Climate dynamics and fluid mechanics: Natural variability and related uncertainties

The purpose of this review-and-research paper is twofold: (i) to review the role played in climate dynamics by fluid-dynamical models; and (ii) to contribute to the understanding and reduction of the uncertainties in future climate-change projections. To illustrate the first point, we focus on the large-scale, wind-driven flow of the mid-latitude oceans which contribute in a crucial way to Earth's climate, and to changes therein. We study the low-frequency variability (LFV) of the wind-driven, double-gyre circulation in mid-latitude ocean basins, via the bifurcation sequence that leads from steady states through periodic solutions and on to the chaotic, irregular flows documented in the observations. This sequence involves local, pitchfork and Hopf bifurcations, as well as global, homoclinic ones. The natural climate variability induced by the LFV of the ocean circulation is but one of the causes of uncertainties in climate projections. Another major cause of such uncertainties could reside in the structural instability in the topological sense, of the equations governing climate dynamics, including but not restricted to those of atmospheric and ocean dynamics. We propose a novel approach to understand, and possibly reduce, these uncertainties, based on the concepts and methods of random dynamical systems theory. As a very first step, we study the effect of noise on the topological classes of the Arnol'd family of circle maps, a paradigmatic model of frequency locking as occurring in the nonlinear interactions between the El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and the seasonal cycle. It is shown that the maps' fine-grained resonant landscape is smoothed by the noise, thus permitting their coarse-grained classification. This result is consistent with stabilizing effects of stochastic parametrization obtained in modeling of ENSO phenomenon via some general circulation models.Comment: Invited survey paper for Special Issue on The Euler Equations: 250 Years On, in Physica D: Nonlinear phenomen

Pretreatment metabotype as a predictor of response to sertraline or placebo in depressed outpatients: a proof of concept

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the baseline metabolic profile (that is, metabotype) of a patient with major depressive disorder (MDD) would define how an individual will respond to treatment. Outpatients with MDD were randomly assigned to sertraline (up to 150 mg per day) (N=43) or placebo (N=46) in a double-blind 4-week trial. Baseline serum samples were profiled using the liquid chromatography electrochemical array; the output was digitized to create a ‘digital map' of the entire measurable response for a particular sample. Response was defined as ⩾50% reduction baseline to week 4 in the 17-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression total score. Models were built using the one-out method for cross-validation. Multivariate analyses showed that metabolic profiles partially separated responders and non-responders to sertraline or to placebo. For the sertraline models, the overall correct classification rate was 81% whereas it was 72% for the placebo models. Several pathways were implicated in separation of responders and non-responders on sertraline and on placebo including phenylalanine, tryptophan, purine and tocopherol. Dihydroxyphenylacetic acid, tocopherols and serotonin were common metabolites in separating responders and non-responders to both drug and placebo. Pretreatment metabotypes may predict which depressed patients will respond to acute treatment (4 weeks) with sertraline or placebo. Some pathways were informative for both treatments whereas other pathways were unique in predicting response to either sertraline or placebo. Metabolomics may inform the biochemical basis for the early efficacy of sertraline

Association between mental health conditions and rehospitalization, mortality, and functional outcomes in patients with stroke following inpatient rehabilitation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Limited evidence exists regarding the association of pre-existing mental health conditions in patients with stroke and stroke outcomes such as rehospitalization, mortality, and function. We examined the association between mental health conditions and rehospitalization, mortality, and functional outcomes in patients with stroke following inpatient rehabilitation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Our observational study used the 2001 VA Integrated Stroke Outcomes database of 2162 patients with stroke who underwent rehabilitation at a Veterans Affairs Medical Center.</p> <p>Separate models were fit to our outcome measures that included 6-month rehospitalization or death, 6-month mortality post-discharge, and functional outcomes post inpatient rehabilitation as a function of number and type of mental health conditions. The models controlled for patient socio-demographics, length of stay, functional status, and rehabilitation setting.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Patients had an average age of 68 years. Patients with stroke and two or more mental health conditions were more likely to be readmitted or die compared to patients with no conditions (OR: 1.44, p = 0.04). Depression and anxiety were associated with a greater likelihood of rehospitalization or death (OR: 1.33, p = 0.04; OR:1.47, p = 0.03). Patients with anxiety were more likely to die at six months (OR: 2.49, p = 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Patients with stroke with pre-existing mental health conditions may need additional psychotherapy interventions, which may potentially improve stroke outcomes post-hospitalization.</p

