Coulomb pre-stress and fault bends are ignored yet vital factors for earthquake triggering and hazard

Successive locations of individual large earthquakes (Mw>5.5) over years to centuries can be difficult to explain with simple Coulomb Stress Transfer (CST) because it is common for seismicity to circumvent nearest-neighbour along-strike faults where coseismic CST is greatest. We demonstrate that Coulomb pre-stress (the cumulative CST from multiple earthquakes and interseismic loading on non-planar faults) may explain this, evidenced by study of a 667-year historical record of earthquakes in central Italy. Heterogeneity in Coulomb pre-stresses across the fault system is >±50 bars, whereas coseismic CST is <±2 bars, so the latter will rarely overwhelm the former, explaining why historical earthquakes rarely rupture nearest neighbor faults. However, earthquakes do tend to occur where the cumulative coseismic and interseismic CST is positive, although there are notable examples where earthquake propagate across negatively stressed portions of faults. Hence Coulomb pre-stress calculated for non-planar faults is an ignored yet vital factor for earthquake triggering

The Role of Tourism and Recreation in the Spread of Non-Native Species: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Managing the pathways by which non-native species are introduced and spread is considered the most effective way of preventing species invasions. Tourism and outdoor recreation involve the frequent congregation of people, vehicles and vessels from geographically diverse areas. They are therefore perceived to be major pathways for the movement of non-native species, and ones that will become increasingly important with the continued growth of these sectors. However, a global assessment of the relationship between tourism activities and the introduction of non-native species–particularly in freshwater and marine environments–is lacking. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the impact of tourism and outdoor recreation on non-native species in terrestrial, marine and freshwater environments. Our results provide quantitative evidence that the abundance and richness of non-native species are significantly higher in sites where tourist activities take place than in control sites. The pattern was consistent across terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments; across a variety of vectors (e.g. horses, hikers, yachts); and across a range of taxonomic groups. These results highlight the need for widespread biosecurity interventions to prevent the inadvertent introduction of invasive non-native species (INNS) as the tourism and outdoor recreation sectors grow

Observations of Lyα\alpha Emitters at High Redshift

In this series of lectures, I review our observational understanding of high-$z$ Ly$\alpha$ emitters (LAEs) and relevant scientific topics. Since the discovery of LAEs in the late 1990s, more than ten (one) thousand(s) of LAEs have been identified photometrically (spectroscopically) at $z\sim 0$ to $z\sim 10$. These large samples of LAEs are useful to address two major astrophysical issues, galaxy formation and cosmic reionization. Statistical studies have revealed the general picture of LAEs' physical properties: young stellar populations, remarkable luminosity function evolutions, compact morphologies, highly ionized inter-stellar media (ISM) with low metal/dust contents, low masses of dark-matter halos. Typical LAEs represent low-mass high-$z$ galaxies, high-$z$ analogs of dwarf galaxies, some of which are thought to be candidates of population III galaxies. These observational studies have also pinpointed rare bright Ly$\alpha$ sources extended over $\sim 10-100$ kpc, dubbed Ly$\alpha$ blobs, whose physical origins are under debate. LAEs are used as probes of cosmic reionization history through the Ly$\alpha$ damping wing absorption given by the neutral hydrogen of the inter-galactic medium (IGM), which complement the cosmic microwave background radiation and 21cm observations. The low-mass and highly-ionized population of LAEs can be major sources of cosmic reionization. The budget of ionizing photons for cosmic reionization has been constrained, although there remain large observational uncertainties in the parameters. Beyond galaxy formation and cosmic reionization, several new usages of LAEs for science frontiers have been suggested such as the distribution of {\sc Hi} gas in the circum-galactic medium and filaments of large-scale structures. On-going programs and future telescope projects, such as JWST, ELTs, and SKA, will push the horizons of the science frontiers.Comment: Lecture notes for `Lyman-alpha as an Astrophysical and Cosmological Tool', Saas-Fee Advanced Course 46. Verhamme, A., North, P., Cantalupo, S., & Atek, H. (eds.) --- 147 pages, 103 figures. Abstract abridged. Link to the lecture program including the video recording and ppt files : https://obswww.unige.ch/Courses/saas-fee-2016/program.cg

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe

Cost-effectiveness of a cardiac contractility modulation device in heart failure with normal QRS duration

Aims The objective of this paper is to assess whether cardiac contractility modulation (via the Optimizer System) plus standard of care (SoC) is a cost‐effective treatment for people with heart failure [New York Heart Association (NYHA) III, left ventricular ejection fraction of 25–45%, and narrow QRS] compared against SoC alone from the perspective of the English National Health Service. Methods and results We developed a regression equation‐based cost‐effectiveness model, using individual patient data from three randomized control trials (FIX‐HF‐5 Phases 1 and 2, and FIX‐HF‐5C) to populate the majority of parameters. A series of regression equations predicted NYHA class over time, mortality, all‐cause hospitalization rates, and health‐related quality of life. We conducted the analysis in line with the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence reference case, modelling costs from an English National Health Service perspective, and considering outcomes in quality‐adjusted life years (QALYs) over a patient lifetime perspective. Our base case analysis produced an incremental cost per additional QALY of GBP22 988 (€25 750) when comparing Optimizer + SoC to SoC alone. This result was not sensitive to parameter uncertainty but was sensitive to the time horizon over which costs and QALYs were captured and the duration over which a survival benefit with Optimizer + SoC can be assumed to apply. Conclusions Cardiac contractility modulation is likely to be cost‐effective in people with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, NYHA III, and narrow QRS, provided that the treatment benefit can be maintained beyond the duration of the existing clinical trial follow‐up. This analysis supports the current recommendations of the European Society of Cardiology that this therapy may be considered for such patients

Ecology of Leptocoris Hahn (Hemiptera: Rhopalidae) Soapberry Bugs in Australia

Soapberry bugs are worldwide seed predators of plants in the family Sapindaceae. Australian sapinds are diverse and widespread, consisting of about 200 native trees and shrubs. This flora also includes two introduced environmental weeds, plus cultivated lychee (Litchi chinensis Sonn.), longan (Dimocarpus longan Lour.) and rambutan (Nephelium lappaceum L.). Accordingly, Australian soapberry bugs may be significant in ecology, conservation and agriculture. Here we provide the first account of their ecology. We find five species of Leptocoris Hahn in Australia, and list sapinds that do and do not serve as reproductive hosts. From museum and field records we map the continental distributions of the insects and primary hosts. Frequency of occupation varies among host species, and the number of hosts varies among the insects. In addition, differences in body size and beak length are related to host use. For example, the long-beaked Leptocoris tagalicus Burmeister is highly polyphagous in eastern rainforests, where it occurs on at least 10 native and non-native hosts. It aggregates on hosts with immature fruit and commences feeding before fruits dehisce. Most of its continental range, however, matches that of a single dryland tree, Atalaya hemiglauca F. Muell., which has comparatively unprotected seeds. The taxon includes a smaller and shorter-beaked form that is closely associated with Atalaya, and appears to be taxonomically distinct. The other widespread soapberry bug is the endemic Leptocoris mitellatus Bergroth. It too is short-beaked, and colonises hosts phenologically later than L. tagalicus, as seeds become more accessible in open capsules. Continentally its distribution is more southerly and corresponds mainly to that of Alectryon oleifolius Desf. Among all host species, the non-native environmental weeds Cardiospermum L. and Koelreuteria Laxm. are most consistently attacked, principally by L. tagalicus. These recent host shifts have biocontrol implications. In contrast, the sapinds planted as fruit crops appear to be less frequently used at present and mainly by the longer-beaked species