Historical tropospheric and stratospheric ozone radiative forcing using the CMIP6 database

We calculate ozone radiative forcing (RF) and stratospheric temperature adjustments for the period 1850-2014 using the newly availableCMIP6 ozone dataset. The CMIP6 total ozone RF (1850s-2000s) is 0.28+/-0.17 W m-2 (which is 80% higher than our CMIP5 estimation), and 0.30+/-0.17 W m-2 out to the present day (2014). The total ozone RF grows rapidly until the 1970s, slows towards the 2000s, and shows a renewed growth thereafter. Since the 1990s the shortwave RF exceeds the longwave RF. Global stratospheric ozone RF is positive between 1930 and 1970 and then turns negative, but remains positive in the Northern Hemisphere throughout. Derived stratospheric temperature changes show a localized cooling in the subtropical lower stratosphere due to tropospheric ozone increases, and cooling in the upper stratosphere due to ozone depletion by more than 1K already prior to the satellite era (1980), and by more than 2K out to the present day(2014)

Separating the shortwave and longwave components of greenhouse gas radiative forcing

Many important greenhouse gases (including water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane and ozone) absorb solar radiation. When gas concentrations change, this absorption exerts a radiative forcing that modifies the thermal infrared (‘longwave’) radiative forcing which is predominant for most gases (ozone being a major exception). The nature of the solar forcing differs from the longwave forcing in several ways. For example, the sign of the instantaneous solar forcing can differ between the tropopause and top-of-atmosphere, and the sign can differ between gases. In addition, a significant part of the solar forcing can be manifested in the longwave, following stratospheric temperature adjustment, which can counteract or enhance the instantaneous solar forcing. Here the nature of solar forcing is examined via a mixture of idealised and more realistic calculations, which consider the effect of perturbations in carbon dioxide, methane and ozone. An apparent contradiction in the sign of the solar forcing of carbon dioxide is resolved; it is shown to be negative, reducing the net carbon dioxide forcing by about 2.3%. The relevance of this work to the effective radiative forcing concept is also discussed

Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100

Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from ∼300 DU in 1850 to ∼ 305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼ 10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by ∼ 0.5 ppmv at 70 hPa. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼ 0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼ 2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions. © Author(s) 2021

AeroCom phase III multi-model evaluation of the aerosol life cycle and optical properties using ground- and space-based remote sensing as well as surface in situ observations

