Sunlight, clouds, sea ice, albedo, and the radiative budget: the umbrella versus the blanket

The surface radiation budget of the Arctic Ocean plays a central role in summer ice melt and is governed by clouds and surface albedo. I calculated the net radiation flux for a range of albedos under sunny and cloudy skies and determined the break-even value, where the net radiation is the same for cloudy and sunny skies. Break-even albedos range from 0.30 in September to 0.58 in July. For snow-covered or bare ice, sunny skies always result in less radiative heat input. In contrast, leads always have, and ponds usually have, more radiative input under sunny skies than cloudy skies. Snow-covered ice has a net radiation flux that is negative or near zero under sunny skies, resulting in radiative cooling. Areally averaged albedos for sea ice in July result in a smaller net radiation flux under cloudy skies. For May, June, August, and September, the net radiation is smaller under sunny skies

Transition in the Fractal Geometry of Arctic Melt Ponds

During the Arctic melt season, the sea ice surface undergoes a remarkable transformation from vast expanses of snow covered ice to complex mosaics of ice and melt ponds. Sea ice albedo, a key parameter in climate modeling, is determined by the complex evolution of melt pond configurations. In fact, ice–albedo feedback has played a major role in the recent declines of the summer Arctic sea ice pack. However, understanding melt pond evolution remains a significant challenge to improving climate projections. By analyzing area–perimeter data from hundreds of thousands of melt ponds, we find here an unexpected separation of scales, where pond fractal dimension D transitions from 1 to 2 around a critical length scale of 100 m2 in area. Pond complexity increases rapidly through the transition as smaller ponds coalesce to form large connected regions, and reaches a maximum for ponds larger than 1000 m2, whose boundaries resemble space-filling curves, with D ≈ 2. These universal features of Arctic melt pond evolution are similar to phase transitions in statistical physics. The results impact sea ice albedo, the transmitted radiation fields under melting sea ice, the heat balance of sea ice and the upper ocean, and biological productivity such as under ice phytoplankton blooms

Arctic system on trajectory to new state

The Arctic system is moving toward a new state that falls outside the envelope of glacial-interglacial fluctuations that prevailed during recent Earth history. This future Arctic is likely to have dramatically less permanent ice than exists at present. At the present rate of change, a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean within a century is a real possibility, a state not witnessed for at least a million years. The change appears to be driven largely by feedback-enhanced global climate warming, and there seem to be few, if any processes or feedbacks within the Arctic system that are capable of altering the trajectory toward this “super interglacial” state

Changes in the annual sea ice freeze–thaw cycle in the Arctic Ocean from 2001 to 2018

The annual sea ice freeze–thaw cycle plays a crucial role in the Arctic atmosphere—ice–ocean system, regulating the seasonal energy balance of sea ice and the underlying upper-ocean. Previous studies of the sea ice freeze–thaw cycle were often based on limited accessible in situ or easily available remotely sensed observations of the surface. To better understand the responses of the sea ice to climate change and its coupling to the upper ocean, we combine measurements of the ice surface and bottom using multisource data to investigate the temporal and spatial variations in the freeze–thaw cycle of Arctic sea ice. Observations by 69 sea ice mass balance buoys (IMBs) collected from 2001 to 2018 revealed that the average ice basal melt onset in the Beaufort Gyre occurred on 23 May (±6 d), approximately 17 d earlier than the surface melt onset. The average ice basal melt onset in the central Arctic Ocean occurred on 17 June (±9 d), which was comparable with the surface melt onset. This difference was mainly attributed to the distinct seasonal variations of oceanic heat available to sea ice melt between the two regions. The overall average onset of basal ice growth of the pan Arctic Ocean occurred on 14 November (±21 d), lagging approximately 3 months behind the surface freeze onset. This temporal delay was caused by a combination of cooling the sea ice, the ocean mixed layer, and the ocean subsurface layer, as well as the thermal buffering of snow atop the ice. In the Beaufort Gyre region, both (Lagrangian) IMB observations (2001–2018) and (Eulerian) moored upward-looking sonar (ULS) observations (2003–2018) revealed a trend towards earlier basal melt onset, mainly linked to the earlier warming of the surface ocean. A trend towards earlier onset of basal ice growth was also identified from the IMB observations (multiyear ice), which we attributed to the overall reduction of ice thickness. In contrast, a trend towards delayed onset of basal ice growth was identified from the ULS observations, which was explained by the fact that the ice cover melted almost entirely by the end of summer in recent years.</p

Temporal and spatial characteristics of ozone depletion events from measurements in the Arctic

