and between-subject variance of cold response, measured comprehensively as cold pain threshold plus pain intensity and sensation quality at threshold. A test-retest design was used over three sessions, one day apart. Response to cold was assessed at four sites (thenar eminence, volar forearm, tibialis anterior, plantar foot). Cold pain threshold was measured using a Medoc thermode and standard method of limits. Intensity of pain at threshold was rated using a 10cm visual analogue scale. Quality of sensation at threshold was quantified with indices calculated from subjects' selection of descriptors from a standard McGill Pain Questionnaire. Within-subject reliability for each measure was calculated with intra-class correlation coefficients and between-subject variance was evaluated as group coefficient of variation percentage (CV%). Gender and site comparisons were also made. Forty-five healthy adults participated: 20 male, 25 female; mean age 29 (range 18-56) years. All measures at all four test sites showed high within-subject reliability: cold pain thresholds r = 0.92-0.95; pain rating r = 0.93-0.97; McGill pain quality indices r = 0.87-0.85. In contrast, all measures showed wide between-subject variance (CV% between 51.4% and 92.5%). Upper limb sites were consistently more sensitive than lower limb sites, but equally reliable. Females showed elevated cold pain thresholds, although similar pain intensity and quality to males. Females were also more reliable and showed lower variance for all measures. Thus, although there was clear population variation, response to cold for healthy individuals was found to be highly reliable, whether measured as pain threshold, pain intensity or sensation quality. A comprehensive approach to cold response testing therefore may add validity and improve acceptance of this potentially important pain measure.Thus, although there was clear population variation, response to cold for healthy individuals was found to be highly reliable, whether measured as pain threshold, pain intensity or sensation quality. A comprehensive approach to cold response testing therefore may add validity and improve acceptance of this potentially important pain measure

Chloroquine potentiates the anti-cancer effect of 5-fluorouracil on colon cancer cells

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chloroquine (CQ), the worldwide used anti-malarial drug, has recently being focused as a potential anti-cancer agent as well as a chemosensitizer when used in combination with anti-cancer drugs. It has been shown to inhibit cell growth and/or to induce cell death in various types of cancer. 5-Fluorouracil (5-FU) is the chemotherapeutic agent of first choice in colorectal cancer, but in most cases, resistance to 5-FU develops through various mechanisms. Here, we focused on the combination of CQ as a mechanism to potentiate the inhibitory effect of 5-FU on human colon cancer cells.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>HT-29 cells were treated with CQ and/or 5-FU, and their proliferative ability, apoptosis and autophagy induction effects, and the affection of the cell cycle were evaluated. The proliferative ability of HT-29 was analyzed by the MTS assay. Apoptosis was quantified by flow-cytometry after double-staining of the cells with AnnexinV/PI. The cell cycle was evaluated by flow-cytometry after staining of cells with PI. Autophagy was quantified by flow-cytometry and Western blot analysis. Finally, to evaluate the fate of the cells treated with CQ and/or 5-FU, the colony formation assay was performed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>5-FU inhibited the proliferative activity of HT-29 cells, which was mostly dependent on the arrest of the cells to the G0/G1-phase but also partially on apoptosis induction, and the effect was potentiated by CQ pre-treatment. The potentiation of the inhibitory effect of 5-FU by CQ was dependent on the increase of p21^Cip1and p27^Kip1and the decrease of CDK2. Since CQ is reported to inhibit autophagy, the catabolic process necessary for cell survival under conditions of cell starvation or stress, which is induced by cancer cells as a protective mechanism against chemotherapeutic agents, we also analyzed the induction of autophagy in HT-29. HT-29 induced autophagy in response to 5-FU, and CQ inhibited this induction, a possible mechanism of the potentiation of the anti-cancer effect of 5-FU.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings suggest that the combination therapy with CQ should be a novel therapeutic modality to improve efficacy of 5-FU-based chemotherapy, possibly by inhibiting autophagy-dependent resistance to chemotherapy.</p

Surface Hardness Impairment of Quorum Sensing and Swarming for Pseudomonas aeruginosa