North Atlantic Climate Variability: Phenomena, Impacts and Mechanisms

Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Tropical Atlantic dominate the climate of the North Atlantic sector, the underlying ocean and surrounding continents on interannual to decadal time scales. Here we review these phenomena, their climatic impacts and our present state of understanding of their underlying caus

Pharmacometabolomics of Response to Sertraline and to Placebo in Major Depressive Disorder - Possible Role for Methoxyindole Pathway

10.1371/journal.pone.0068283PLoS ONE87-POLN

Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change

Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1{\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global warming. Thus goals to limit human-made warming to 2{\deg}C are not sufficient - they are prescriptions for disaster. Ice sheet disintegration is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. We suggest that ice sheet mass loss, if warming continues unabated, will be characterized better by a doubling time for mass loss rate than by a linear trend. Satellite gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level rise this century. Observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss supports our conclusion that Earth's temperature now exceeds the mean Holocene value. Rapid reduction of fossil fuel emissions is required for humanity to succeed in preserving a planet resembling the one on which civilization developed.Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures; final version accepted for publication in "Climate Change at the Eve of the Second Decade of the Century: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects: Proceedings of Milutin Milankovitch 130th Anniversary Symposium" (eds. Berger, Mesinger and Sijaci

Cyclic Vomiting Syndrome in 41 adults: the illness, the patients, and problems of management

BACKGROUND: Cyclic Vomiting Syndrome (CVS) is a disorder characterized by recurrent, stereotypic episodes of incapacitating nausea, vomiting and other symptoms, separated by intervals of comparative wellness. This report describes the clinical features, co-morbidities and problems encountered in management of 41 adult patients who met the diagnostic criteria for CVS. METHODS: This is a retrospective study of adults with CVS seen between 1994 and 2003. Follow-up data were obtained by mailed questionnaires. RESULTS: Age of onset ranged from 2 to 49 years. The duration of CVS at the time of consultation ranged from less than 1 year to 49 years. CVS episodes were stereotypic in respect of their hours of onset, symptomatology and length. Ninety-three percent of patients had recognizable prodromes. Half of the patients experienced a constellation of symptoms consisting of CVS episodes, migraine diathesis, inter-episodic dyspeptic nausea and a history of panic attacks. Deterioration in the course of CVS is indicated by coalescence of episodes in time. The prognosis of CVS is favorable in the majority of patients. CONCLUSION: CVS is a disabling disorder affecting adults as well as children. Because its occurrence in adults is little known, patients experience delayed or mis-diagnosis and ineffectual, sometimes inappropriately invasive management

Reducing depression in older home care clients: design of a prospective study of a nurse-led interprofessional mental health promotion intervention

Abstract Background Very little research has been conducted in the area of depression among older home care clients using personal support services. These older adults are particularly vulnerable to depression because of decreased cognition, comorbid chronic conditions, functional limitations, lack of social support, and reduced access to health services. To date, research has focused on collaborative, nurse-led depression care programs among older adults in primary care settings. Optimal management of depression among older home care clients is not currently known. The objective of this study is to evaluate the feasibility, acceptability and effectiveness of a 6-month nurse-led, interprofessional mental health promotion intervention aimed at older home care clients with depressive symptoms using personal support services. Methods/Design This one-group pre-test post-test study aims to recruit a total of 250 long-stay (> 60 days) home care clients, 70 years or older, with depressive symptoms who are receiving personal support services through a home care program in Ontario, Canada. The nurse-led intervention is a multi-faceted 6-month program led by a Registered Nurse that involves regular home visits, monthly case conferences, and evidence-based assessment and management of depression using an interprofessional approach. The primary outcome is the change in severity of depressive symptoms from baseline to 6 months using the Centre for Epidemiological Studies in Depression Scale. Secondary outcomes include changes in the prevalence of depressive symptoms and anxiety, health-related quality of life, cognitive function, and the rate and appropriateness of depression treatment from baseline to 12 months. Changes in the costs of use of health services will be assessed from a societal perspective. Descriptive and qualitative data will be collected to examine the feasibility and acceptability of the intervention and identify barriers and facilitators to implementation. Discussion Data collection began in May 2010 and is expected to be completed by July 2012. A collaborative nurse-led strategy may provide a feasible, acceptable and effective means for improving the health of older home care clients by improving the prevention, recognition, and management of depression in this vulnerable population. The challenges involved in designing a practical, transferable and sustainable nurse-led intervention in home care are also discussed. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT0140792