Within the framework of the AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) initiative, the state-of-the-art modelling of aerosol optical properties is assessed from 14 global models participating in the phase III control experiment (AP3). The models are similar to CMIP6/AerChemMIP Earth System Models (ESMs) and provide a robust multi-model ensemble. Inter-model spread of aerosol species lifetimes and emissions appears to be similar to that of mass extinction coefficients (MECs), suggesting that aerosol optical depth (AOD) uncertainties are associated with a broad spectrum of parameterised aerosol processes. Total AOD is approximately the same as in AeroCom phase I (AP1) simulations. However, we find a 50% decrease in the optical depth (OD) of black carbon (BC), attributable to a combination of decreased emissions and lifetimes. Relative contributions from sea salt (SS) and dust (DU) have shifted from being approximately equal in AP1 to SS contributing about 2/3 of the natural AOD in AP3. This shift is linked with a decrease in DU mass burden, a lower DU MEC, and a slight decrease in DU lifetime, suggesting coarser DU particle sizes in AP3 compared to AP1. Relative to observations, the AP3 ensemble median and most of the participating models underestimate all aerosol optical properties investigated, that is, total AOD as well as fine and coarse AOD (AOD(f), AOD(c)), Angstrom exponent (AE), dry surface scattering (SCdry), and absorption (AC(dry)) coefficients. Compared to AERONET, the models underestimate total AOD by ca. 21% +/- 20% (as inferred from the ensemble median and interquartile range). Against satellite data, the ensemble AOD biases range from -37% (MODIS-Terra) to -16% (MERGED-FMI, a multi-satellite AOD product), which we explain by differences between individual satellites and AERONET measurements themselves. Correlation coefficients (R) between model and observation AOD records are generally high (R > 0.75), suggesting that the models are capable of capturing spatiotemporal variations in AOD. We find a much larger underestimate in coarse AOD(c) (similar to-45% +/- 25 %) than in fine AOD(f) (similar to-15% +/- 25 %) with slightly increased inter-model spread compared to total AOD. These results indicate problems in the modelling of DU and SS. The AOD(c) bias is likely due to missing DU over continental land masses (particularly over the United States, SE Asia, and S. America), while marine AERONET sites and the AATSR SU satellite data suggest more moderate oceanic biases in AOD(c). Column AEs are underestimated by about 10% +/- 16 %. For situations in which measurements show AE > 2, models underestimate AERONET AE by ca. 35 %. In contrast, all models (but one) exhibit large overestimates in AE when coarse aerosol dominates (bias ca. +140% if observed AE < 0.5). Simulated AE does not span the observed AE variability. These results indicate that models overestimate particle size (or underestimate the fine-mode fraction) for fine-dominated aerosol and underestimate size (or overestimate the fine-mode fraction) for coarse-dominated aerosol. This must have implications for lifetime, water uptake, scattering enhancement, and the aerosol radiative effect, which we can not quantify at this moment. Comparison against Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) in situ data results in mean bias and inter-model variations of -35% +/- 25% and -20% +/- 18% for SCdry and AC(dry), respectively. The larger underestimate of SCdry than AC(dry) suggests the models will simulate an aerosol single scattering albedo that is too low. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ambient air AOD is consistent with recent findings that models overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. The broadly consistent negative bias in AOD and surface scattering suggests an underestimate of aerosol radiative effects in current global aerosol models. Considerable inter-model diversity in the simulated optical properties is often found in regions that are, unfortunately, not or only sparsely covered by ground-based observations. This includes, for instance, the Sahara, Amazonia, central Australia, and the South Pacific. This highlights the need for a better site coverage in the observations, which would enable us to better assess the models, but also the performance of satellite products in these regions. Using fine-mode AOD as a proxy for present-day aerosol forcing estimates, our results suggest that models underestimate aerosol forcing by ca. -15 %, however, with a considerably large interquartile range, suggesting a spread between -35% and +10 %.Peer reviewe

Climate-driven chemistry and aerosol feedbacks in CMIP6 Earth system models

Feedbacks play a fundamental role in determining the magnitude of the response of the climate system to external forcing, such as from anthropogenic emissions. The latest generation of Earth system models include aerosol and chemistry components that interact with each other and with the biosphere. These interactions introduce a complex web of feedbacks which it is important to understand and quantify. This paper addresses multiple pathways for aerosol and chemical feedbacks in Earth system models. These focus on changes in natural emissions (dust, sea salt, di-methyl sulphide, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and lightning) and changes in reaction rates for methane and ozone chemistry. The feedback terms are then given by the sensitivity of a pathway to climate change multiplied by the radiative effect of the change. We find that the overall climate feedback through chemistry and aerosols is negative in the sixth coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) Earth system models due to increased negative forcing from aerosols in a climate with warmer surface temperatures following a quadrupling of CO2 concentrations. This is principally due to increased emissions of sea salt and BVOCs which are both sensitive to climate change, and cause strong negative radiative forcings. Increased chemical loss of ozone and methane also contributes to a negative feedback. However overall methane lifetime is expected to increase in a warmer climate due to increased BVOCs. Increased emissions of methane from wetlands would also offset some of the negative feedbacks. The CMIP6 experimental design did not allow the methane lifetime or methane emission changes to affect climate so we find a robust negative contribution from interactive aerosols and chemistry to climate sensitivity in CMIP6 Earth system models

Effective radiative forcing from emissions of reactive gases and aerosols – a multi-model comparison

This paper quantifies the pre-industrial (1850) to present-day (2014) effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic emissions of NOX, VOCs (including CO), SO2, NH3, black carbon, organic carbon, and concentrations of methane, N2O and ozone-depleting halocarbons, using CMIP6 models. Concentration and emission changes of reactive species can cause multiple changes in the composition of radiatively active species: tropospheric ozone, stratospheric ozone, stratospheric water vapour, secondary inorganic and organic aerosol and methane. Where possible we break down the ERFs from each emitted species into the contributions from the composition changes. The ERFs are calculated for each of the models that participated in the AerChemMIP experiments as part of the CMIP6 project, where the relevant model output was available. The 1850 to 2014 multi-model mean ERFs (± standard deviations) are -1.03 ± 0.37 Wm-2 for SO2 emissions, -0.25 ± 0.09 Wm-2 for organic carbon (OC), 0.15 ± 0.17 Wm-2 for black carbon (BC) and for NH3 it is -0.07 ± 0.01Wm-2. For the combined aerosols (in the piClim-aer experiment) it is -1.01 ±0.25 Wm-2. The multi-model means for the reactive well-mixed greenhouse gases (including any effects on ozone and aerosol chemistry) are 0.67 ± 0.17 Wm-2 for methane (CH4), 0.26 ± 0.07 Wm-2 for nitrous oxide (N2O) and 0.12 ± 0.2 Wm-2 for ozone-depleting halocarbons (HC). Emissions of the ozone precursors nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOC) and both together (O3) lead to ERFs of 0.14 ± 0.13 Wm-2, 0.09 ± 0.14 Wm-2 and 0.20 ± 0.07 Wm-2 respectively. The differences in ERFs calculated for the different models reflect differences in the complexity of their aerosol and chemistry schemes, especially in the case of methane where tropospheric chemistry captures increased forcing from ozone production

Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100

Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from ∼300 DU in 1850 to ∼ 305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼ 10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by ∼ 0.5 ppmv at 70 hPa. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼ 0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼ 2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions

Central nervous system involvement in systemic lupus erythematosus: data from the Spanish Society of Rheumatology Lupus Register (RELESSER)

Objectives: To analyze the prevalence, incidence, survival and contribution on mortality of major central nervous system (CNS) involvement in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods: Patients fulfilling the SLE 1997 ACR classification criteria from the multicentre, retrospective RELESSER-TRANS (Spanish Society of Rheumatology Lupus Register) were included. Prevalence, incidence and survival rates of major CNS neuropsychiatric (NP)-SLE as a group and the individual NP manifestations cere-brovascular disease (CVD), seizure, psychosis, organic brain syndrome and transverse myelitis were calculated. Furthermore, the contribution of these manifestations on mortality was analysed in Cox regression models adjusted for confounders. Results: A total of 3591 SLE patients were included. Of them, 412 (11.5%) developed a total of 522 major CNS NP-SLE manifestations. 61 patients (12%) with major CNS NP-SLE died. The annual mortality rate for patients with and without ever major CNS NP-SLE was 10.8% vs 3.8%, respectively. Individually, CVD (14%) and organic brain syndrome (15.5%) showed the highest mortality rates. The 10% mortality rate for patients with and without ever major CNS NP-SLE was reached after 12.3 vs 22.8 years, respectively. CVD (9.8 years) and organic brain syndrome (7.1 years) reached the 10% mortality rate earlier than other major CNS NP-SLE manifestations. Major CNS NP-SLE (HR 1.85, 1.29-2.67) and more specifically CVD (HR 2.17, 1.41-3.33) and organic brain syndrome (HR 2.11, 1.19-3.74) accounted as independent prognostic factors for poor survival. Conclusion: The presentation of major CNS NP-SLE during the disease course contributes to a higher mortality, which may differ depending on the individual NP manifestation. CVD and organic brain syndrome are associated with the highest mortality rates.Pathophysiology and treatment of rheumatic disease