The importance of rhamnolipid to swarming of the bacterium Pseudomonas aeruginosa is well established. It is frequently, but not exclusively, observed that P. aeruginosa swarms in tendril patterns—formation of these tendrils requires rhamnolipid. We were interested to explain the impact of surface changes on P. aeruginosa swarm tendril development. Here we report that P. aeruginosa quorum sensing and rhamnolipid production is impaired when growing on harder semi-solid surfaces. P. aeruginosa wild-type swarms showed huge variation in tendril formation with small deviations to the “standard” swarm agar concentration of 0.5%. These macroscopic differences correlated with microscopic investigation of cells close to the advancing swarm edge using fluorescent gene reporters. Tendril swarms showed significant rhlA-gfp reporter expression right up to the advancing edge of swarming cells while swarms without tendrils (grown on harder agar) showed no rhlA-gfp reporter expression near the advancing edge. This difference in rhamnolipid gene expression can be explained by the necessity of quorum sensing for rhamnolipid production. We provide evidence that harder surfaces seem to limit induction of quorum sensing genes near the advancing swarm edge and these localized effects were sufficient to explain the lack of tendril formation on hard agar. We were unable to artificially stimulate rhamnolipid tendril formation with added acyl-homoserine lactone signals or increasing the carbon nutrients. This suggests that quorum sensing on surfaces is controlled in a manner that is not solely population dependent

The overlapping burden of the three leading causes of disability and death in sub-Saharan African children

Despite substantial declines since 2000, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria remain among the leading causes of nonfatal and fatal disease burden for children under 5 years of age (under 5), primarily in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The spatial burden of each of these diseases has been estimated subnationally across SSA, yet no prior analyses have examined the pattern of their combined burden. Here we synthesise subnational estimates of the burden of LRIs, diarrhoea, and malaria in children under-5 from 2000 to 2017 for 43 sub-Saharan countries. Some units faced a relatively equal burden from each of the three diseases, while others had one or two dominant sources of unit-level burden, with no consistent pattern geographically across the entire subcontinent. Using a subnational counterfactual analysis, we show that nearly 300 million DALYs could have been averted since 2000 by raising all units to their national average. Our findings are directly relevant for decision-makers in determining which and targeting where the most appropriate interventions are for increasing child survival. © 2022, The Author(s).Funding text 1: This work was primarily supported by grant OPP1132415 from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. ; Funding text 2: This study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The corresponding author had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication. The non-consortium authors have no competing interests . Competing interests for consortium authors is as follows: Robert Ancuceanu reports receiving consultancy or speaker feeds from UCB, Sandoz, Abbvie, Zentiva, Teva, Laropharm, CEGEDIM, Angelini, Biessen Pharma, Hofigal, AstraZeneca, and Stada. Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak reports personal fees from Amgen, ALAB Laboratories, Teva, Synexus, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Zentiva, all outside the submitted work. Kewal Krishan reports non-financial support from UGC Centre of Advanced Study, CAS II, Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India, outside the submitted work. Walter Mendoza is a Program Analyst in Population and Development at the United Nations Population Fund-UNFPA Country Office in Peru, which does not necessarily endorse or support these findings. Maarten J Postma reports grants and personal fees from MSD, GSK, Pfizer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Novavax, BMS, Seqirus, Astra Zeneca, Sanofi, IQVIA, grants from Bayer, BioMerieux, WHO, EU, FIND, Antilope, DIKTI, LPDP, Budi, personal fees from Novartis, Quintiles, Pharmerit, owning stock options in Health-Ecore and PAG Ltd, and being advisor to Asc Academics, all outside the submitted work. Jasviner A Singh reports personal fees from Crealta/Horizon, Medisys, Fidia, UBM LLC, Trio health, Medscape, WebMD, Clinical Care options, Clearview healthcare partners, Putnam associates, Focus forward, Navigant consulting, Spherix, Practice Point communications, the National Institutes of Health, the American College of Rheumatology, and Simply Speaking, owning stock options in Amarin, Viking, Moderna, Vaxart pharmaceuticals and Charlotte’s Web Holdings, being a member of FDA Arthritis Advisory Committee, the steering committee of OMERACT, an international organization that develops measures for clinical trials and receives arm’s length funding from 12 pharmaceutical companies, and the Veterans Affairs Rheumatology Field Advisory Committee, and acting as Editor and Director of the UAB Cochrane Musculoskeletal Group Satellite Center on Network Meta-analysis, all outside the submitted work. Era Upadhyay has a patent A system and method of reusable filters for anti-pollution mask pending, and a patent A system and method for electricity generation through crop stubble by using microbial fuel cells pending