Circle diffeomorphisms forced by expanding circle maps

We discuss the dynamics of skew product maps defined by circle diffeomorphisms forced by expanding circle maps. We construct an open class of such systems that are robustly topologically mixing and for which almost all points in the same fiber converge under iteration. This property follows from the construction of an invariant attracting graph in the natural extension, a skew product of circle diffeomorphisms forced by a solenoid homeomorphism

Reconstructing firm-level interactions in the Dutch input–output network from production constraints

Recent crises have shown that the knowledge of the structure of input–output networks, at the firm level, is crucial when studying economic resilience from the microscopic point of view of firms that try to rewire their connections under supply and demand constraints. Unfortunately, empirical inter-firm network data are protected by confidentiality, hence rarely accessible. The available methods for network reconstruction from partial information treat all pairs of nodes as potentially interacting, thereby overestimating the rewiring capabilities of the system and the implied resilience. Here, we use two big data sets of transactions in the Netherlands to represent a large portion of the Dutch inter-firm network and document its properties. We, then, introduce a generalized maximum-entropy reconstruction method that preserves the production function of each firm in the data, i.e. the input and output flows of each node for each product type. We confirm that the new method becomes increasingly more reliable in reconstructing the empirical network as a finer product resolution is considered and can, therefore, be used as a realistic generative model of inter-firm networks with fine production constraints. Moreover, the likelihood of the model directly enumerates the number of alternative network configurations that leave each firm in its current production state, thereby estimating the reduction in the rewiring capability of the system implied by the observed input–output constraints

Reconstructing firm-level interactions: the Dutch input-output network

Recent crises have shown that the knowledge of the structure of input-output networks at the firm level is crucial when studying economic resilience from the microscopic point of view of firms that rewire their connections under supply and demand shocks. Unfortunately, empirical inter-firm network data are rarely accessible and protected by confidentiality. The available methods of network reconstruction from partial information, which have been devised for financial exposures, are inadequate for inter-firm relationships because they treat all pairs of nodes as potentially interacting, thereby overestimating the rewiring capabilities of the system. Here we use two big data sets of transactions in the Netherlands to represent a large portion of the Dutch inter-firm network and document the properties of one of the few analysed networks of this kind. We, then, introduce a generalized maximum-entropy reconstruction method that preserves the production function of each firm in the data, i.e. the input and output flows of each node for each product type. We confirm that the new method becomes increasingly more reliable as a finer product resolution is considered and can therefore be used as a generative model of inter-firm networks with fine production constraints. The likelihood of the model, being related to the entropy, proxies the rewiring capability of the system for a fixed input-output configuration.Comment: main text: 26 pages, 9 figures; supplementary material 21 pages, 9 figure

Representation of Markov chains by random maps: existence and regularity conditions

We systematically investigate the problem of representing Markov chains by families of random maps, and which regularity of these maps can be achieved depending on the properties of the probability measures. Our key idea is to use techniques from optimal transport to select optimal such maps. Optimal transport theory also tells us how convexity properties of the supports of the measures translate into regularity properties of the maps via Legendre transforms. Thus, from this scheme, we cannot only deduce the representation by measurable random maps, but we can also obtain conditions for the representation by continuous random maps. Finally, we present conditions for the representation of Markov chain by random diffeomorphisms.Comment: 22 pages, several changes from the previous version including extended discussion of many detail

Climate dynamics and fluid mechanics: Natural variability and related uncertainties

The purpose of this review-and-research paper is twofold: (i) to review the role played in climate dynamics by fluid-dynamical models; and (ii) to contribute to the understanding and reduction of the uncertainties in future climate-change projections. To illustrate the first point, we focus on the large-scale, wind-driven flow of the mid-latitude oceans which contribute in a crucial way to Earth's climate, and to changes therein. We study the low-frequency variability (LFV) of the wind-driven, double-gyre circulation in mid-latitude ocean basins, via the bifurcation sequence that leads from steady states through periodic solutions and on to the chaotic, irregular flows documented in the observations. This sequence involves local, pitchfork and Hopf bifurcations, as well as global, homoclinic ones. The natural climate variability induced by the LFV of the ocean circulation is but one of the causes of uncertainties in climate projections. Another major cause of such uncertainties could reside in the structural instability in the topological sense, of the equations governing climate dynamics, including but not restricted to those of atmospheric and ocean dynamics. We propose a novel approach to understand, and possibly reduce, these uncertainties, based on the concepts and methods of random dynamical systems theory. As a very first step, we study the effect of noise on the topological classes of the Arnol'd family of circle maps, a paradigmatic model of frequency locking as occurring in the nonlinear interactions between the El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and the seasonal cycle. It is shown that the maps' fine-grained resonant landscape is smoothed by the noise, thus permitting their coarse-grained classification. This result is consistent with stabilizing effects of stochastic parametrization obtained in modeling of ENSO phenomenon via some general circulation models.Comment: Invited survey paper for Special Issue on The Euler Equations: 250 Years On, in Physica D: Nonlinear phenomen

Dynamics and bifurcations of random circle diffeomorphisms

We discuss iterates of random circle diffeomorphisms with identically distributed noise, where the noise is bounded and absolutely continuous. Using arguments of B. Deroin, V.A. Kleptsyn and A. Navas, we provide precise conditions under which random attracting fixed points or random attracting periodic orbits exist. Bifurcations leading to an explosion of the support of a stationary measure from a union of intervals to the circle are treated. We show that this typically involves a transition from a unique random attracting periodic orbit to a unique random attracting fixed point