Following polar sunrise in the Arctic springtime, tropospheric ozone episodically decreases rapidly to near-zero levels during ozone depletion events (ODEs). Many uncertainties remain in our understanding of ODE characteristics, including the temporal and spatial scales, as well as environmental drivers. Measurements of ozone, bromine monoxide (BrO), and meteorology were obtained during several deployments of autonomous, ice-tethered buoys (O-Buoys) from both coastal sites and over the Arctic Ocean; these data were used to characterize observed ODEs. Detected decreases in surface ozone levels during the onset of ODEs corresponded to a median estimated apparent ozone depletion timescale (based on both chemistry and the advection of O₃-depleted air) of 11 h. If assumed to be dominated by chemical mechanisms, these timescales would correspond to larger-than-observed BrO mole fractions based on known chemistry and assumed other radical levels. Using backward air mass trajectories and an assumption that transport mechanisms dominate observations, the spatial scales for ODEs (defined by time periods in which ozone levels ≤15 nmol mol⁻¹) were estimated to be 877 km (median), while areas estimated to represent major ozone depletions (<10 nmol mol⁻¹) had dimensions of 282 km (median). These observations point to a heterogeneous boundary layer with localized regions of active, ozone-destroying halogen chemistry, interspersed among larger regions of previously depleted air that retain reduced ozone levels through hindered atmospheric mixing. Based on the estimated size distribution, Monte Carlo simulations showed it was statistically possible that all ODEs observed could have originated upwind, followed by transport to the measurement site. Local wind speed averages were low during most ODEs (median of ~3.6 m s⁻¹), and there was no apparent dependence on local temperature

A broad spectral, interdisciplinary investigation of the electromagnetic properties of sea ice

This paper highlights the interrelationship of research completed by a team of investigators and presented in the several individual papers comprising this Special Section on the Office of Naval Research (ONR), Arlington, VA, Sponsored Sea Ice Electromagnetics Accelerated Research Initiative (ARI). The objectives of the initiative were the following: 1) understand the mechanisms and processes that link the morphological and physical properties of sea ice to its electromagnetic (EM) characteristics; 2) develop and verify predictive models for the interaction of visible, infrared, and microwave radiation with sea ice; 3) develop and verify inverse scattering techniques applicable to problems involving the interaction of EM radiation with sea ice. Guiding principles for the program were that all EM data be taken with concurrent physical property data (salinity, density, roughness, etc.) and that broad spectral data be acquired in as nearly a simultaneous fashion as possible. Over 30 investigators participated in laboratory, field, and modeling studies that spanned the EM spectrum from radio to ultraviolet wavelengths. An interdisciplinary approach that brought together sea ice physicists, remote-sensing experts tin EM measurements), and forward and inverse modelers (primarily mathematicians and EM theorists) was a hallmark of the program. Along with describing results from experiments and modeling efforts, possible paradigms for using broad spectral data in developing algorithms for analyzing remote-sensing data in terms of ice concentration, age, type, and possibly thickness are briefly discussed

Mapping Potential Timing of Ice Algal Blooms From Satellite

As Arctic sea ice and its overlying snow cover thin, more light penetrates into the ice and upper ocean, shifting the phenology of algal growth within the bottom of sea ice, with cascading impacts on higher trophic levels of the Arctic marine ecosystem. While field data or autonomous observatories provide direct measurements of the coupled sea ice-algal system, they are limited in space and time. Satellite observations of key sea ice variables that control the amount of light penetrating through sea ice offer the possibility to map the under-ice light field across the entire Arctic basin. This study provides the first satellite-based estimates of potential sea ice-associated algal bloom onset dates since the launch of CryoSat-2 and explores how a changing snowpack may have shifted bloom onset timings over the last four decades

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/

Arctic Sea Ice in Transformation: A Review of Recent Observed Changes and Impacts on Biology and Human Activity

Sea ice in the Arctic is one of the most rapidly changing components of the global climate system. Over the past few decades, summer areal extent has declined over 30, and all months show statistically significant declining trends. New satellite missions and techniques have greatly expanded information on sea ice thickness, but many uncertainties remain in the satellite data and long-term records are sparse. However, thickness observations and other satellite-derived data indicate a 40 decline in thickness, due in large part to the loss of thicker, older ice cover. The changes in sea ice are happening faster than models have projected. With continued increasing temperatures, summer ice-free conditions are likely sometime in the coming decades, though there are substantial uncertainties in the exact timing and high interannual variability will remain as sea ice decreases. The changes in Arctic sea ice are already having an impact on flora and fauna in the Arctic. Some species will face increasing challenges in the future, while new habitat will open up for other species. The changes are also affecting peoples living and working in the Arctic. Native communities are facing challenges to their traditional ways of life, while new opportunities open for shipping, fishing, and natural resource extraction

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes