Cost-benefit analysis and valuation uncertainty

This thesis addresses the economic trade-offs between hydropower and fish production, based on an empirical assessment of the costs and benefits of changing the water flow of the Ume/Vindel River in northern Sweden at a major hydropower plant in ways that would reduce its production of electricity but increase the number of wild salmon in the river. A theoretical framework for dynamic cost benefit analysis (CBA) is presented and applied to the salmon passage-hydropower production conflict. The approach has wider applicability than suggested here, and should be useful in other, similar contexts. To obtain estimates for the benefit of increasing the number of wild salmon the contingent valuation method (CVM) was applied. The CVM is a survey-based method developed for measuring values of non-market goods by using willingness to pay (WTP) questions. A new open-ended valuation question, the “classic and interval open-ended” (CIOE) question, was introduced to accommodate the fact that many people have an inability to state their preferences accurately. Interpretation of the resulting valuation uncertainty is more straightforward with this type of question than with other types of valuation question. There are other advantages as well. In addition, methods are introduced for: finding a WTP point estimate for the CIOE question; estimating lower and upper boundaries for the WTP; and for estimating confidence intervals for the total present benefit. An important element of the empirical analysis is that estimated changes in resource conditions are based on detailed river-specific data. The resource dynamic considerations were introduced into both the scenarios and the WTP questions, using an estimated salmon population model for the Vindel River as a base. A model predicting the effects of varying the water flows on the salmon’s migration behaviour was used to estimate the costs of increasing the number of salmon. A total of 1785 individuals received a questionnaire including the CIOE question; the response rate was 66%. Passive use (non-use) values are the major contributors to the benefit (96-517 MSEK) of increasing the wild salmon stock in the Vindel River. The sensitivity analysis suggests that the opportunity costs in terms of lost electricity are typically higher than the estimated benefits

Non-market valuation of the coastal environment - uniting political aims, ecological and economic knowledge

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires coastal water quality to be classified according to ecological indicators. In this paper, contingent valuation is used to estimate the value of improving the water quality status according to this classification, investigating if this type of holistic political-ecological measure can be related to and valued in monetary terms by the general public. A web-based survey was conducted in two study areas on the Swedish East and West coast. The paper focuses on eutrophication effects, such as bad water clarity, a decrease of bladder wrack stands and algae mats. These water quality elements affect recreational use of coastal areas. Relating to recreational use, two other environmental attributes are addressed – algae blooms and protection of marine areas in terms of e.g. restrictions for boat traffic. The restrictions scenario is also holistic in terms of several imposed restrictions, as well as tightly linked with existing policy. Conducting valuation studies based on a policy-determined measure is beneficial for decisionmakers but also for research e.g. in terms of data availability. It is concluded that these politically defined measures seem to work well as a basis for economic valuation. The respondents are in general both able to understand and to put a monetary value to the measures. This is an important first step, paving the ground for further studies. The monthly mean household WTP between the years 2010 – 2029 ranges from 61 to 108 SEK for improved water quality, from 54 to 84 SEK for less algae blooms and from 32 to 50 SEK for less noise and littering. Regarding noise and littering in archipelago areas in Northern Europe, this is to our knowledge the first WTP estimate that has been presented. The respondents from the East coast region express relatively high mean WTP values compared to the respondents on the West coast for all scenarios. The differences in mean WTP values between the study areas, which are reflected in the transfer errors, indicate that even though the coasts are similar in terms of use and environmental problems, and the respondents have many similar characteristics, a point estimate benefit transfer between the two coasts is not recommended unless high transfer errors are acceptable. WTP is affected by gender, membership of an NGO, whether or not the respondent has children, whether or not the respondent has a foreign background, frequency of visiting the area and whether or not the respondent uses a boat with an engine effect of more than 10 hp while visiting the area.non-market valuation; choice experiments; water framework directive

Benefit Transfer for Environmental Improvements in Coastal Areas: General vs. Specific Models

In this study, we used choice experiment data to analyze the accuracy of benefit transfer (BT) between two case study areas in Sweden for attributes relevant to the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive and special consideration zones in marine areas. The accuracy and reliability of a BT based on a model including only easily available socioeconomic information is similar to the accuracy of a BT based on a model that gives the best statistical fit, but requires time-consuming data collection. Further, the former model has almost as good a fit as the latter. The BT error varies significantly across the attributes, regardless of which model is used. The results are inconclusive as to whether socioeconomic adjustments improve transfer or not.Choice experiments; Benefits transfer; Water Framework Directive

Baltic Sea nutrient reduction : what should we aim for?

Nutrient load reductions are needed to improve the state of the Baltic Sea, but it is still under debate how they should be implemented. In this paper, we use data from an environmental valuation study conducted in all nine Baltic Sea states to investigate public preferences of relevance to three of the involved decision-dimensions: First, the roles of nitrogen versus phosphorus reductions causing different eutrophication effects; second, the role of time e the lag between actions to reduce nutrient loads and perceived improvements; and third; the spatial dimension and the roles of actions targeting the coastal and open sea environment and different sub-basins. Our findings indicate that respondents view and value the Baltic Sea environment as a whole, and are not focussed only on their local sea area, or a particular aspect of water quality. We argue that public preferences concerning these three perspectives should be one of the factors guiding marine policy. This requires considering the entire range of eutrophication effects, in coastal and open sea areas, and including long-term and short-term measures201

Literature syntheses to inform marine ecosystem management: lessons learned from stakeholder participation

Systematic literature syntheses are a key element in the scientific realm, considering the steadily growing amount of available knowledge. Involving stakeholders in the research process brings a wide range of advantages, like broadening the perspectives on the problem in question, increasing the relevance of results for policy- and decision-making, the public and other end-users and thus enhancing the impact and acceptance of research. While participatory approaches are on the rise, reflections on stakeholder involvement in systematic syntheses on environmental management are scarce. We reflect on the process of involving stakeholders with expertise also from outside academia during three literature syntheses with different foci of marine and coastal ecosystem services in the Baltic Sea. Our analysis is based on notes, e-mails, minutes and recordings of internal project meetings, interviews and workshops involving both researchers and stakeholders. We discuss the challenges the participatory approach introduced and develop lessons learned to support the planning of stakeholder engagement for future literature syntheses. We conclude that stakeholder identification, communication, collaboration and knowledge translation are highly time- and resource-intensive processes. Furthermore, appropriate training and experience are necessary for the design, execution and evaluation of participatory methods tailored to each project stage. Therefore, we underline the importance of adequate consideration of the required resources during project planning and implementation. To encourage and support valuable stakeholder engagement and knowledge exchange between the research community and actors of policy and practice, more appreciation of such efforts by funding institutions and within the wider scientific community is needed

Non-inhibitory levels of oxygen during cultivation increase freeze-drying stress tolerance in Limosilactobacillus reuteri DSM 17938

The physiological effects of oxygen on Limosilactobacillus reuteri DSM 17938 during cultivation and the ensuing properties of the freeze-dried probiotic product was investigated. On-line flow cytometry and k-means clustering gating was used to follow growth and viability in real time during cultivation. The bacterium tolerated aeration at 500 ml/min, with a growth rate of 0.74 ± 0.13 h-1 which demonstrated that low levels of oxygen did not influence the growth kinetics of the bacterium. Modulation of the redox metabolism was, however, seen already at non-inhibitory oxygen levels by 1.5-fold higher production of acetate and 1.5-fold lower ethanol production. A significantly higher survival rate in the freeze-dried product was observed for cells cultivated in presence of oxygen compared to absence of oxygen (61.8 ± 2.4 % vs 11.5 ± 4.3 %), coinciding with a higher degree of unsaturated fatty acids (UFA:SFA ratio of 10 for air sparged vs 3.59 for N2 sparged conditions.). Oxygen also resulted in improved bile tolerance and boosted 5’nucleotidase activity (370 U/L vs 240 U/L in N2 sparged conditions) but lower tolerance to acidic conditions compared bacteria grown under complete anaerobic conditions which survived up to 90 min of exposure at pH 2. Overall, our results indicate the controlled supply of oxygen during production may be used as means for probiotic activity optimisation of L. reuteri DSM 17938

The ERCC1/XPF endonuclease is required for completion of homologous recombination at DNA replication forks stalled by inter-strand cross-links

Both the ERCC1-XPF complex and the proteins involved in homoIogous recombination (HR) have critical roles in inter-strand cross-link (ICL) repair. Here, we report that mitomycin C-induced lesions inhibit replication fork elongation. Furthermore, mitomycin C-induced DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) are the result of the collapse of ICL-stalled replication forks. These are not formed through replication run off, as we show that mitomycin C or cisplatin-induced DNA lesions are not incised by global genome nucleotide excision repair (GGR). We also suggest that ICL-lesion repair is initiated either by replication or transcription, as the GGR does not incise ICL-lesions. Furthermore, we report that RAD51 foci are induced by cisplatin or mitomycin C independently of ERCC1, but that mitomycin C-induced HR measured in a reporter construct is impaired in ERCC1-defective cells. These data suggest that ERCC1–XPF plays a role in completion of HR in ICL repair. We also find no additional sensitivity to cisplatin by siRNA co-depletion of XRCC3 and ERCC1, showing that the two proteins act on the same pathway to promote survival

Oral Administration of Lactobacillus plantarum

Objective. To clarify the effect of Lactobacillus plantarum 299v on the salivary cortisol and salivary IgA levels in young adults under examination stress. Design. Forty-one students with an upcoming academic exam were included in a randomized double-blind, placebo-controlled study. The probiotic bacteria or the placebo product was administered in capsules once a day during 14 days. Saliva was collected and a perceived stress test was filled out at each sampling occasion. Saliva was collected for cortisol analysis by Electrochemiluminescence Immunoassay (ECLI) and salivary IgA was analysed by Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). Abundance of lactobacilli was evaluated by cultivation of saliva on selective medium and identification of L. plantarum 299v was done on randomly selected colonies by a random amplification of polymorphic DNA (RAPD) typing. Results. A significant difference in cortisol levels was found between the treatment group and the placebo group (P < 0.05), together with a significant increase in levels of lactobacilli in the treatment group compared with the placebo group (P < 0.001). No significant changes were found for salivary IgA. Conclusion. A probiotic bacterium with ability to reduce symptoms of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) prohibited increased levels of the stress marker cortisol during the examination period. The registration number of the study is NCT02974894, and the study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov

Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown in Eating Disorders: A Multicentre Collaborative International Study

Background. The COVID-19 lockdown has had a significant impact on mental health. Patients with eating disorders (ED) have been particularly vulnerable. Aims. (1) To explore changes in eating-related symptoms and general psychopathology during lockdown in patients with an ED from various European and Asian countries; and (2) to assess differences related to diagnostic ED subtypes, age, and geography. Methods. The sample comprised 829 participants, diagnosed with an ED according to DSM-5 criteria from specialized ED units in Europe and Asia. Participants were assessed using the COVID-19 Isolation Scale (CIES). Results. Patients with binge eating disorder (BED) experienced the highest impact on weight and ED symptoms in comparison with other ED subtypes during lockdown, whereas individuals with other specified feeding and eating disorders (OFSED) had greater deterioration in general psychological functioning than subjects with other ED subtypes. Finally, Asian and younger individuals appeared to be more resilient. Conclusions. The psychopathological changes in ED patients during the COVID-19 lockdown varied by cultural context and individual variation in age and ED diagnosis. Clinical services may need to target preventive measures and adapt therapeutic approaches for the most vulnerable patients

The FANCM:p.Arg658* truncating variant is associated with risk of triple-negative breast cancer.

Breast cancer is a common disease partially caused by genetic risk factors. Germline pathogenic variants in DNA repair genes BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, ATM, and CHEK2 are associated with breast cancer risk. FANCM, which encodes for a DNA translocase, has been proposed as a breast cancer predisposition gene, with greater effects for the ER-negative and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) subtypes. We tested the three recurrent protein-truncating variants FANCM:p.Arg658*, p.Gln1701*, and p.Arg1931* for association with breast cancer risk in 67,112 cases, 53,766 controls, and 26,662 carriers of pathogenic variants of BRCA1 or BRCA2. These three variants were also studied functionally by measuring survival and chromosome fragility in FANCM -/- patient-derived immortalized fibroblasts treated with diepoxybutane or olaparib. We observed that FANCM:p.Arg658* was associated with increased risk of ER-negative disease and TNBC (OR = 2.44, P = 0.034 and OR = 3.79; P = 0.009, respectively). In a country-restricted analysis, we confirmed the associations detected for FANCM:p.Arg658* and found that also FANCM:p.Arg1931* was associated with ER-negative breast cancer risk (OR = 1.96; P = 0.006). The functional results indicated that all three variants were deleterious affecting cell survival and chromosome stability with FANCM:p.Arg658* causing more severe phenotypes. In conclusion, we confirmed that the two rare FANCM deleterious variants p.Arg658* and p.Arg1931* are risk factors for ER-negative and TNBC subtypes. Overall our data suggest that the effect of truncating variants on breast cancer risk may depend on their position in the gene. Cell sensitivity to olaparib exposure, identifies a possible therapeutic option to treat FANCM-associated tumors